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York Profiling 23/08/17

You would think a race like the ACOMB would be relatively simply to solve and that it would be a case of running with horses from the bigger yards.

We have only nine previous runnings to work with but the front two on the morning tussle are trained by a pair that have entered 16 between them and produced just two placed horses.

The current favourite is DEE EX BEE and a profit looks to be readily available punting that one to place. The favourite has won three and been placed in the first three, in eight of the nine runnings.

Eight of the previous winners arrived having won last time out so you would be concentrating on:

BEATBOX RHYTHM
DANZAN
DEE EX BEE
FLEET REVIEW
JAZEEL
LANSKY
WELLS FARHH GO

Five of the last seven winners had enjoyed more than one previous run before winning this and if you wanted to go down that route, then we’d be left with:

BEATBOX RHYTHM
DANZAN
FLEET REVIEW
JAZEEL

None of those previous winners of the race had an RPR of less than 104 and so that leaves just FLEET REVIEW as the most likely winner.

Aiden O’Brien has to improve on the one placed horse from nine previous entries for this but he has the right man on board.

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: FLEET REVIEW

The Great Voltiguer is never going to throw up many shock results and the favourite has won four of the last seven runnings.

The winner was to be found in the first three on the tissue in seven of the last 10 Voltiguer’s and in the front two on the last four occasions.

Effectively that makes it a match between CRACKSMAN and MIRAGE DANCER.

Both arrive here having placed last time out and that’s something very much preferred to having won. Only two of the last 10 winners came here having stood in a winners enclosure the time before.

I’m happy the market is right and CRACKSMAN looks the most likely winner of that pair.

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: CRACKSMAN

The Juddmonte has been won by horses aged 4+ three times in the last five runnings and as you know, I’m not overly convinced by this season 3-y-o’s.

I’m also of a mind ULYSSES is a good Group 2 horse and no more but he and a pair of 3-y-o’s front the tissue.

The winner has been in the front three in the betting on no fewer than eight of the last 10 occasions this has been run but I’m no real fan of any of them.

If eight had been going to post I’d have contemplated a 20/80 SHUTTER SPEED but they do not so, I’ll just watch this race.

That will do for today as I’ve no liking for the long distance races and a 20 runner Nursery concludes proceedings on the first day, for which I’ve posted up a selection in the OF INTEREST section in the Newsletter.

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