This one is a CAMELOT colt who only cost 80,000gns out of Book 2 but who holds a Derby entry for next year.
The second for your trackers is OLYMPIC ODYSSEY and this is another CAMELOT in truing with George Scott. This one cost a little bit more out of Book1 (170,000gns)
You will not find him listed for Trackers just yet so I’ll keep a close eye out for him being entered up. He is reckoned to be the best juvenile in the yard.
On to tomorrow’s Profiling….
CHURCHILL took this race last season and I guess it remains to be seen if we have one a good in here tomorrow. He’s the best winner of this race by a country mile so I doubt it.
It’s an all juvenile race that again sees me having to start away from criteria I like most and we’ll kick of by using the stat that tells us 24 of the last 28 winners were in there front fopur on the tissue:
The first named comes from the same yard as CHURCHILL and will go off short. When a favourite goes off odds on, it wins. Only four have done so and all visited the winners enclosure.
Eight of the last 10 favourites finished in the first three home so a Placepot banker for sure….so you can safely bung SEPTEMBER in that play.
This horse is actually unique. Aiden O’Brien has saddled 25 juveniles so far this season and this is the only one to have won first time up. That’s a strange stat right enough.
You want a horse coming here having had just one run, too. That is what 11 of the last 19 winners did so I’ll take that on board and take out the more “exposed” runners from the quartet we have now:
Considering fillies are so heavily outnumbered in this race they have a superb strike rate. They have produced three winners in the last 15 years plus, four placed in the last five years and the second placed horse in 2010.
I have two fillies in there and will go with them:
MASAR beat one of today’s OF INTEREST selections a short head on debut and it would be nice to see a form boost for that one (not least because it will mean we punt a winner tonight), but it’s the girls I expect to finish on top.
I’m going to cover two bases here because whilst odds on favourites excel, those odds against are just 3-10 across the last 10 runnings of this race and whilst Mark Johnston hasn’t had a winner in the last 10 years, his record in this race prior to that was superb….three winners and a third from just six runners so, he knows when he has one tough enough to be going over this trip at this time of a season.
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: SEPTEMBER – STRAIGHT WIN, NYALETI – PLACE ONLY
A race I will be rating in the morning.
If you are older than four and trying to win this, forget it. Just take a look at the results of this race across the last three years. They were the first four home last season and have won 13 of the last 16 runnings.
That’s where we start then:
Seven of the last 10 winners carried between 9st and 9st 6lb so of those five I’ll run with:
Only one winner in the last five seasons went off bigger than 9/1 so horses trading double figure odds are out:
Six years ago they changed how the stalls were numbered and instead of going high to low, they now go low to high. Over the 10 furlong trip here you hit a bend after about a furlong so if you are trapped out wide, you’ve got work on.
I want the lowest drawn runner of that pair carrying my shekels:
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: KHAIRAAT – STRAIGHT WIN
If four year olds dominate that rate above, they do even better here. Nine of the last 10 winners were 4-y-o’s and that includes the 10/1 winner we punted last season, DARTMOUTH….but he’s a five year old now, trying to defend his crown.
First shortlist gives us:
ACROSS THE STARS
WINGS OF DESIRE
Traditionally you’d not want anything trading a double figure price in the next shortlist. True, the last two winners went of 10//1 and 12/1 but prior to that you needed to be in the front three on the tissue as seven of the previous eight winners had done so:
WINGS OF DESIRE
A fascinating stat has shown up and that relates to the Coronation Cup run at Epsom.
You do not particularly want to have won that race but seven of the last 19 winners had run in that race and finished 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th….and of that pair IDAHO comes up smelling of roses, having finished 6th beaten just over seven lengths by stable mate HIGHLAND REEL, who won well here earlier in the week.
I was interested in the race readers comments regarding that run, “rallied 1f out and kept on under hands and heels riding inside final furlong”
A 20/80 the O’Brien runner appeals.
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: IDAHO – 20/80
DIAMOND JUBILEE STAKES
Four and five year olds dominate this but as we’d lose just three of the 19 strong field, I could hardly call that a shortlist.
Everything in the race would fit the weight banding, too so, where else to go?
The market it is then….seven of the last 10 winners were in the front six on the tissue:
THE TIN MAN
THE RIGHT MAN
With only one winner having taken this on seasonal debut in the last 40 years you’d rule out LIBISA BREEZE on that score.
THE TIN MAN
THE RIGHT MAN
Only three favourites have managed to pull this off in the last 10 runnings so I’m going to drop the hotpot LIMATO.
THE TIN MAN
THE RIGHT MAN
All four fit the bill in as much as they have won over six furlongs….an absolute “must have” on the CV. However, 13 of the last 15 winners had, at some point in time, raced over seven furlongs so, we’ll see if any qualify.
THE RIGHT MAN
I will dutch this pair for starters but I’m looking for one of the pair to play solo.
Unless I blinked during the search I cannot find a french winner of this race so I have to go with TASLEET. Over to you, Jim Crowley.
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: TASLEET – 20/80
Here you once again want to work only with four and five year olds. The simple fact is, they’ve taken 16 of the last 18 runnings of this event.:
Six of the last 10 winners carried 9st or more and that actually includes he last five winners so anything causing less than that weight will now be withdrawn:
Coming here off the back of a win is a negative but a top three finish, which seven of the last 10 winners had, looks a good way to go next so I’m removing last time out winners plus, anything that finished out of the first four (six of the last 10 winners were actually a runner up), last time out:
Now, I have a feeling the draw bias has been deliberately tampered with. It has swung to far the other way now for me to think otherwise but tomorrow I will be expecting the high drawn runners to come to the fore here. The last seven winners of this have been drawn 31, 11, 15, 22, 27, 21, 28
I ruling out the only low drawn runner in here next:
They are currently priced 34, 13 and 21 so for sure, the dutch is on.
For my solo play I’m going back to the age grouping. Four year olds currently lag behind the 5+ year olds and with five year olds having won the last four runnings, I’m going down that route.
MUNTADAB also came home second last time out and he just “fits”
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: MUNTADAB – 20/80
QUEEN ALEXANDRA STAKES
What a way to finish. We have 20 runners going over trip less than two miles short of a Grand National.
The winner last year was COMMISSIONED @ 12/1 and it’s a fact we can concentrate on the front six on the tissue. If you wanted to, you could be even more pedantic and run with the top three but, for now, let’s use the six:
US ARMY RANGER
For my winner I’m looking for horses that were racing over hurdles last season. I’m doing that because seven of the last eight winners had done just that:
If you saw him win the stayers race on the opening day you’ll know that he’s a serious piece of kit and if he is allowed to take his place here, he’ll be very hard to beat.
POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: THOMAS HOBSON – STRAIGHT WIN
Have a great evening