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Royal Ascot Special 2017 – Tuesday

Here we go, five days of extremely long hours and brilliant racing. I will provide you with Profiling each evening for all races that can accurately be profiled and each morning you will receive a second Newsletter that will include ratings for the handicaps at both Royal Ascot and the “off meeting”.

The Tuesday is usually quite simple to work with and the week gets more difficult as the week goes on. 

So, let’s get on with it.

QUEEN ANNE STAKES

Do not look at horses aged older than five. If one wins this it’ll buck so many trends that I’m quite sure I can ignore those older than five.

First shortlist consists of four and five year olds:

AMERICAN PATRIOT
DEAUVILLE
DUTCH CONNECTION
DUTCH UNCLE
ENNAADD
KOOL KOMPANY
OH THIS IS US
RIBCHESTER
TOSCANINI
MISS TEMPLE CITY
SPECTRE

The weight range is an irrelevance so we’ll now look at the market and how that shapes things.

In the last 10 runnings of this the winner could be found in the front three on the tissue. That’s not unusual in Group 1 races as only a few horses are actually that good.

Tomorrow only one runner fits the profile the criteria listed above creates:

RIBCHESTER

The current second and third favourites are both six year olds and only two of the last 20 representing that age group have even placed in this.

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: RIBCHESTER – STRAIGHT WIN

COVENTRY STAKES

This has been a lucky race for me. The usual starting point of age/weight are of no use as this lot are all juveniles carrying the same weight.

You need to be arriving for this race off the back of a win. Only one winner in the last 33 years has taken the race coming off the back of a defeat so, first shortlist:

ARAWAK
BROTHER BEAR
CHOOKIE DUNEDIN
DE DRUYNE HORSE
DENAAR
HEADWAY
MURILLO
NEBO
PRINCE OF THE DARK
RAJASINGHE
RED ROMAN
ROMANISED
ZAMAN

That gets rid of five.

Nine of the last 10 winners of this race arrived unbeaten and so we’ll now weed out any of those above having suffered a defeat:

ARAWAK
BROTHER BEAR
CHOOKIE DUNEDIN
DENAAR
NEBO
PRINCE OF THE DARK
RAJASINGHE
ROMANISED
ZAMAN

Now down to half the current entry.

We now look to the market for clues and it’s a fact that only one of the last 10 winners won at a double figure price so we’ll cull those trading 10/1 or bigger:

ARAWAK
BROTHER BEAR
DENAAR

Now we are cooking on gas. Down to three and manageable.

A couple of years ago I advocated we punted THE WOW SIGNAL on the basis he was a winner of his only previous outing and that was because four to the seven previous winners fitted that profile. However, it has now event itself out, four of the last six winners having won twice or more.

ARAWAK is impossible for me to gauge properly as he won a four runner race on muddy dirt on his debut and how that translates to an 18 runner race of a furlong further on good to firm turf, I have no idea.

He may well do what a lot of Wesley Ward runners do which is, blitz the lids, go like stink and never been seen by the opposition again until they all head back to stables.

I’m looking at how the draw might effect a decision regarding that trio but it’s all very ground dependent so I’m looking at market position to arrive at a solution to this one.

When CARAVAGGIO won this last year he was the seventh winning favourite in the last 11 runnings of the race and right now BROTHER BEAR heads the tissue.

That, of course, is open to change as the betting starts to warm up but right now, I’m with the Harrington horse.

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: BROTHER BEAR (or whatever trades favourite at the off) – STRAIGHT WIN

KING STAND STAKES

One of my favourite races and we’ve enjoyed success here in the past. however, we again have a Wesley Ward runner, LADY AURELIA, who will skittle all trends if she wins this.

Firstly, she’s a 3-y-o and only one of those have won this in the last 10 years. 

Only two favourites have managed to take this in the same period of time….none since the Aussie flying machine, MISS ANDRETTI (2009)

I know she’s good but she’s never going to be a Profile selection so, let’s see if we can get her beaten.

Six of the last eight winners were aged 5 & 6….first shortlist:

ALPHA DELFINI
ARDHOOMEY
COTAI GLORY
FINAL VENTURE
PROFITABLE
SIGNS OF BLESSING

In the years since the Aussies dominated this event, six of the eight winners started a single figure price and eight of the last 10 have done so. Whilst it looks a tremendously difficult race to work out it is another Group 1 race that will go to the best horses, which again accounts for market position. 

SIGNS OF BLESSING

Only one qualifier. The French gelding is a fair old flying machine who was beaten just 3/4 of a length in the six furlong Golden Jubilee last season. Over this furlong shorter trip and given his front running style, I’m hoping a 20/80 yields at least a place and a profit.

Obviously the two girls at the bottom of the weights will be very tough to beat but I’ll go where my profiling has sent me.

POSTRACING PROFILE SELECTION: SIGNS OF BLESSING – 20/80

ST JAMES’S PALACE STAKES

We do not need to spend much time, if any, on this. Eight of the last 10 winners had won the 2000Gns…Irish or english…or both.

Seven of the last 10 winners went off favourite, with five of those odds on.

The only selection Profiling can suggest is CHURCHILL

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: CHURCHILL – STRAIGHT WIN

ASCOT STAKES

Very few flat trained runners stay this trip and nine of the last 10 winners were trained by guys and gals better known for getting winners over hurdles.

