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Today’s Full Ratings 26/08/17

Thanks for the messages following the win of FIDAAWY yesterday. They were very much appreciated.

Over the past few months I’ve mentioned many times how well those horses having the T§ icons are doing. In particular, I was very drawn to the stat Gary has produced for us, that suggests when we have just one such runner in a race, we can punt it.

To Sunday 20/08/17 we had seen 45 such horses only, since May 1st. We had seen 10 win, producing a profit of 63.07pts. Yesterday we had two such runners:

FIDAAWY – WON 11/1
KNOCKAMANY BENDS – WON 5/1

Very much looking forward to reading the T Factor stats on Sunday evening!

A very busy Saturday ahead (14 Rated races, mostly double figure fields), plenty of great racing, York is going to be bathed in glorious sunshine all day, it’s going to be dry everywhere and so, we should have a good day.

I’ll be sending you my evening figures this afternoon, the full afternoon Ratings will be on the website shortly and I’ll also be looking to Profile the Ebor. That will be sent out in a Newsletter before noon.

Kindest regards

Ron

OF INTEREST SELECTIONS

ANGELS WHISPER
(Windsor 5-10) – 20/80

TODAY’S RATINGS AND ADVICE

GOODWOOD 2-45 – CLASS 2

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS: L-M-H

§ – TRUTH OR DARE….+14
§* – FRANK BRIDGE….+8
H – CERTIFICATE….+8
§* – JOHNNY BARNES….+8
§* – SWIFT APPROVAL….+7
* – SHADY MCCOY….+5
3* – MASHAM STAR….+5
H3 – SUTTER COUNTY….+2
§* – FOX TROTTER….-1
* – EASY TIGER….-1
* – SUZI’S CONNOISSEUR….-10
* – MOUNT TAHAN….-13
3 – MUKALAL….-17
RAUCOUS….-18
§3 – ULTIMATE AVENUE….-21
3* – REPTON….-21
3 – STRAIGHT RIGHT….-22
* – BERTIEWHITTLE….-25
§ – BURNT SUGAR….-36

NOTES: MJJACK was taken out because of the going but, he’s 1-3 on genuine good ground and I’d be thinking the 18 draw they copped for meant he was saved a massive round trip.

SHADY MCCOY loves it here, is in my top six but, he’s also been given a ball and chain of a draw to work with.

JOHNNY BARNES and SWIFT APPROVAL have ground and trip right, have been given the right draw but are 0-2 and 0-1 at Goodwood, respectively.

FRANK BRIDGE had yet to race here but is 3-6 ground/3-7 trip. The recipient of a good draw, if he handles the track he could run well.

My top rated is drawn right, is 1-1 here but, 0-5 ground. Ultra-consistent though and has placed on genuine good several times. He must run a big race from that box.

CERTIFICATE has first time pieces on today and is a CD winner. Drawn what I’d consider to be second best he represents the age group most successful in the last 10 years. Horses aged 5+ have won six of the last 10.

If we look at the most successful weight range then for sure I want one carrying more than 9st. Six of the last 10 did so and if I apply ratings to stats then my selection has to be JOHNNY BARNES.

It’s one of those races that has a good feel to it but feels muddied at the same time.

DUTCH: TRUTH OR DARE, FRANK BRIDGE, JOHNNY BARNES
20/80: JOHNNY BARNES
EXOTICS: TRUTH OR DARE, FRANK BRIDGE, JOHNNY BARNES
LAY: NONE

GOODWOOD 4-30 – CLASS 3

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS: NONE

* – BALMORAL CASTLE….+12
3* – SEE THE MASTER….-6
* – NAYEL….-22
* – KINGSTON KURRAJONG….-29
3 – DR JULIUS NO….-29
3 – ARGENTERIE….-32
* – MOHAB….-35
3 – ITSAKINDAMAGIC….-37
H* – LAWMAKING….-40
3* – MOUNTAIN HUNTER….-40
* – WIND IN MY SAILS….-40
CAPTAIN COURAGEOUS….-40
REAVER….-40

NOTES: I’ll just be working with my top two here. My top rated is 4-8 at Goodwood and is also 4-11 ground/4-10 trip.

The trainer of that 3-y-o won this race last year with another 3-y-o so, I’ll go 20/80 that one.

This race is only five years old so nothing concrete to go on statistically but, four of those five races have so far been won by horses drawn six or lower. I cannot see a draw bias here myself but I’ll definitely monitor that.

The one fly in the ointment here is MOUNTAIN HUNTER. I cannot, obviously, get a handle on a horse that has raced just once but what I can tell those of you that might be thinking of going in, the trainer is 0-25 with 3-y-o’s here over the last five seasons.

DUTCH: BALMORAL CASTLE, SEE THE MASTER
20/80: SEE THE MASTER
EXOTICS:
LAY: NONE

CHESTER 2-30 – CLASS 4

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS: L-M-H

BROTHER TIGER….+16
3 – MONTE CINQ….+13
§* – BALLESTEROS….+10
§* – NORMAL EQILIBRIUM….+9
* – SILVANUS….+7
3* – FOUR DRAGONS….+5
T§* – COME ON DAVE….-1
* – ROYAL MEZYAN….-9
§* – QUICK LOOK….-13
INVINCIBLE RIDGE….-18
* – LYDIA’S PLACE….-25
FUJIN….-40

NOTES: My top rated is 0-6 ground and already 0-1 track so I’ll not be using that one.

