With so many races on a single day I’m always a tad trepidatious….not for me but for you. I’m not a worrier as such, more concerned about your banks and how they’ll be affected by a bad day.
Sure, I know we are all adults and that we know the score….we’ll win, we’ll lose….but when we get to the end of a day like that I’m always heaving a little sigh of relief, when it goes well.
Yesterday it was up and down as we hit highs, then plunged to a low. YANMARE was my personal low. He was going to win his race because the one thing you know about that horse is, he’s a grinder. He’s not fast….he just keeps on running. Fell at the last and makes me look a plank for taking the decision not to work my top three in a dutch, as the 22/1 second highest rated horse won the race.
That’s two 22/1 winners in a dutch, in the last two days….not many priced at 22/1 in a season!
The lads at Astech dutched.
A similar thing happened to me in the Ayr 1-35. My third highest rated horse was leading over the last and not stopping….until he fell and let in the one I’d laid to win the race.
They were the downs.
The “ups” were brilliant though.
The Ayr 2-10….
AYR 2-10 – CLASS 4 – HURDLE
WIDE AWAKE….+10 – 3RD 7/2
PAPER ROSES….+1 – 2ND 25/1
T* – ATTENTION SEEKER….-15 – WON 9/2
T* – THEATRE ACT….-26
T – DARK SUNSET….-40
T – OUR VALENTINA….-40
T – MAUREEN’S STAR….-40
T – CASCAYE….-40
NOTES: This also feels a tad strange to look at but I’ve selected three from my top six that I’m happy to work with.
Rated horses 1, 2 and 4 get the gig at this end. None of those racing here have won previously over this course and four have tried
PRESENTING ROSE 0-2
CONQUER GOLD 0-3
OUR VALENTINA 0-2
My top pair have a + figure and ATTENTION SEAKER, who gets my 20/80 because of those icons, is 1-5 ground/1-4 trip….one of only two winners in this field with soft ground winning form and one of only three to have succeeded over the trip.
DUTCH: WIDE AWAKE, PAPER ROSES, ATTENTION SEAKER
20/80: ATTENTION SEAKER
EXOTICS: WIDE AWAKE, PAPER ROSES, ATTENTION SEAKER
The lot landed.
9/2 WINNER PUNTED
CSF = £112.02
EXACTA = £115.50
TRICAST = £443.07
TRIFECTA = £321.00
But the best was yet to come. I’m still giving it a Ronaldo slide across the laminate when an e-mail arrives….hope you don’t mind me sharing, Joy?
Low period of my life presently, but having backed Speredek and also having both the forecast and tricast in the 2.10 at Ayr have brought a smile to my face. And there are a few more to go!
Reading that gave me a million times more pleasure than scooping those pools. You simply have no idea what a message like that means. Just 42 words and numbers. I responded by saying I imagined we were both riding the third placed horse up that run in as it had jumped it in fifth but you could see it was staying on and would make it, all things being fair!
SPEREDEK….well backed on course, 4/1 > 11/4f….jumped off and never saw another horse….wins by 15 lengths.
Because of how well things are going and my introducing the news to potential new members of Post Racing, I’m getting lots of e-mails coming in asking me if I can do this, that or the other and I’m sitting back trying to think of how I might do them.
What I do not want to do is slip back into doing to much again and finding myself swimming against a tide, as was the case in the 18 months leading up to my break.
I’m going to look at everything and if I believe I can add something without diluting what I’m doing now I’ve gone back to basics, I’ll do it but the results we’ve seen since I stopped shovelling on to much coal have been outstanding and I won’t compromise things again.
I mentioned to Gary before the season started that I’d be very interested to see how a new T F actor stat worked. I’d noticed a couple of times that when we had just one horse in a race having made a journey to race, they were doing the business. Up to Sunday evening the figure Gary had produced, that refer back to November 1st, read:
Sole T 4/14 +27.24pts (only horse with any kind of T, not sole T when others have T*!!)
Yesterday we had three such horses and two went in 11/1 and 2/1
This might have legs. Obviously we are just a couple of weeks into the season Gary monitors and it might well be it’s an early season micro-system but we’ll know for sure come the end of March.
The reset their bank on the day I myself started playing….12th November….and in five days that is now their bank.
I received an e-mail recently from a member that used to be subscribed but now takes just the free Newsletter.
He was critical of dutching, saying it dilutes big priced winners and that he would always play level stakes across the number of horses being punted in the dutch.
My response was that everyone taking my figures is free to use them in any which way they chose. I also pointed out that his argument was wholly academic because without having the Ratings, he could not actually do either.
The plain fact is though, the lads at Astech Gold have produced a profit in five days of £487.86 and a cumulative profit since August 19th of closing in on £8k. How can anyone sniff at that?
By the way, if you are wondering about their methodology and how it all works, please contact them direct….they’ll be more than happy to provide you with details. I’ve been fielding a fair few e-mails and messages from members wanting to know and whilst I do not mind acting as a go-between, it’s so much easier if they tell you themselves as nothing then gets lost in translation.
Just click on that screenshot to go to their website.
Two meetings, five rated races, several of which look ugly. The Taunton 2-05pm event is horrible.
Right now though, who cares. Things are going great, It might be we find a diamond amongst the trash.
I’m working in exactly the same way again today. I feel that having more time to go through a race after it has gone out and fine tooth combing the stats enabled me….and Joy….to nail that huge tricast yesterday.
A second Newsletter will go out containing full Ratings and my text applied to each race. It will be earlier the morning than yesterday because we do not have the volume of racing….hopefully the same kind of results though!
Fingers crossed it’s another good bedtime read tonight.
TODAY’S FREE STUFF
One of my five rated races today and it’s the best of them.
I love Ludlow, it’s a good track for me….not as good as Newbury but, good.
LUDLOW 3-30 – CLASS 3 – CHASE
H* – ABBEYGREY….+9
* – CERNUNNOS….-6
H – PETITE POWER….-9
* – AFTER HOURS….-10
* – CAULFIELDS VENTURE….-13
* – KELVINGROVE….-14
T* – THE HAPPY CHAPPY….-24
* – BY THE BOARDWALK….-28
* – AUNTY ANN….-30
T* – MIAMI PRESENT….-34
NOTES: My top rated is already 0-3 at Ludlow so, unless the first time headgear work the oracle, you imagine he’s going to have a struggle on.
None of those that have raced here previously have managed to succeed
BY THE BOARDWALK 0-5
AUNTY ANN 0-1
ROYAL PLAZA 0-1
THE HAPPY CHAPPY 0-1
PETITE POWER, who trades favourite right now, is 0-6 ground and 0-2 trip but he’s very lightly raced with just fives runs so far over fences.
The first time headgear makes him very interesting, as does the fact the yard is firing in winners left right and centre….Fergal O’Brien is currently operating at a 26% strike rate….5-19 in the last 14 days of racing.
I’ll make that one the play to a 20/80