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Today’s Ratings and Advice 12/05/17

The vast majority of the action today takes place this evening. Below you have my Ratings for all races but text has only been included in the lone race at Chester.

A second Newsletter will go out later, containing the text for any races to which it can be sensibly applied.

CHESTER

1-50 – CRABBIE’S EARL GROSVENOR HANDICAP  (Class 2)  (4yo+) Winner £18,675  13 runners7f127y Good ITV4

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS: L-M-H

T§* – ICE SLICE….+17
T – INTRANSIGENT….+11
* – HILLBILLY BOY….+10
* – SOUND ADVICE….+10
GRAND INQUISITOR….+10
§* – RENE MATHIS….+8
§* – GABRIAL’S KAKA….-6
T§ – EL HAYEM….-11
§* – MICHELE STROGOFF….-20
* – FUWAIRT….-21
CALDER PRINCE….-34
T – LAT HAWILL….-39
T – TRIBAL PATH….-40

NOTES: I’ve been suggesting this week that in races over seven furlongs here you can look to those drawn middle to get competitive and make the traditional low draw bias look wrong but here I’m seeing only low providing our winner, due to how the race will be run. 

If i’m wrong then SOUND ADVICE might well come through and enhance his brilliant 3-5 track stat. He is also 4-15 ground and 8-36 trip….but if that track stat is brilliant, HILLBILLY BOY’s 3-3 here is just awesome. He has a horrible high draw to work from though and it might stop him making it 4-4.

My top rated will be my solo play here….20/80….3-10 ground, 4-10 trip and 1-2 track, low draw to work from, he just has to break well and get a position to be competitive.

I have to dutch with that pair already mentioned though, simply because of their track craft and ratings. 

I had considered RENE MATHIS but even given he has draw/ground bang on his 0-7 track and 0-7 trip stats are simply not good enough…neither is his 1-11 on the ground as currently described.

My own play here is a dutch rated horses 1, 3, 4….exotics, too….and that 20/80 ICE SLICE.

NOTTINGHAM

6-50 – 49 SQUADRON HANDICAP  (Class 4)  (4yo+) Winner £5,175  11 runners 1m75y Good To Firm RUK

H – PIRATE’S TREASURE….+7
* – SAXO JACK….+5
* – PUMAFLOR….-16
* – ABUSHAMAH….-16
* – IMPERIAL STATE….-26
* – MAGIC CITY….-25
TOPOLOGY….-33
HOUSE OF COMMONS….-40
ZLATAN….-40
H – HARAZ….-40
INVICTUS….-40

NOTES:

8-30 – WITHAM SHIELD HANDICAP  (Class 6)  (4yo+) Winner £2,588  17 runners 6f18y Good To Firm RUK

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS: H-M-L

* – GOADBY….+11
§* – DIMINUTIVE….+9
§* – BOGSNOG….+9
* – VIRILE….-4
* – DEEDS NOT WORDS….-10
CAPTAIN SCOOBY….-16
* – LOUMARIN….-18
CLON ROCKET….-22
LE MANGE ENCHANTE….-23
§ – MULTIQUEST….-29
T§ – SPELLMAKER….-31
DALALAH….-37
§ – MANIPURA….-40
§ – JAZZ LEGEND….-40
KEENE’S POINTE….-40
T – TITUS SECRET….-40
SOCIALITES RED….-40

NOTES:

ASCOT

7-50 – MONTFORT HANDICAP  (Class 3)  (4yo+) Winner £7,763  7 runners 6f Good To Firm RUK

T* – NORMANDY BARRIERE….+9
* – LITTLE PALAVER….-3
T* – WATCHABLE….-14
MAZZINI….-17
* – MOONRAKER….-20
T – VENTUROUS….-40
T – SIGN OF THE KODIAC….-40

NOTES:

RIPON

7-05 – SIS TRUSTED DELIVERY PARTNER HANDICAP  (Class 4)  (4yo+) Winner £7,561  10 runners 6f Good To Firm ATR

* – MISHAAL….+10
* – LATHOM….+9
* – HONEYSUCKLE LIL….+8
STRAIGHTOTHEPOINT….+6
* – EXPLAIN….-18
* – SANDRA’S SECRET….-23
BOSSIPOP….-31
TASKEEN….-40
JOHNNY CAVAGIN….-40
MYWAYISTHEONLYWAY….-40

NOTES:

7-40 – SIS CELEBRATING 30 YEARS IN HORSERACING HANDICAP  (Class 3)  (4yo+) Winner £12,450  7 runners 1m1f170y Good To Firm ATR

* – LINCOLN ROCKS….+9
* – DANCE KING….+5
* – IMSHIVALLA….-1
* – SWIFT EMPEROR….-12
* – RAINBOW REBEL….-25
SANDS CHORUS….-32
H – HAIL CLODIUS….-40

NOTES:

8-15 – ROA/RACING POST OWNERS’ JACKPOT HANDICAP  (Class 5)  (4yo+) Winner £3,881  8 runners 2m Good To Firm ATR

H – REMBRANDT….+10
H* – ATTENTION SEEKER….+4
* – LA FRITTILAIRE….-5
* – MEDINA SIDONIA….-13
* – JAN SMUTS….-19
* – MYSTERIAL….-33
WISHING WELL….-40
NASHVILLE….-40

NOTES:

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