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Today’s Ratings and Advice 04/11/17

I enjoyed that Class 1 race at Wetherby yesterday and also the fact that my top three rated were the first three past the winning post.

I would hope that’s an indication that, the better the race, the more accurate my work will be.

You only have to look at the Class 5 Uttoxeter 2-10pm result to see how much of a difference working with quality horses is, as opposed to those that are not.

My top rated MAID OF TUSCANY, was well supported in the market, Mulholland had booked Geraghty to ride, it was the only horse in the race with previous winning form on the going as was described, and it was beaten from the start, pulled up with four to jump.

The race was won by the 33/1 outsider, YASIR, whose previous run had come just over a week earlier, when he got thumped on the Wolverhampton all weather.

I had an e-mail from a new member asking me if he should consider my top rated horse a good bet, given it was miles clear on my figures.

My response was, “it’s a Class 5 and I take such races with a pinch of salt. I’d actually be more interested in the horse 12th best on my figures, that has travelled to the races and is wearing first time head gear”

That horse was DARLOA. It was seriously well supported in the ring and came to win it’s race, only to be done on the run in by that 33/1 shot. It finished second @ 10/1 but has been much bigger early doors.

My figures suggested we could lay the short priced favourite, KENYAN, and he blew out big time, finishing fourth @ 9/4.

Class 5 horses, eh.

HARRY FRY AND ASCOT

I have always subscribed to the “horses for courses” theory but here we have a “trainer for course”.

When Harry sends a hurdler to Ascot you take serious note. He has a 48% strike rate with them but his overall record at the track is seriously funky. More than 50% of anything he sends, hits the frame.

That makes AIR HORSE ONE very interesting in the 3-00. The horse is also rated second best on my figures, trade 9.4 on Betfair and looks a 20/80 on all known evidence.

His other hurdler racing there today is AMERICAN GIGOLO (12-40)

THE NEXT GREAT NH SIRE?

I’m becoming a bit of a breeding anorak these days and was very interested to read that Overbury Stud has purchased a horse to replace KAYF TARA.

The sire I’ll be looking out for over the next few years will be JACK HOBBS. If he does as well as the one he’s replacing, plenty of winners will be had.

A son of HALLING, he’s the best horse to retire and go straight to the NH ranks in Britain since KAYF TARA. He’s also from the family of ONE MAN’s grandsire, CONNAUGHT who was also runner up in a Derby.

TODAY

It is seriously good racing today and I’ve been like a kid in a sweetshop working on these races today.

You have 10 Rated races below and with one week left of my own self-imposed abstinence, I’m sorely tempted to break it and go to work today….just might, too….we’ll see.

Have a great day!

Kindest regards

Ron

OF INTEREST SELECTIONS

AL SHAHIR
(Wetherby 12-55)
CATHAL’S STAR
(Ayr 3-50)

TODAY’S “T-FACTOR” HORSES

Plenty today and best you simply scroll down and check, race by race.

TODAY’S RATINGS AND ADVICE

Please remember these are very much still “sighters”. Your patience will be rewarded!

WETHERBY 12-20 – CLASS 4 – CHASE

TH* – ZASTRA….+8
T* – DELGANY DEMON….-2
* – NORTONTHORPELEGEND….-9
* – TICKENWOLF….-11
TH – DAKLONDIKE….-11
* – BASFORD BEN….-16
T – KRAKATOA KING….-19
T – HIGHWAY STORM….-27
T* – BELLS OF AINSWORTH….-35
PURCELL’S BRIDGE….-40

WETHERBY 3-45 – CLASS 3 – HURDLE

T* – RAVEN’S TOWER….+12
T – DIAMOND FORT….+12
T – ICE COOL CHAMPS….+11
T – CARNSPINDLE….+9
T* – BOYHOOD….+9
T* – QUERRY HORSE….+8
T* – ZEROESHADESOFGREY….+3
* – LITTLE BRUCE….-13
ZIG ZAG….-20
* – BORUMA….-29
GENERAL MAHLER….-31
MINSTREL ROYAL….-40
T – CANTON PRINCE….-40
REVERENT CUST….-40

AYR 1-00 – CLASS 4 – CHASE

* – THE ORANGE ROGUE….+8
TITIAN BOY….-15
NAKADAM….-26
VOYAGE A NEW YORK….-27
THE COBBLER SWAYNE….-38
ONDERUN….-40
HAVANA JACK….-40
T – HARRY HUNT….-40

AYR 1-35 – CLASS 3 – CHASE

H* – BERNADELLI….+11
CAPTAIN REDBEARD….+8
T* – CYRUS DARIUS….+8
NO NO MAC….-8
T* – PISTOL PARK….-17
T* – DE VOUS A MOI….-23
T* – ARCTIC GOLD….-30
T* – KAYF ADVENTURE….-35
MARTILOO….-40

AYR 2-10 – CLASS 3 – HURDLE

* – ISAACTOWN LAD….+10
T* – BRYDEN BOY….+6
* – KING OF FASHION….+1
* – ANOTHER MATTIE….+1
T – LITTLE BRUCE….-10
T* – HELLO GOERGE….-20
* – IMPERIAL PRINCE….-21
T – HAINAN….-38
T – KRIS SPIN….-40
T – SKIPTHECUDDLES….-40

AYR 2-45 – CLASS 3 – CHASE

* – LAKE VIEW LAD….+9
T* – UBALTIQUE….+2
* – MUMGO’S DEBUT….-2
T – SPECIAL CATCH….-4
* – UPSILON BLEU….-26
T* – ROCK ON ROCKY….-35
T – ARCHIVE….-37
T – WOLF SWORD….-40

AYR 3-20 – CLASS 2 – HURDLE

T* – MOUNT MEWS….+11
T* – SLEEPY HAVEN….-2
T – APTERIX….-10
MIRSAALE….-39
MARTILA….-40
T – GASSIN GOLF….-40
T – DON BERSY….-40
ALPHABETICAL ORDER….-40

ASCOT 2-15 – CLASS 1 – CHASE

* – MARRACUDJA….+11
* – QUITE BY CHANCE….+9
* – THEINVAL….+2
* – FESTIVE AFFAIR….+1
CHRIS PEA GREEN….-7
* – MAX WARD….-8
* – LITTLE POP….-30
* – EXITAS….-35
* – SOMCHINE….-35
CALIPTO….-40
T – SPEREDEK….-40

ASCOT 3-00 – CLASS 1 – HURDLE

* – DOLOS….+13
* – AIR HORSE ONE….+13
* – JENKINS….+7
* – VERDANA BLUE….+4
* – EAST INDIES….+4
* – CAID DU LIN….-15
* – HIGH BRIDGE….-15
* – ELGIN….-17
T* – PERUVIAN BLEU….-20
MIDNIGHT MAESTRO….-29
H – SONG LIGHT….-32
CLAYTON….-32
LIMITED RESERVE….-40
PRAIRIE TOWN….-40
FOU ET SAGE….-40

ASCOT 3-35 – CLASS 1 – CHASE

* – ART MAURESQUE….+25
* – BRAQUER D’OR….+10
T* – BIGBADJOHN….+10
* – ANTONY….+10
* – DARK FLAME….+10
* – CAROLE’S DESTRIER….+9
* – THE YOUNG MASTER….+2
* – ULTRAGOLD….-1
REGAL ENCORE….-2
* – GO CONQUER….-9
* – EMERGING FORCE….-22
* – JUNCTION FOURTEEN….-29
* – BALLYKAN….-35
FOURTH ACT….-39
ROCK GONE….-40
BALLYCROSS….-40
* – MELDRUM LAD….-40
THOMAS BROWN….-40

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