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Today’s Ratings and Advice 27/05/17

We have enjoyed a superb week of punting with some seriously nice returns produced. It’s great to be posting up on social media how well we are doing on a daily basis and if I had to pick a “favourite”, this would be it:
111/1 CSF, £139.80 EXACTA, 8/1 TOP RATED WINNER AND THE DUTCH!

From that morning’s Newsletter:

“AYR 4-50 – CLASS 5

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS: M-H-L

§* – GWORN….+11 – WON 8/1
T* – TRINITY STAR….+9 – 2ND 14/1
§* – RESTIVE….+9
ROYAL REGENT….+9
T* – MININGROCKS….+8
§* – SPES NOSTRA….+6
* – FALCON’S FIRE….-8
T – ARITHMETIC….-19
T§ – STRUMMER….-26
§ – BIT OF A QUIRKE….-35
STARDRIFTER….-39
EEZ EH….-40
T – AGE OF ELEGANCE….-40

NOTES: I have noted a very slight potential draw bias here but it would be nothing I’d suggest as a deal breaker if you fancied one drawn low.

Stats are thin on the ground and whilst my top pair do boast three ticks they are as weak as that draw bias and again would not be strong enough to suggest you can pin your faith in them being something to sway you one way or another.

It’s a race that has rated well though and I’d be happy to work with my top three to October Rules levels of staking.”

Post Racing has members that have been supporters of us for over 10 years. Results like that are the reason why.

When we get the weather we are seeing now, we get the results. It’s as simple as that. The rains that came the previous week ruined everything, and showed in the results produced.

I am being seriously selective in my own betting and have already seen the dividends. I know from e-mails and messages received, plenty are doing likewise and having some fun with this right now.

We will punt losers, that has never been any different, and we will have losing days because it can again, never be any different but weeks like this one cover those brilliantly.

I have not had time to watch any racing back from yesterday but will do that this morning. Karen and I had a superb day out yesterday and she asked me to thank those that send through their good wishes on her birthday.

TODAY

It’s weird again.

I have plenty of racing to look at, five meetings in all but, just four rated races to provide you with. Not a single rated race from the meetings taking place at Goodwood and Haydock.

I do not recall seeing so many handicaps being run over distances in excess of 12 furlongs on the same day. Added to that a “novelty” race being run for veterans and it’s a sorry bag indeed.

My plan, therefore, is to produce one heck of a Preview page for you on the new website….it’s up and running. Can you please make a trip over to the website around noon, login and report back any glitches you find…my guess is, I’ll hear from nobody!

You will find the site 1000 times faster, easier to navigate, less cluttered, and from June 1st I’ll be posting up Royal Ascot stuff.

You will start to find pages populated with text that have not been updated in a while, simply because I lost faith in what I was working with. One of our members, Brian, came to the rescue and has sorted it out.

Over the next few days you will receive a fair few newsletters advising you of the following:
An affiliate opportunity
The new packages being offered to current members at a discounted subscription fee (a code will be provided)
A new syndicate opportunity
….and plenty more.

I have two and a half years to get Post Racing to where I want it. I’ll need your help doing it.

CHESTER 3-05 – CLASS 2

PRECEIVED DRAW BIAS: L-M-H

T* – SOUND ADVICE….+20
* – ABOVE THE REST….+19
T* – ICE SLICE….+14
§ – MOUNT TAHAN….+11
T – VISCOUNT BARFIELD….+8
T§* – FASTNET TEMPEST….+4
H* – PENWORTHAM….±0
§* – GABRIAL’S KAKA….-1
T* – LAT HAWILL….-10
HILLBILLY BOY….-17
FUWAIRT….-40
T§ – MY TARGET….-40

NOTES: This is a stonking good race. Probably the one I’m most looking forward to.

We have a very short priced favourite in FASTNET TEMPEST, who trades currently around 5/4. He has the best draw in one….but he’s a horse that has to be held up and delivered as late as possible. He has the three icons I love to see next to a horses name.

Seven furlongs is definitely his trip….but around Chester?

My figures tell me SOUND ADVICE, the 12/1 winner I enjoyed in my dutch last time up (won here, beating the short priced lay I also advised), will again be competitive but, he’s only won back to back races once in his career to date.

