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Racing Review of 04/11/17

I don’t do idle hands (far to restless for that), and I’m always looking for something that will be worth watching out for in the future.

Yesterday I did a bit of digging and don’t ask me why this particular thing wormed it’s way into my brain, because I have absolutely no idea.

The trainer of EXITAS, the winner of the Ascot 2-25 yesterday had, on the 28th of October, withdrawn that horse from a race at Cheltenham, because it had not eaten up.

Ok, nowt wrong with that but, if you look at the record of his horses, that have been withdrawn from a race within seven days of it then running, he has produced four winners from 11 such runners.

That one yesterday stopped me having another top three 1-2-3, in another Class 1 event!

A look back at yesterday:

WETHERBY 12-20 – CLASS 4 – CHASE

TH* – ZASTRA….+8
T* – DELGANY DEMON….-2
* – NORTONTHORPELEGEND….-9 – 4TH
* – TICKENWOLF….-11
TH – DAKLONDIKE….-11 – WON 5/1
* – BASFORD BEN….-16 – 6TH
T – KRAKATOA KING….-19 – 2ND
T – HIGHWAY STORM….-27
T* – BELLS OF AINSWORTH….-35 – 3RD
PURCELL’S BRIDGE….-40 – 5TH

WETHERBY 3-45 – CLASS 3 – HURDLE

T* – RAVEN’S TOWER….+12 – 2ND
T – DIAMOND FORT….+12 – WON
T – ICE COOL CHAMPS….+11 – 3RD
T – CARNSPINDLE….+9
T* – BOYHOOD….+9
T* – QUERRY HORSE….+8
T* – ZEROESHADESOFGREY….+3
* – LITTLE BRUCE….-13
ZIG ZAG….-20
* – BORUMA….-29
GENERAL MAHLER….-31
MINSTREL ROYAL….-40
T – CANTON PRINCE….-40
REVERENT CUST….-40

REVIEW: Top three 1-2-3 and Trifecta paying £132.90

AYR 1-00 – CLASS 4 – CHASE

* – THE ORANGE ROGUE….+8 – 5TH
TITIAN BOY….-15
NAKADAM….-26 – 2ND
VOYAGE A NEW YORK….-27 – 3RD
THE COBBLER SWAYNE….-38 – 4TH
ONDERUN….-40
HAVANA JACK….-40 – 6TH
T – HARRY HUNT….-40 – WON 13/2

REVIEW: The only T Factor runner duly hosed in. Gary, I wonder if you might find a T-40 micro-system here? I cannot imagine we’d have more than a handful such runners during a season?

AYR 1-35 – CLASS 3 – CHASE

H* – BERNADELLI….+11 – 4TH 14/1
CAPTAIN REDBEARD….+8 – 3RD 14/1
T* – CYRUS DARIUS….+8 – WON 5/2
NO NO MAC….-8
T* – PISTOL PARK….-17
T* – DE VOUS A MOI….-23
T* – ARCTIC GOLD….-30 – 2ND 7/2
T* – KAYF ADVENTURE….-35
MARTILOO….-40

REVIEW: Two reasons for this being a good race for my figures. First, I would have bet the winner and landed my dutch. Second, I’d have laid ARCTIC GOLD.

Starting next Saturday I’ll be reintroducing my NOTES, and advising you as to how I’ll be looking to play a race. This may mean that, because of the sheer volume of work/races, I’ll have to resort to only posting up my top six in the first newsletter, then introducing my full ratings on the website but we’ll see how we go.

AYR 2-10 – CLASS 3 – HURDLE

* – ISAACTOWN LAD….+10 – 3RD
T* – BRYDEN BOY….+6 – 5TH
* – KING OF FASHION….+1 – 4TH
* – ANOTHER MATTIE….+1
T – LITTLE BRUCE….-10
T* – HELLO GOERGE….-20 – 2ND
* – IMPERIAL PRINCE….-21
T – HAINAN….-38
T – KRIS SPIN….-40 – WON 15/2
T – SKIPTHECUDDLES….-40

REVIEW: Oh look! Another T-40 winner! 😏

AYR 2-45 – CLASS 3 – CHASE

* – LAKE VIEW LAD….+9 – 3RD
T* – UBALTIQUE….+2 – 5TH
* – MUMGO’S DEBUT….-2
T – SPECIAL CATCH….-4 – 6TH
* – UPSILON BLEU….-26 – 2ND
T* – ROCK ON ROCKY….-35
T – ARCHIVE….-37 – WON 6/1
T – WOLF SWORD….-40 – 4TH

