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Today’s Full Ratings 23/08/17

Karen and I were taken to dinner on Monday evening by Andy, the guy who had the idea of Astech Gold. He has been a supporter of Post Racing and our projects for a goodly while now and whilst we were dining he received a phone call. Whilst he was taking that call I took the opportunity to see how my punt on ICE AGE had got on.

As he finished his call I gave him the good news a winner had been punted @ 7/1 and he told me that was what the call had been about.

Astech Gold now live and I’ll be putting together a Newsletter over the next couple of days. In it will be a code that gives you a free weeks trial of the software.

Over the last few months it has not only been interesting seeing what it does and getting a grasp of how it does it, but also seeing how the people working on the system, which is a personal staking advisor (more on this in that Newsletter), are utilising my work to test it and coming up with micro-systems of their own (Gary, you’ll be very interested in some of those, I’m sure), and Andy is always keen to share those results with me….much appreciation for those!

I received an image via WhatsApp yesterday that shows the profit achieved since Saturday, having a starting bank of £1000. They have achieved a profit of £578 and that included using that NH sighter I posted up in the Newsletter you received yesterday morning.

More on all of this later.

Today we have three meetings, including the first day of the Ebor meeting at York. I only have one rated race there and a pair from Carlisle but we’ve also several OF INTEREST from all three.

Later this morning I’ll be sending you out a second Newsletter that will contain a bit of Profiling, full ratings and the text applied to those races but, for now, you have the top six rated for those three I’ve finalised. Full figures will be on the website by 10-30am.

Please be very aware York is going to get hit by rain from mid morning and it’ll most likely be on until around 3-00pm. I’ll keep my eye on going updates and if the figures etc are compromised, I’ll let you know.

Have a good day!

Kindest regards

Ron

OF INTEREST SELECTIONS

GREEN FORTUNE
(York 4-50) – 20/80
GEESALA BRAVE
(Carlisle 1-35) – place only
UP STICKS AND GO
(Carlisle 1-35) – straight win
DARK CONFIDANT
(Carlisle 5-25) – straight win
TARTE TROPEZIENE
(Bath 4-00) – straight win

TODAY’S RATINGS AND ADVICE

YORK 1-55 – CLASS 2

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS: H-L-M

* – EDWARD LEWIS….+4
* – LINE OF REASON….+2
* – THESME….+1
* – ROBOT BOY….-1
* – OUT DO….-3
§* – MOVE IN TIME….-6
* – HOOF IT….-9
T* – MOVIESTA….-10
* – SHAMSON….-13
§* – WATCHABLE….-15
* – DESERT LAW….-15
* – EL ASTRONAUTE….-17
T* – A MOMENTOFMADNESS….-19
§3* – AFENDEM….-19
§* – HOOFALONG….-22
* – SOIE D’LEAU….-22
T§* – TITHONUS….-25
* – ORION’S BOW….-31
T§ – GRACIOUS JOHN….-32

NOTES: Obviously we have this potential issue with the rain and therefore a going change.

This race is only eight years old so stats are limited but what I can tell you is that horses aged 5+ have won six of those runnings and nothing carrying less than 9st has won a single one.

Five of the last eight winners carried between 9st and 9st 6lb so whilst it is possible to hump a big weight to victory, it’s most likely to be one lurking just underneath the weight carriers, that lands the pot.

The one horse inside my top six rated that qualifies is THESME.

My reading of the potential draw bias before any rain arrives is leaning me very slightly towards high overlook….THESME has the 2 box.

I only have one drawn high in my top six but MOVE IN TIME falls just outside the weight stat so even with that O’Meara trained horse not having won since September 2015, I would have omitted it from my own play regardless.

My top carries the correct weight, is also drawn low and whilst being born a little to early based on my findings, the fact two of the last four winners were 4-y-o’s does mean I have to include him in my dutch.

Looking for the third in my own dutch I’m thinking the market is a decent enough guide.

The winner of this race could have been located in the front four on the tissue in three of the last five runnings and in four of the last seven so it’s not a bad guide….I just wish I had more to work with in terms of empirical data because that does not help me much at all.

I’m thinking, therefore, I’ll just work with my top three as all are drawn on the same side and the “best” draw” looks to have been wasted on those that have it.

No favourite has been successful but five of the eight so far have finished in the first four home….augurs well for place only punters of EDWARD LEWIS.

THESME appeals most for my 20/80. Raced 18 times to date, won three, placed in nine and the only previous occasion on which Tinkler secured the services of Dettori to ride the mare, they got chinned close home at Goodwood in a 16 runner Class 2.

DUTCH: EDWARD LEWIS, LINE OF REASON, THESME
20/80: THESME
EXOTICS: EDWARD LEWIS, LINE OF REASON, THESME
LAY: NONE

CARLISLE 3-15 – CLASS 4

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS: M-L-H

T* – SHOW PALACE….+17
§* – CONFESSIONAL….+10
§3 – TWIZZELL….+9
§* – POMME DE TERRE….+4
* – LEXINGTON PLACE….+2
* – TARBOOSH….-4
* – MY NAME IS RIO….-5
* – DESERT ACE….-13
§ – MEMORIES GALORE….-16
GEOFF POTTS….-24

NOTES: Nothing like as much to say about either of these but my top pair boast three ticks:

SHOW PALACE – 3-4 ground, 8-16 trip and 1-2 track
CONFESSIONAL – 3-13 ground, 4-49 trip and 1-1 track.

TWIZZELL needs the ground to dry out a little bit if I’m reading that once correctly but being a 3-y-o and not overly exposed, that could be an assumption that’ll come back to bite me.

I’ll work with my top pair, as they’ve fallen.

DUTCH: SHOW PALACE, CONFESSIONAL
20/80: SHOW PALACE
EXOTICS: SHOW PALACE, CONFESSIONAL
LAY: NONE

CARLISLE 4-25 – CLASS 5

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS:

* – I’M DAPPER TOO….+15
* – ARCHIE’S ADVICE….+12
AMY BLAIR….-2
GLANCE MY WAY….-18
WARFARE….-21
* – QUOTELINE DIRECT….-31
EASTERN DRAGON….-40
3 – SAVANNAH MOON….-40
3 – ZIHAAM….-40
INDIAN GIVER….-40
3 – DUCK EGG BLUE….-40
LUKOUTOLDMAKEZBAK….-40

NOTES: My top rated is unbeaten here….3-3, is 2-5 ground, 2-4 trip….he looks rock solid.

I’ve always liked ARCHIE’S ADVICE, he’s the kind of horse they get a win or two out of each season. The trainer of that one also saddles AMY BLAIR but whilst she’s 3-3 trip, the 0-4 ground stat would surely negate that positive?

I expect the winner to be in my top three and will look to see how best to play them.

Right now, it’s as they’ve fallen.

DUTCH: I’M DAPPER TOO, ARCHIE’S ADVICE, AMY BLAIR
STRAIGHT WIN: I’M DAPPER TOO
EXOTICS: NONE
LAY: NONE

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