ABOVE THE REST has to run from the 10 stall, which you think equates to racing in lead boots here. However, his Chester form figures read 3, 3, 1….interesting.

ICE SLICE ran third behind SOUND ADVICE here last time but was heavily punted to win that day. A previous course and distance winner, he’s drawn slightly higher than I’d like but that seven is not as heavy a pair of boots as those worn by the one above.

MOUNT TAHAN’s last two wins have come in August and unless the rain that has just started falling takes the sting out of the ground, the 0-5 going stat he has on good to firm looks set to become 0-6 despite a nice draw in four.

VISCOUNT BARFIELD comes from a yard that has been in decent form recently but he’s drawn in the car park. However, whilst it’s right to point out he has only won three of his 14 races to date, two of them have come here and his “track record” reads 1, 1, 2….I’d hang a hat on that peg!

So, do I accept that FASTNET TEMPEST has plenty going for him by virtue of trip, ground, draw and the fact they have send him on a good round trip, or do I say 5/4 is skinny for a hold up horse that might find his good draw actually stops him winning, given he has to have his head put in front just a few yards from the winning post?

Dilemma….but I got it right last time we had this issue to deal with and I’m going down the brave mans route.

I’ll dutch rated horses 1, 2 and 3, with exotics….and my 20/80 goes to ICE SLICE, who is drawn middle and 4lb better off with SOUND ADVICE, who beat him just over three lengths last time they raced here.

Really looking forward to this one.

CHESTER 3-40 – CLASS 4

H – DARK INTENTION….+12
ENERGIA FOX….-7
* – SANDS CHORUS….-10
* – WORLDS HIS OYSTER….-12
T* – FAST DANCER….-13
KAPSTADT….-31
T – MUBAJAL….-40
DRAGO….-40
GLANCE MY WAY….-40

NOTES: As weak as a kitten from a stats angle and if you play this it’s purely going to be down to the figures. My top rated is 1-2 at the track but 0-2 ground/0-1 trip.

One I’ll leave to one side and perhaps get involved in only if I’m clear of the layers and dropping a point or two is of no consequence.

YORK 3-15 – CLASS 3

T – WARP FACTOR….+11
* – CHANCERY….+9
* – DOLPHIN VILLAGE….-4
* – BE PERFECT….-19
T* – HAVANA BEAT….-28
* – DANCE KING….-33
T – ST MALO….-40
SEAN O’CASEY….-40
T – THEYDON GREY….-40
PARISH BOY….-40

NOTES: This is a weak Class 3. My top rated is 0-3 both trip and ground and runs here for the very first time today so, I’d be looking elsewhere for my winner.

CHANCERY, statistically, is the one. Even then he’s not exactly glowing….2-14 ground, just 2-23 trip and 3-16 track.

If you fancy the icons might help, then know that HAVANA BEAT, who has the T* icons, is 0-10 trip and 0-4 track….and just 1-12 ground.

If you took this to the “super vet”, Noel would put on his stern face, sit you down and tell you, “this is ugly, it’s not looking good at all. We might be left with just two options. Bin it, or euthanise it”.

SALISBURY 6-15 – CLASS 6

PRECEIVED DRAW BIAS: L-H-M

* – ROYAL NORMANDY….+8
THEWESTWALIAN….±0
T* – CHETAN….-3
§* – LIGHT FROM MARS….-7
H§ – TITUS SECRET….-8
§ – CHAMPAGNE BOB….-15
SWANTON BLUE….-18
* – INDIAN AFFAIR….-20
A DEFINITE DIAMOND….-21
FANTASY JUSTIFIER….-32
§ – LANGLEY VALE….-33
§ – DIVINE CALL….-36
NEW RICH….-39
LEITH BRIDGE….-40

NOTES: Dear me, this is as big a shocker as that first rated race is “stonking”!

It’s a Class 6 in which I’ve got a draw bias, assuming everything performs to it’s best. What are the chances of that happening?

Right now I’m drawn to CHETAN. He has his ground (2-8), he has his trip (6-28), but does he have his track (0-2)….

To punt this event I would need to have got well in front of the layers during the afternoon, have sunk a couple of Edradour and have adopted a frivolous attitude to my betting. The first two may have happened….the third?

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