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FREE STUFF 02/12/17

I have 10 rated races today but the one I’m posting up in this section is what used to be known as the Hennessy.

It’s my favourite race of the season and hopefully I have this thing boxed off for you.

I would certainly be expecting a big run from the horse that fits from the point of view of Rating and profiling.

Best of luck

NEWBURY 3-00 – CLASS 1 – CHASE

* – WHISPER….+17
* – CONEYGREE….+12
T* – PLEASANT COMPANY….+9
* – AMERICAN….±0
MISSED APPROACH….-5
T* – BIGBADJOHN….-8
* – LABEL DES OBEAUX….-10
* – COGRY….-11
* – ROYAL VACATION….-16
BRAQUER D’OR….-16
* – PRESENT MAN….-17
H* – POTTERS LEGEND….-25
* – CAROLE’S DESTRIER….-35
* – DOUBLE ROSS….-38
H* – SOUTHFIELD ROYALE….-38
SINGLEFARMPAYMENT….-40
* – REGAL ENCORE….-40
VYTA DU ROC….-40
T – A GENIE IN ABOTTLE….-40
T – TOTAL RECALL….-40

NOTES: If….big, big if, CONEYGREE is on his “A” day then he has to run well….he is unbeaten in two previous visits to this track and he in unbeaten in two previous runs on the ground we have right now.

The big negative is his weight (see Profiling).

WHISPER has not tried this trip but he’s 2-4 ground, 1-2 track….looks absolutely rock solid if he likes the distance.

On the subject of trip, my third best is 3-4 over it….and 1-3 ground.

If I play my Ratings then it’s my top three but let’s see what Profiling says.

DUTCH:
20/80:
EXOTICS:
LAY:

PROFILING

Horses aged 6, 7 and 8 have won nine of the last 10 runnings of this:

AMERICAN
LABEL DES OBEAUX
A GENIE IN ABOTTLE
ROYAL VACATION
TOTAL RECALL
SINGLEFARMPAYMENT
PRESENT MAN
MISSED APPROACH
BIGBADJOHN
VYTA DU ROC
BRAQUER D’OR
COGRY
POTTERS LEGEND
SOUTHFIELD ROYALE
PILGRIMS BAY

Next we look at weight range:

Eight of the last 10 winners carried more than 11st but six of the eight carried less than 11st 6lb and so if we pluck those in the 11st – 11st 6lb weight range from those above, we are left with:

AMERICAN
LABEL DES OBEAUX

AMERICAN is a seven year old and just to let you know, five of the last 10 winners came from that age grouping. LABEL DES OBEAUX is a six year old and two of the last four winners came from that age grouping.

The market will help me pick from that pair and by virtue of the fact several of the last 10 winners went in priced shorter than 10/1, it has to be AMERICAN.

In my top six rated, too, so all looking good.

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION – AMERICAN – 20/80

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