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Today’s Ratings and a Review of Saturday

I have to start with the performance of our new “superstar” CABARET QUEEN, don’t I.

Wasn’t she brilliant?

When we first got involved with the mare I was told by my friend in Ireland that we have a good one. He had advised Willie Mullins that he should try and get her but this bird had flown and our friends at Highclere had already signed the cheque.

The feedback came through whilst the family were in the Brittania Spice curry house in Parkgate last night, all paid for courtesy of the “Queen” and it reads so:

“Cabaret Queen (GB)
King’s Theatre (IRE)/La Dame Brune (FR)
Many congratulations for Cabaret Queen’s easy victory this afternoon at Market Rasen!

Cabaret Queen looked fantastic in the parade ring, with Tom Messenger, Dan’s assistant trainer saying that she had been doing everything right at home in the build up to this race. Harry Skelton said that the ground should be ideal for her and that there ought to be a bit of pace in the race so he planned to drop her in behind the leaders and ride the race as he found it.

When the tapes went up, Harry did just that, sitting in fourth, with Lostnfound and Lucca Lady going on to set the pace. There was a long run to the first hurdle and Cabaret Queen was quite keen, but as soon as the hurdles started coming she settled well, jumping into third position, where she remained for a majority of the trip. Lostnfound was jumping violently to the left in front, but Cabaret Queen remained on a true line in behind and was not distracted by his antics at all.

As the field turned for home with two left to jump, Harry was still sat quietly on Cabaret Queen, who flew the second last to take up second place. She jumped into the lead at the last and from there on Harry gave her a hands and heels ride to the line, pulling away from the second horse, Lucca Lady by three and a quarter lengths.

After the race, Harry was delighted with Cabaret Queen’s efforts today, noting that her jumping was foot perfect throughout. He thought that the trip of two and a half miles suited her well, and that as a big galloping mare she had been able to get into a good rhythm throughout the race. Tom echoed Harry’s thoughts, and he too was pleased with her jumping, particularly given the distraction of the erratic jumping of the leader.

Many congratulations again on today’s win, and we will be in touch in due course to let you know how she has come out of the race and with a plan going forward.”

Not sure Harry was right about there being a bit of pace in the race as it looked a bit of a dawdle to me but she jumped brilliantly and the race was won fully three from home.

There was plenty of money around for the runner up who went off favourite in the end but we beat her very easily and I’m now looking forward to hearing what Dan’s plans are for her.

MARKET RASEN YESTERDAY

We saw some serious performances by novices’ yesterday and that obviously includes CABARET QUEEN but how good did CAPITAINE look over fences? He already has Arkle Chase in March, written all over him.

The one horse I wanted to see win though was DEMON D’AUNOU as his French form ties in with one of my 20 to Follow, DOSTAL PHIL.

JP bought yesterday’s winner for £130,000 last November and he had also bought DOSTAL PHIL for a lot more, after he had beaten DEMON D’AUNON easily in an AQPS at Deauville in the October.

Now with Hobbs, I’m really looking forward to seeing that one make debut over hurdles!….could be Friday, at Cheltenham!

WHAT I DO HERE

What I’ll never do is advise you how much you should be betting on a horse. Yesterday I suggested my own punt on CABARET QUEEN would be a straight win of “loyalty” size. That’s not me telling you what to do? I have no idea what your personal situation is. I do not know the size of your betting banks (I don’t want to, either), I’ve no clue what your own stake of loyalty size would be…might be more, might be less, than my own but either way, I will never “advise” any member how to bet.

What you get each morning are my figures and I then add text telling you how I myself, at the time of writing, will be looking to play a race.

As soon as my Newsletter goes out I’m then waiting until around 10-00am for the markets to start kicking into gear, which might then influence a change in my position. Nothing in horse racing is ever written in stone because so much can change in the hours leading up to the first race of the day.

You yourself will make your own decisions on staking.

I erred on the side of caution yesterday in my punt on our horse because I had absolutely no idea how good, or otherwise, the opposition were. The fact all the money came for the runner up and ours drifted from 4/5 > 7/4 suggested something other than what we then witnessed was about to happen.

How would she jump, would their be enough pace for ours, knowing she is a three miler waiting to happen? After the race I wished I’d had more on but hindsight….a wonderful thing.

