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Royal Ascot Special 2017 – Friday

I suffered seconditis today but it was nice to see the top rated horse (by the process I call “natural progression”), win the first of my Rated races at Ripon @ 9/1having been double figure prices.

I’ll cover today’s racing in tomorrow’s Newsletter and I’m now looking forward to seeing how the Ffos Las “sighter” gets on this evening.

ALBANY STAKES

The “grapevine” has been all about CLEMMIE but from a Profiling point of view, she cannot win this race. One of the hazards of working with races this light on stats, all aged and carting the same weight. Give me a normal all aged handicap anytime!

When she wins the 1000Gns next season, don’t say I didn’t tell you so. 

The poor relation to the Queen Mary but the last few winners of this have been decent kit.

We have had only 15 previous runnings of this so not as much history as most to look back through and we continue along the theme of the younger horses, this an all 2-y-o event with everything carrying the same weight so the two main criteria I like to start of a Profile are of no use at all.

So we go straight to the market. Seven of the last 10 favourites finished in the first three but only three of the last 10 have managed to win it. Definitely one for Placepots though and you’d pop ALPHA CENTURI in that bet as a banker.

You need to be arriving here a winner of your last race:

ALPHA CENTURI
ARMUM
BLACK SALTS
DIFFERENT LEAGUE
ELECTRI LANDLADY
ERTIYAD
FAIRYLAND
MADELINE
MISS BAR BEACH
NATURAL
PRINCESS PEGGY
WHITEFOUNTAINFAIRY

Eight of the last 10 winners could be found in the front seven on the tissue:

ALPHA CENTURI
BLACK SALTS
FAIRYLAND
NATURAL
PRINCESS PEGGY

Nine winners of this to date came here having won a maiden so from that list I’ll select:

BLACK SALTS
FAIRYLAND
NATURAL
PRINCESS PEGGY

The last named was run over by an idiot on a pushbike a couple of days ago….went through a red light and through a barrier, hitting the horse. Apparently all fine now despite suffering a graze.

Arriving with just one run on the board has been a positive, too. Eight winners to date have done so and that includes four of the last seven and all four have that feather on their caps.

Narrowing it down further, I’m struggling for anything positive as two are from the USA and I know nothing much about them, and the other pair represent the same owners.

Because we need a selection I’m going to select the only one of the four repenting a trainer that has won this race previously and that’s NATURAL.

Richard Hannon took this a couple of years ago with ILLUMINATE whilst Wesley Ward is 0-5…only one of that quintet even placing.

POST RACING SELECTION: NATURAL – 20/80

KING EDWARD THE VII STAKES

All 3-y-o’s again and same weight again so all I can do is what I’ve done previously.

Punters traditionally do ok with this one and 15 of the last 23 winners were in the front two on the tissue and so all I can do is suggest the winner is one of two:

CRYSTAL OCEAN
SIR JOHN LAVERY

Two reasons I cannot have the second named. The first is, he’s Irish trained and they have they have won just one in 42 years and, of the last 22 winners, only six had not won a race in the same season.

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: CRYSTAL OCEAN – STRAIGHT WIN

COMMONWEALTH CUP

Impossible to profile as we’ve only had two previous runnings of the race and it’ll be a few years yet before I can do anything with it.

NO SELECTION

CORONATION STAKES

Oh for a 30 runner all aged handicap to get after.

It’s another all 3-y-o contest. All carrying 9st and only seven going to post.

The winner will be in the first two on the tissue again, if normal trends continue so it’s a straight fight between WINTER and DABYAH.

Trained by the only two trainers with runners here to have saddled a winner of it, I’m not going to even attempt to defy logic.

If WINTER turns up in the same form as on the last couple of occasions she wins. I have not seen a more impressive 3-y-o all season….filly or colt.

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: WINTER – STRAIGHT WIN

QUEEN’S VASE

I’m not quite in tears….yet….but a 13 runner all 3-y-o handicap being run over a trip only one of them has won over before 

This used to be run over two miles and so genuinely I have nothing to work with in terms of trends and stats since it became a shorter race and upgraded to Group 2.

Only three trainers have saddled the winners of this in the last 10 years….O’Brien, Stoute and Johnston. Stoute doesn’t have a runner this year but the other pair do:

TIME TO STUDY
BELGRAVIA

They are the front pair on the tissue and are priced to dutch so that is what I’ll do to make a profit from this race:

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: TIME TO STUDY/BELGRAVIA – DUTCH

DUKE OF EDINBURGH STAKES

At last, a proper race to work with. My only problem right now is they have substitutes lined up and it could be I have to look at this again if something comes out.

I’ll go with what I have right now though and am already itching to get cracking on it.

I’ll start with age grouping….how I’ve longed to type that these past couple of days

Four year olds have won seven of the last 10 and four of the last five so my first shortlist:

BAYDAR
SOLDIER IN ACTION
WADIGOR
CAPE COVA
KNIGHTS TABLE
LUSTROUS LIGHT
PETITE JACK
SHABEEB
SIXTIES GROOVE
MAINSTREAM

Weight, which would normally be my next port of call but I’d rule out none of the 19 runners going to post on that score. What I will do next is scratch horses that didn’t finish in the first three home last time out because nine of the last 10 winners did just that:

SOLDIER IN ACTION
WADIGOR
CAPE COVA
MAINSTREAM

I’m going to the market now. Seven of the last 10 winners started shorter than 9/1 and of that quartet we are left with:

WADIGOR
MAINSTREAM

I’ll be dutching this pair but in search of a solo play I’m going to have to get all pedantic. The higher the draw the better since they changed how they lined up and with one drawn 11 and one draw 12, I have to go with WADIGOR, who has 12.

With two of the last five winners coming from 12, I’ll factor in a “lucky omen”….

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: WADIGOR – 20/80

This race will be rated in the morning and it’ll be good to see how it compares.

Have a great evening

Kindest regards
 
Ron

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