It’s actually not really a race I’m getting a good vibe about to be honest. I’m thinking the pair in my top six that have a good draw have plenty against them. NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM is just 1-18 on the ground and BALLESTEROS is just 1-13 at Chester, and runs only because his owner likes him to be here….his win here came in 2015.

I’ll not be betting here.

DUTCH:
20/80:
EXOTICS:
LAY:

CHESTER 3-05 – CLASS 3

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS: L-M-H

§* – LUCKY BEGGAR….+20
* – SOIE D’LEAU….+11
* – POWERALLIED….+4
§ – REFLECTOR….-9
§* – FUMBO JUMBO….-10
* – LONGROOM….-16
GUISHAN….-16
CONFESSIONAL….-18
BOSSIPOP….-21
* – STANGHOW….-25
T – STELLARTA….-40
§ – SIGN OF THE KODIAC….-40

NOTES: My thoughts here are exactly the same for that race above. My top rated has a cracking + figure but statistically he’s a moose….1-10 ground, 0-4 track and 1-3 trip.

Perhaps the best stat to work with is that the favourite has won the last three runnings of the race and we’ve only had five previous to work with.

Also, the last three winners have been drawn 1 or 2.

The current favourite is REFLEKTOR and, he’s drawn 1

I’ll have a small 20/80

DUTCH:
20/80: REFLEKTOR
EXOTICS:
LAY:

CHESTER 4-15 – CLASS 3

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS: L-M-H

T – SUN LOVER….+11
§* – PENWORTHAM….+9
H* – HEIR TO A THRONE….+9
* – ECHO OF LIGHTNING….+8
§* – GABRIAL’S KAKA….+8
CALL OUT LOUD….-6
EXPLAIN….-17
* – DARK DEVIL….-18
§ – CALDER PRINCE….-21
TWIN APPEAL….-25
BOUCHER….-40
§ – KENSTONE….-40

NOTES: My top rated tries ground/trip and track for the very first time today.

If I do opt to play anything here it’ll be a tiny 20/80 ECHO OF LIGHTNING. He is 4-12 ground, 2-5 trip and 1-3 track….statistically lumps ahead of these. Rates fourth best, is drawn “second best” (as is my top one), and it could be that’s the place to be running from.

Right now though, a no play race for me.

DUTCH:
20/80:
EXOTICS:
LAY:

YORK 4-40 – CLASS 2

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS: M/H-L

T§ – KHAIRAAT….+13
§* – SPEED COMPANY….+9
§* – STORM KING….+8
§3* – TITI MAKFI….+7
T§* – BROROCCO….+1
§* – SNOANO….+1
§* – AWAKE MY SOUL….-5
§* – WEEKEND OFFENDER….-6
§* – BEARDWOOD….-10
T* – DARK RED….-11
T§* – FIRST FLIGHT….-15
§* – SPRING OFFENSIVE….-15
T – UAE PRINCE….-17
* – SAVE THE BEES….-17
* – GULF OF POETS….-17
TH§ – BAYDAR….-25
T* – NICHOLAS T….-25
§ – KENTUCKYCONNECTION….-40
BRAVERY….-40
T – EDDYSTONE ROCK….-40

NOTES: T§ icons, anyone? My top rated represents the same connections that produced us that 11/1 winner yesterday.

Does he fit “statistically”?

We have had just nine previous runnings of this handicap and five have been won by 4-y-o’s….a tick in that box.

Eight of the nine winners carried 9st or more….another tick.

The winner has been in the front five on the tissue in seven of those nine races….he’s currently trading favourite so, a tick in that box.

It all looks to good to be true, doesn’t it!

I cannot though, ignore this so, I’ll just have a decent 20/80 and see if those runes have been cast right.

DUTCH:
20/80: KHAIRAAT
EXOTICS:
LAY:

NEWMARKET 5-00 – CLASS 4

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS: M-H/L

T* – GENERAL ALEXANDER….+18
T§* – NINJAGO….+10
* – COOL BAHAMIAN….+10
* – SYRIAN PEARL….+10
§3* – JULE IN THE CROWN….+8
T* – BAHAMIAN DOLLAR….+8
* – CURIOUS FOX….+5
§* – CLEAR SPRING….-1
T* – MESHARDAL….-7
T§ – THE COMMENTADORE….-20

NOTES: The two races I have worked on here have no history at all so it’s ratings and icons only or, leave them be.

Right now my gut felling is, leave them along. I’m interested in that 3-y-o topping my figures in the 5-35pm race but this looks/feels weird.

I have always liked NINJAGO. He last won in 2015 though but, he’s back in a small field race, they’ve booked Smullen to ride and he might place.

I’ll ponder a while.

DUTCH:
20/80:
EXOTICS:
LAY:

NEWMARKET 5-35 – CLASS 4

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS: NONE

T3 – TALLINKSI….+16
MUSHARRIF….-14
* – EXCELLENT GEORGE….-19
OH SO SASSY….-22
* – FOXY FOREVER….-22
3 – MAGICAL DREAMER….-25
JUST US TWO….-40
T3 – LIQUID….-40
DIAMOND LADY….-40
3 – ALWAYS AMAZING….-40

NOTES:

DUTCH:
20/80:
EXOTICS:
LAY:

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