The layers paid for my dining out last night and more than enough is left to do the Red Fox for Sunday lunch if I fancy it. Your level of loyalty bet might have covered a chippy tea or, enabled you to dine out for a month.

I’ll never operate a “tipping service” and tell you how many points you should have on a horse. One of the reasons I’ve advised you of Astech Gold is because the software they have produced will tell you how much you should have on a horse, as it operates to your instructions.

Andy, the bloke whose idea the software was, told me the reason he wanted to create it was because of this very issue. You would never go into a bookmakers and ask the guy behind the counter, “how much should I have on this horse?”….he’d look at you like you had two heads.

Staking is personal to you and your own financial circumstances. I’ll obviously give you my opinion on a rated race based on my figures and let you in on my way of punting it but the number of times I’ve received an e-mail telling me I should have stuck to “old school”, after my top three have finished 1-2-3 and a member has nailed a whopper of a tricast, is legend….I’ll have probably backed my fourth highest rated….but I get my turn and make my profits, and that’s all this is about…..making a profit.

Now we have an inkling as to how good our horse is and I’ll be able to bet more confidently next time….if I know how good those other lightly raced novices she’ll take on, are. Imagine she goes up a couple of grades, takes on horses from yards such as that of Henderson, Nicholls, or Fry, who have never been sighted before? They have Irish PTP form and have been purchased for big money, or been bought in France for silly Euros….are you going to lump on ours?

I was more than happy giving the proverbial fist pump as she shot up the run in, knowing I own a hair of her!

Then the Ratings kicked in and they are looking extremely sharp already. Four of yesterday’s Rated races saw the winner in my top two rated. Three saw the first two home in my top three rated….so why do I personally wait until Badger Day to go betting again?

Well, I used to start November 1st, just as I started May 1st for the flat season but in 2014 I dropped a lot of my bank in the first two weeks before I started to claw it back from Badger Day onwards. I remember Donald McCain saying he’d deliberately looked at starting his season a couple of weeks later and everyone else had, too.

It could well be that because trainers now look at how the weather systems are working and understand a huge amount of rain is most likely to fall midseason that they’ll revert back to how it used to be and you’ll see that in the results produced by my figures.

If you started using them now I’d not say don’t….they are working….but that has to be your decision. I have my way of working/betting, you have yours.,

YESTERDAY’S “SIGHTERS”

MARKET RASEN 2-50 – CLASS 4 – HURDLE

T* – LOVE THE LEADER….+13
* – SHRUBLAND….+12 – WON 11/4 > 9/4
T* – GANNICUS….+5 – 5TH
* – CROOKSTOWN….+4 – NR
MCKENZIE’S FRIEND….-7 – 6TH
* – BOWIE….-7 – 4TH
CRY WOLF….-18 – 3RD
T* – GREEN ZONE….-19
* – PADDYS RUNNER….-32

REVIEW: My top rated here was in contention when he went wrong, was pulled up and dismounted but dutching would have secured the win and the ratings were sound.

MARKET RASEN 3-25 – CLASS 4 – HURDLE

* – BLUE COMET….+12 – WON 6/4 > 11/10
RED RISING….+9 – NR
* – WALTZ DARLING….-10 – 2ND 5/1
IT’S YOUR MOVE….-10
* – HEY BILL….-22
MOORLANDS MIST….-40
T – SOLWAY DANDY….-40

REVIEW: A top two 1-2 and whilst nobody would have got rich off the back of it, the figures were spot on.

MARKET RASEN 4-35 – CLASS 3 – CHASE

* – READY TOKEN….+26
* – ROUGH JUSTICE….+11 – 5TH 16/1
* – KELVINGROVE….+10 – 6TH 9/2
* – TICKENWOLF….+9
* – SHADY GLEN….+9 – 3RD 13/2
* – SHAKE IT UP….-2 – 4TH 8/1
* – RED GIANT….-4
T – MISTER DON….-35 – 2ND 7/2
T* – SPORTING BOY….-30 – WON 6/1

REVIEW: Proof that the ratings will sometimes make me look stupid. The interesting thing for me though was the “T” factor horses….first and second….Gary’s stats will be well worth watching during the winter and I’ll be setting up a section in the main Newsletter indicating those horses that have journeyed a round trip of 300 miles or more.

