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Today’s Full Ratings 21/08/17

Another 2 from 2 for the OF INTEREST section….bumped up the profits on Gary’s stats pages, that’s for sure!

Well, proof, if anyone ever needed it, that when we have a weather system hanging around, such as we do now, we need to sit on our hands.

Gary’s top rated stats show a loss of nearly 50% of the seasons profits in one week, and that’s going to stop.

Nobody would…or should….have bet at Newbury and Newmarket on Saturday because the ground had gone and I did emphasise that in the Newsletters.

However, if I provides ratings, Gary will use them for stats purposes, irrespective of what I’ve written so, whilst I’ve spent most of last week twiddling my thumbs from the point of betting, the stats reflect we had a stinker.

The T Factor stats are still positively glowing. I knew they would be.

The one “T” that has been grabbing my attention is the T§….those icons indicate we have a horse making a round trip of at least 300 miles, that has been given a good draw based on my own perception of a draw bias.

If you had punted all such horses since May 1st you would have placed 210 bets, enjoyed 29 winners and produced a profit of 122.64 points.

Today we have just one such animal and it’s running in the best race I have worked on in what seems like yonks.

AFRICAN FRIEND rates just 17th on my figures but that’s simply because in a race we have not a single 3-y-o and 19 runners going to post, this 4-y-o has had just two career starts and is therefore simply impossible to handicap accurately.

The Racing Post “verdict” section suggests the horse is nap material but obviously whoever was responsible for that can only be making that decision based on potential. There are horses in the race that on form, would have to be considered superior but I can understand why they’ve napped it.

The runner up on the day this horse won at Windsor has won it’s next two races so the form has been rubber stamped and let’s face it, this horse can only improve.

Henry Candy, who is a master and bringing one along slowly if required, has given the horse a break since that run (July 1st), but today sends him on a round trip of 438 miles and the market has spotted everything I’ve said about this horse….he’s trading shorter than 3/1 on Betfair and it’s close to 8/1 bar the favourite.

I’m pretty confident Gary will be introducing a losing top rated horse into the stats databases!….but adding one to the + related to horses wearing the T§ icons.

You have figures for Lingfield and Thirsk below, with Windsor to follow later. The race at Lingfield is another kind of race I wince at….not a single runner has winning form on the going that I had to work with when I prepped my work last night.

Loving Thirsk though!

Have a great day!

Kindest regards

Ron

OF INTEREST SELECTIONS

AL MUSTASHAR
(Thirsk 2-15) – straight win
PIEDITA
(Lingfield 3-00) – straight win
QIANLONG
(Windsor 5-20) – straight win

TODAY’S RATINGS AND ADVICE

LINGFIELD 2-30 – CLASS 5

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS:

FEARLESS LAD….-12
3 – PETE SO HIGH….-17
3 – LOVE CONQUERS….-22
LIGHT OF AIR….-35
3 – PREROGATIVE….-35
TINKER TAILOR….-37
ARCHIMENTO….-40
3 – RAJ BALARAJ….-40

NOTES: With not a single one of these having managed a win on the going as currently described, I’ll not get involved in guessing which of the 3-y-o’s will rise to the task.

DUTCH:
20/80:
EXOTICS:
LAY: NONE

THIRSK 3-15 – CLASS 4

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS: M-H-L

* – MON BEAU VISAGE….+11
§3 – SIDEWINDER….+10
* – BRIYOUNI….+9
* – SOVEREIGN BOUNTY….+7
H* – SHEARIAN….+4
§ – OFF ART….-5
§* – DESTROYER….-8
WORLDS HIS OYSTER….-18
3 – VAULTED….-18
CELTIC ARTISAN….-22
§ – DIFFERENT JOURNEY….-33
WHITKIRK….-40

NOTES:

DUTCH:
20/80:
EXOTICS:
LAY: NONE

THIRSK 3-45 – CLASS 4

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS: H-L-M

* – POINT OF WOODS….+13
* – GRANDAD’S WORLD….+10
* – OLIVIA FALLOW….+8
§* – LANDING NIGHT….+8
§* – FLASH CITY….+8
§* – ELYSIAN FLYER….+4
* – BRONZE BEAU….+3
ALSVINDER….+1
* – L C SALOON….+1
T – ETERNALIST….-5
H* – B FIFTY TWO….-7
* – PEA SHOOTER….-8
* – MYSTERIOUS GLANCE….-12
§ – FRUIT SALAD….-19
INVINCIBLE RIDGE….-19
§ – BOGART….-23
T§ – AFRICAN FRIEND….-27
§ – MEMORIES GALORE….-30
INTERLINK….-37

NOTES: I said all I need to say about this race up above. The most likely winner is AFRICAN FRIEND for those reasons discussed.

I’ll simply watch this one.

DUTCH:
20/80:
EXOTICS:
LAY: NONE

THIRSK 4-45 – CLASS 6

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS:

3* – CLENYMISTRA….+10
* – SEPAL….-23
* – IN FOCUS….-24
* – CORREGGIO….-30
IVOR’S INVESTEMENT….-40
ARITHMETIC….-40
LUV U WHATEVER….-40
STECCANDO….-40
3 – DECIMA….-40

NOTES: My top rated is simply miles clear on my numbers, has the three ticks, is a 3-y-o topping my ratings and is 2-6 for David O’Meara since joining that yard.

My figures look right and I fully expect the winner and placed horses to be in my top three but dutching and combo exotics will yield diddly so I’ll just have a straight win punt my top rated.

DUTCH:
STRAIGHT WIN: CLENYMISTRA
EXOTICS:
LAY: NONE

THIRSK 5-15 – CLASS 6

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS:

* – MELABI….+10
* – CALLIOPE….+9
* – INFINITI….-24
SURROUND SOUND….-32
DREAM FREE….-34
3 – GOOD TIME AHEAD….-36
PERCY’S PRINCESS….-40
PENNERLEY….-40
3 – SILVER GLEAM….-40

NOTES: My top pair look rock solid. Both have three ticks and with INFINITI the only other runner in the race having managed a win on the ground we have here right now, I’m happy the winner is in my top two.

DUTCH: MELABI, CALLIOPPE
20/80: MELABI
EXOTICS: MELABI, CALLIOPPE
LAY: NONE

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