I’m going there first….a list of trainers better known for jump racing:

INICIAR (Pipe)
SHREW (Jardine)
THOMAS HOBSON (Mullins)
HIGH SECRET (Nicholls)
OCEANE (King)
GALIZZI (Vaughan)
WHO DARES WINS (King)
BEYOND CONCEIT (Henderson)
WOLFCATCHER (Williams)
RAINBOW DREAMER (King)

No point looking at weight carried for helping to narrow the list as anything in the weight banding 9-00st – 9st 10lb can win this if records are anything to go by.

What i can do is look at the official ratings for help. No fewer than 11 of the last 15 were rated 83 to 93 so from that first list we’ll go for those that qualify:

GALIZZI (Vaughan)
WHO DARES WINS (King)
BEYOND CONCEIT (Henderson)
WOLFCATCHER (Williams)
RAINBOW DREAMER (King)

We lose several fancied ones there, including the current short priced favourite, THOMAS HOBSON. He has not raced on the flat for 1333 days but from the moment he went handicapping for John Gosden, his form figures produced read 11211. Trained by the bloke that has won two of these in the last 10 seasons and ridden by the best jockey in the world right now, I could end up looking a tad daft but, I have what I have.

The market is the place relook next because the stats show me that in the last 27 runnings of this, 19 winners were in the front five on the tissue.

I guess it’s a bit like a Group 1 race in that only a handful can win such races.

WHO DARES WINS (King)
BEYOND CONCEIT (Henderson)

Down to a brace and they can be dutched to make a profit, if we’ve really got this favourite cooked. I will certainly be doing that.

In search of one to punt though I’m looking at age. Seven of the last 10 winners were aged seven of younger and of that pair WHO DARES WINS fits the bill for me. 

He also ran well in a race I feel is a good guide to this one, a decent trial. 

The Chester Cup has produced three of the last 16 winners and WHO DARES WINS Aran a blinder in this season renewal. 

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: WHO DARES WINS – 20/80

WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES

Do not expect me to find the winner of this. If I do consider the possibility I’ve done deals with devils.

Six of the last 11 winners came home at 100/1, 33/1, 20/1, 20/1, 16/1 and 14/1. John Best, who trained the 100/1 winner has also trained one to finish second at 50/1.

This really ain’t easy at all.

It is only a Listed race and so we have no cream as such, ready to rise to the top….it’s like a bottle of homogenised.

Now the frighteners are on, I’ll add some positive stuff. Only three of the last 10 winners have been bigger than 16/1 so I’ll pop a shortlist together of horses priced 16/1 down:

ELIZABETH DARCY
DECLARATIONOFPEACE
NOOTKA SOUND
ROUSSEL
ANOTHER BATT
CORINTHIA KNIGHT
SIMMY’S COPSHOP
SOUND OF SILENCE
T FOR TANGO

I’ve found an interesting stat that I’ll apply next. Only one winner in the last 10 runnings of this had finished out of the first four on any of their previous starts.

ELIZABETH DARCY
DECLARATIONOFPEACE
NOOTKA SOUND
ROUSSEL
CORINTHIA KNIGHT
SIMMY’S COPSHOP
SOUND OF SILENCE
T FOR TANGO

We only lose one but, it’s gone and we are getting there.

Whereas this used to be a race the smaller trainers could get a winner on the Royal Ascot board the last few years have seen it go to Gosden, O’Brien, Ward, Ryan, Fahey….they have won six of the last eight so, lets take it as read the bigger yards are now looking to take this scalp.

ELIZABETH DARCY (Ward)
DECLARATIONOFPEACE (O’Brien)
NOOTKA SOUND (Ward)
ROUSSEL (Appleby)
SIMMY’S COPSHOP (Fahey)
SOUND OF SILENCE (Appleby)

I’m confident the winner lurks in that final six.

Six of the last 10 winners arrived here off the back of a win so given the difficulty this race presents and our need for just one to go to work with, we now have:

ELIZABETH DARCY (Ward)
DECLARATIONOFPEACE (O’Brien)
NOOTKA SOUND (Ward)
ROUSSEL (Appleby)

I have just looked at the tissue again and they are the front four in the betting right now so, perhaps the odds compilers are working exactly as I am here.

The two Ward runners are, again, seriously difficult to weight up. He has though won this twice in the last eight years and most likely brings fillies that are better than Listed class to run in it. 

ELIZABETH DARCY won on firm turf at Indiana Downs…means nothing to me, either. NOOTKA SOUND has been trusted to Frankie Dettori and her win came on fast dirt at Keeneland. They have struck up a winning partnership but the horses Ward has won this with in the past have been entrusted to American based jockeys. I would therefore suggest the turf winner, ridden by Velazquez, who rode the 2009 winner, is the preferred.

In saying all of that I rule both out as favourites don’t win this and Velzquez rides the favourite so I’m running with DECLARATIONOFPEACE and ROUSSEL.

I’m running with DECLARATIONOFPEACE. My reasoning is based on the fact the runner up behind this horse, who beat it six lengths, has since won by nearly three lengths itself so, the form looks solid.

It’s the least punter friendly race today but I’ll go 20/80.

POST RACING PROFILING SELECTION: DECLARATIONOFPEACE

Best of luck tomorrow. 

Kindest regards
 
Ron

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