STRATFORD 2-30 – CLASS 3 – HURDLE

* – MISS NIGHT OWL….+15 – WON 4/1 > 7/2
* – GIVEAWAY GLANCE….+12 – 2ND 11/1
CANOODLE….+11
CASAFIORE….+10
CLEMENCY….+9
* – GRACEFUL LEGEND….-16 – 3RD 6/1
LITTERALE CI….-34
MIDTECH VALENTINE….-40

REVIEW: Three horses in here wearing the * icon and they duly produced a Tricast that paid £219.63….very nice top two 1-2 again and that paid 37/1 for the CSF.

STRATFORD 3-00 – CLASS 2 – CHASE

* – DAYS OF HEAVEN….+11 – 4TH
* – BRISTOL DE MAI….+10 – NR
* – VOIX D’EAU….+9 – 3RD
* – DRESDEN….-12 – 6TH
ROMAIN DE SENAM….-16 – WON 4/5
* – SAMETEGAL….-28 – NR
WALK IN THE MILL….-40 – 5TH
BURTONS WELL….-40 – 2ND

REVIEW: The right horse won this and had fitness on its side. I thought our old friend VOIX D’EAU ran well though. Not sure he loves the job but he stuck to it and I’m sure Harry will get a race out of him this season.

STRATFORD 3-35 – CLASS 3 – HURDLE

VIVE LE ROI….+9 – 4TH
H – CAPELAND….+9 – 2ND 2/1
* – ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR….+9
EL TERREMOTO….+9 – WON 5/2
AFICIENADO….+8 – 6TH
VISERION….+6
ITSHARD TO NO….-3 – 5TH
* – MISTER FIZZ….-40 – 3RD

REVIEW: It looked tight at the top here and three of those having rated +9 finished in the first four. Funny though, the only one of those four with previous winning form on the going finished tailed off.

STRATFORD 4-10 – CLASS 5 – CHASE

* – KAPRICORNE….+9 – 4TH 11/10
* – TARA MAC….-13 – WON 12/1
* – AGREEMENT….-19 – 2ND 14/1
WISH IN A WELL….-37
NORMANDY KING….-40
T – GORING ONE….-40
BOLD DUKE….-40

REVIEW: No complaints from me here. The top three rated produced a 133/1 CSF, the dutch would have been landed and the signs really are good for the rest of the season.

FFOS LAS 5-00 – CLASS 4 – CHASE

* – SEVEN KINGDOMS….+10 – NR
JONAGOLD….+8
* – ABBEYGREY….±0
LIME STREET….-7
* – CODY WYOMING….-35 – 2ND 12/1
PATRICKS PARK….-37 – WON 33/1
BRAMBLE BROOK….-40 – 3RD 11/8
LITTLE WINDMILL….-40
HELIUM….-40

REVIEW: After I had rated this race I said to myself, “I thought you were never going to work on races at Ffos Las again?”….after that result, you can bet your bottom dollar you’ll not see one again. Pig of a track to work with and the form travels nowhere else on the planet. I’ll certainly look for horses “OF INTEREST” but that’s the final nail in the coffin of Ffos Las.

TODAY’S “SIGHTERS”

KEMPTON 3-50 – CLASS 3 – CHASE

* – BREATH OF BLIGHTY….+11
* – NOCHE DE REYES….+11
T* – BRAAVOS….+9
MARRACUDJA….+6
* – WORKBENCH….-5
* – BACK BY MIDNIGHT….-22
* – OLIVER’S HILL….-22
PEARLS LEGEND….-40

KEMPTON 4-50 – CLASS 4 – CHASE

* – BETTER DAYS….+8
FIGHT COMMANDER….-3
* – RAMORE WILL….-4
* – UPBEAT COBBLER….-18
T* – COURT DISMISSED….-23
* – THEATRE MILL….-36
* – HEROES OR GHOSTS….-40

OF INTEREST

Fairyhouse was called off yesterday….no real shock there….I’m not sure what the weather is doing with you but up here it’s been atrocious overnight with howling wind and the rains lashing it down. Our garden furniture is I know not where, save for the glass topped coffee table that we dragged inside.

It’s dark outside right now but the patio has nothing on it….damage assessment to follow!

If my app is right, it’s going to be a cloudy but dry day in Sunbury-On-Thames so Kempton should be ok for those going racing.

Nothing jumps off the page as being OF INTEREST this afternoon so just watching, note taking and working on that Plumpton card for tomorrow.

Have a great day!

Kindest regards

Ron

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