AYR 3-20 – CLASS 2 – HURDLE

T* – MOUNT MEWS….+11 – 3RD 10/11
T* – SLEEPY HAVEN….-2 – 5TH
T – APTERIX….-10 – 6TH
MIRSAALE….-39 – 4TH
MARTILA….-40 – WON 7/1
T – GASSIN GOLF….-40
T – DON BERSY….-40
ALPHABETICAL ORDER….-40 – 2ND 28/1

ASCOT 2-25 – CLASS 1 – CHASE

* – MARRACUDJA….+11 – 3RD
* – QUITE BY CHANCE….+9 – 2ND
* – THEINVAL….+2 – 4TH
* – FESTIVE AFFAIR….+1
CHRIS PEA GREEN….-7
* – MAX WARD….-8
* – LITTLE POP….-30
* – EXITAS….-35 – WON 11/2
* – SOMCHINE….-35
CALIPTO….-40
T – SPEREDEK….-40

REVIEW: I mention up top the “system” Mr Middleton looks to have going….I’ll be keeping a very close eye on him.

ASCOT 3-00 – CLASS 1 – HURDLE

* – DOLOS….+13
* – AIR HORSE ONE….+13 – 4TH
* – JENKINS….+7 – NR
* – VERDANA BLUE….+4 – 5TH
* – EAST INDIES….+4
* – CAID DU LIN….-15
* – HIGH BRIDGE….-15 – 3RD
* – ELGIN….-17 – WON 6/1
T* – PERUVIAN BLEU….-20
MIDNIGHT MAESTRO….-29 – 6TH
H – SONG LIGHT….-32
CLAYTON….-32
LIMITED RESERVE….-40 – 2ND
PRAIRIE TOWN….-40
FOU ET SAGE….-40

ASCOT 3-35 – CLASS 1 – CHASE

* – ART MAURESQUE….+25 – FELL 1ST
* – BRAQUER D’OR….+10 – 3RD 7/1
T* – BIGBADJOHN….+10 – NR
* – ANTONY….+10 – 5TH 4/1
* – DARK FLAME….+10 – 4TH 10/1
* – CAROLE’S DESTRIER….+9 – NR
* – THE YOUNG MASTER….+2
* – ULTRAGOLD….-1
REGAL ENCORE….-2
* – GO CONQUER….-9 – WON 7/1
* – EMERGING FORCE….-22
* – JUNCTION FOURTEEN….-29
* – BALLYKAN….-35
FOURTH ACT….-39
ROCK GONE….-40 – 2ND 20/1
BALLYCROSS….-40
* – MELDRUM LAD….-40
THOMAS BROWN….-40 – 6TH 9/1

Next weekend it all starts for real. It is Badger Day on Saturday and I’ll be producing a profile for that race in addition to ratings. Do you recall last years profiling?
“This race is actually becoming a bit tricky to Profile as generally I can pinpoint an age grouping to concentrate on, or a weight range that would indicate a trainer has been getting one handicapped for “today” but in both instances I can see that age is no barrier, unless you’ve turned 10, and that six of the last 10 winners have carried anything between 10st and 11st 13lb.

I do know that seven of the last 10 winners carried no more than 11st 2lb so I’ll take that and create my first shortlist of qualifiers based on weight:

ZIGA BOY
ROC D’APSIS
PRESENT MAN
GENTLEMAN JON
SET LIST
BOB TUCKER
FONGERONTHESWITCH

Having won over at least three miles is a major plus because the last 10 winners had all done so. I’m extracting from that list above those that have not:

ZIGA BOY
GENTLEMAN JON
BOB TUCKER
FONGERONTHESWITCH

I am looking at introducing a new icon that signifies a horses preference for racing right or left handed. With that in mind I looked back through previous results here and have found that nine of the last 10 winners had won going right handed.

All four qualify but I have one, ZIGA BOY, who has won only 1-6 going right handed and has a definite preference for going left (2 wins, 1 placed effort from nine runs going that way around). That win going right handed came here, over course and distance.

I’ll take all four….this time.

A top four finish last time out does seem to have merit as eight of the last 10 winners had done so plus, the last three winners came here off the back of a win.

On both counts I have only one qualifier.

GENTLEMAN JON.

I could have made this ultra simple from the beginning and stated that Paul Nicholls farms the race….three winners and six placed horses from 20 he has run in it over the last 10 years but both his representatives here fall down on a couple of things, PRESENT MAN, for instance never having won previously over a trip more than 20 furlongs long. This horse might well improve for it but we’ll find that out together.

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE – GENTLEMAN JON – 20/80”

A great result that was, as GENTLEMAN JON won the race by 25 lengths @ 9/1

I mention in that piece that I was looking into the possibility of introducing a new icon that indicates a horses preference for going right or left handed. It is still very much something I intend doing as I believe it has legs and will increase profitability.

Have a great day!

Kindest regards

Ron

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