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Today’s Full Ratings and Advice 11/11/17

It is a seriously busy day and we have racing that is off the scales! Of the 10 rated races only one falls below Class 3 and that’s an indicator Saturday has arrived.

However, my suggestion we keep an eye on the skies is particularly pertinent today as Wincanton is due to cop for it. A great shame given it’s their big day of the year and it might well be I keep my hands in my pockets rather than betting there, if the forecast is correct.

They have had 11mm overnight and it’s set to get heavier as the day goes on. You will have a decision to make.

You will note I’ve now reverted to my normal way of working, top six rated only, Notes attached, etc and what I will do each day is post full Ratings on the website plus, send out a second Newsletter.

I do this because on days like these I’m sure you want my figures early, especially if you are heading off to work.

Let’s get on with it, then.

TODAY’S “T-FACTOR” HORSES

KELSO

T – TAWSEEF (1-25)
T* – FEDERICI (2-00)
T* – AMILLIONTIMES (2-00)
T* – WELCOME BEN (2-35)
T* – PRINCE KHURRAM (3-10)
T* – CRAIG STAR (3-20)

AINTREE

T* – BEER GOGGLES (1-40)
T – VYTA DU ROC (1-40)
T – HOLLY BUSH HENRY (1-40)
T* – EARTHMOVES (1-40)
T – LOUIS’ VAC POUCH (1-40)
T* – WINNINGTRY (1-40)
T* – VOIX D’EAU (2-15)
T* – POBBLES BAY (2-15)
T* – WARRIORS TALE (2-15)
T – THREE STARS (2-15)
T – TIQUER (2-15)
T – THE FRESH PRINCE (2-15)
T* – IMJOEKING (3-25)

TODAY’S RATINGS AND ADVICE

KELSO 1-25 – CLASS 3 – HURDLE

* – SCOTSWELL….+6
* – CLASSICAL MILANO….-9
LANDECKER….-12
* – UEUETEOTL….-13
* – NEMEAN LION….-40
SOLWAY DANDY….-40
T – TAWSEEF….-40
WIND OF HOPE….-40

NOTES: Not a lot of help here from a stats angle, save to say LANDECKER, who is 4-13 track, does not have his ground (0-10). All four career wins have come here but not when it’s riding quicker than good to soft….two on that, two on soft.

My top rated has three ticks but the last time he won over hurdles was in 2012. The 3-12 ground, 3-15 trip and 3-13 track stats reading better than anything else in the race so he’s my 20/80….but to October Rules levels of punting.

DUTCH: SCOTSWELL, CLASSICAL MILANO, LANDECKER
20/80: SCOTSWELL
EXOTICS: SCOTSWELL, CLASSICAL MILANO, LANDECKER
LAY: TAWSEEF

KELSO 2-00 – CLASS 3 – CHASE

* – DIMPLE….+16
T* – FEDERICI….+9
T* – AMILLIONTIMES….+9
* – SUDSKI STAR….+8
* – CHIDSWELL….-2
* – CUP FINAL….-10
* – COOKING FAT….-14

NOTES: SUDSKI STAR looks to have ground and track right, 6-13 and 4-8 respectively but, he’s 0-2 trip.

My top pair have yet to race here but AMILLIONTIMES has three ticks….4-19 ground, 2-4 trip and 1-5 track and with those T* icons, has to be in my dutch.

It is a really tight race and one that could look better were the figures turned on their heads but I have what I have and I’ll go with my top three, again to October Rules levels of punting.

DUTCH: DIMPLE, FEDERICI, AMILLIONTIMES
20/80: DIMPLE
EXOTICS: DIMPLE, FEDERICI, AMILLIONTIMES
LAY: COOKING FAT

KELSO 2-35 – CLASS 3 – CHASE

T* – WELCOME BEN….+5
* – FAIR LOCH….+3
VENGEUR DE GUYE….-8
* – FULL SHIFT….-10
* – CHAIN OF BEACONS….-16
* – TRUST THOMAS….-18
TOMORROW’S LEGEND….-40
AZERT DE COEUR….-40

NOTES: Two of my top three are previous course winners and my top one is 3-8 ground, 1-4 trip and 1-4 track….the other course winner is VENGUER DE GUYE but you’d be concerned by the 0-7 ground stat.

Another I’ll simply trust to my figures.

DUTCH: WELCOME BEN, FAIR LOCH, VENGUER DE GUYE
20/80: WELCOME BEN
EXOTICS: WELCOME BEN, FAIR LOCH, VENGUER DE GUYE
LAY: NONE

KELSO 3-10 – CLASS 4 – HURDLE

* – BENNY’S SECRET….+9
T* – PRINCE KHURRAM….+8
* – CAPE OF GLORY….+4
HELMSLEY LAD….-2
T* – CRAIG STAR….-5
* – GREEN ZONE….-10
FORTY CROWN….-19
* – SIERRA OSCAR….-26

NOTES: I’ll once again keep it simple and work with my top three. Statistically weak and my figures haven’t been so bad recently, have they!

DUTCH: BENNY’S SECRET, PRINCE KHURRAM, CAPE OF GLORY
20/80: BENNY’S SECRET
EXOTICS: BENNY’S SECRET, PRINCE KHURRAM, CAPE OF GLORY
LAY: NONE

AINTREE 1-40 – CLASS 2 – HURDLE

* – BON CHIC….+3
T* – WINNINGTRY….-17
* – NAUTICAL NITWIT….-22
T – VYTA DU ROC….-29
T* – EARTHMOVES….-29
T* – BEER GOGGLES….-35
T – LOUIS’ VAC POUCH….-37
BIG EASY….-40
FORZA MILAN….-40
T – HOLLY BUSH HENRY….-40

NOTES: The problem for me with Rated races from this track is they are effectively “on their own”. The stats we have are useless because the place is so underused.

DUTCH:
20/80:
EXOTICS:
LAY:

AINTREE 2-15 – CLASS 2 – CHASE

T* – POBBLES BAY….+8
* – BALLYBOLLEY….±0
* – VIRGILLIO….-3
T* – WARRIORS TALE….-12
T* – VOIX D’EAU….-15
* – MATORICO….-22
* – GARDEFORT….-31
T – THE FRESH PRINCE….-40
MASTER DEE….-40
T – TIQUER….-40
T – THREE STARS….-40
ON TOUR….-40

NOTES:

DUTCH:
20/80:
EXOTICS:
LAY:

AINTREE 3-25 – CLASS 3 – CHASE

* – NICHOLAS CHAUVIN….±0
BABY KING….-1
T* – IMJOEKING….-22
* – UT MAJEUR AULMES….-24
WORKBENCH….-33
BALLYHILL….-40
INK MASTER….-40
DUKE OF NAVAN….-40
PAIN AU CHOCOLAT….-40

NOTES:

DUTCH:
20/80:
EXOTICS:
LAY:

WINCANTON 1-50 – CLASS 2 – HURDLE

* – COPPER KAY….+4
* – THE ORGANIST….-1
ON DEMAND….-2
SECRET DOOR….-4
* – TARA VIEW….-5
* – LAMANVER ODYSSEY….-11
* – INDIAN STREAM…-15
MIDNIGHT TUNE….-21
ELLEN’S WAY….-24
JESSBER’S DREAM….-25
WIZARD’S SLIABH….-40

NOTES: Until I know for sure what they will be racing on I’m keeping my powder dry. I’m not going to resort to guessing on day one but for sure, the wetter the better for my Badger Profile selection!

The overnight rain has changed the ground here and with it set to get even softer….Wincanton can get heavy very quickly….I’d not be inclined to use what we have here and no point in my revisiting these figures due to the fact it will be getting softer.

DUTCH:
20/80:
EXOTICS:
LAY:

WINCANTON 3-00 – CLASS 1 – HURDLE

* – CHARBEL….+14
* – ZUBAYR….+14
* – MELODIC RENDEZVOUS….+2
LOUGH DERG SPIRIT….-5
* – FLYING TIGER….-10
COUER DE LION….-40
H – LONDON PRIZE….-40

NOTES:

DUTCH:
EXOTICS:
20/80:
LAY:

WINCANTON 3-35 – CLASS 1 – CHASE

ALFIE SPINNER….+15
MR MIX….+14
H* – SOUTHFIELD THEATRE….+13
* – HENLLAN HARRI….+9
* – THEATRE GUIDE….+8
* – PRESENT MAN….+1
* – FACT OF THE MATTER….±0
FLETCHERS FLYER….-1
* – YALA ENKI….-6
* – SOUTHFIELD ROYALE….-7
* – DOUBLE SHUFFLE….-19
* – FOX APPEAL….-19
PILGRIMS BAY….-19
FINAL NUDGE….-20
VIC DE TOUZAINE….-35
TEMPESTATEFLORESCO….-36
MONT ROYALE….-40
* – RELENTLESS DREAMER….-40

NOTES:

DUTCH:
20/80:
EXOTICS:
LAY:

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