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Today’s Ratings and Advice 06/05/17

Please find below today’s Rated races.

Seven in all and in today’s Newsletter you will find another seven very much OF INTEREST.

Hopefully this weekend is as good as that we witnessed last!

NEWMARKET

1-50 – SPRING LODGE STAKES (HANDICAP) (FORMERLY THE SUFFOLK STAKES) (Class 2) (3yo+) Winner £31,125 10 runners 1m1f Good To Firm ITV

* – BANCNUANAHEIRANN….+1
* – NEXT STAGE….-2
* – BALLET CONCERTO….-8
* – PLAYFUL SOUND….-9
* – CENTRAL SQUARE….-11
* – BERKSHIRE….-15
* – GREAT HALL….-36
T – ABAREEQ….-37
GRAPEVINE….-40
T – DOLPHIN VISTA….-40

NOTES: My top rated is now a 10 year old who last won on turf in 2013….if you get involved in that one, you are a braver man than I, McDuff!

BERKSHIRE has outstanding stats….3-6 ground, 1-2 trip and 2-2 track and only once out of the frame in six runs on good to firm. You imagine he simply has to run well given he has so much going for him…..but form figures on seasonal debut read: 3, 9, 8

Stats are pretty weak after that one and it’s the pair below I’ll be working with. A dutch, a straight win punt NEXT STAGE, who is 1-1 here and 1-2 ground (tiers trip for the first time this afternoon.

No a race for getting heavily involved in, by any means.

GOODWOOD

2-40 – BETFRED “TREBLE ODDS ON LUCKY 15’S” HANDICAP (Class 2) (4yo+) Winner £32,34516 runners 7f Good To Firm ITV

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS: L-M-H

§* – ZWAYYAN….+10
* – CHARLES MOLSON….+3
T§* – ROLL ON RORY….-7
* – ICE AGE….-11
§ – ELTEZAM….-21
* – SHOW STEALER….-25
SUZI’S CONNOIUSSEUR….-29
FIFTYSHADESOFGREY….-31
§ – MAKE MUSIC….-32
THE WARRIOR….-33
FOX TROTTER….-36
BARON BOLT….-36
§ – LIGHTNING CHARLIE….-40
GOSSIPING….-40
§ – MEDBURN DREAM….-40
TOOFI….-40

NOTES; Another race that is weak from a stats angle and so I’ll trust to Ratings/icons….rated horses 1, 3 and 4 go into my dutch….it’s a 20/80 ZWAYYAN and exotics.

My reason for leaving CHARLES MOLSON from my play is the 0-4 track stat and he has a draw that is the equivalent of an additional 7lb of lead in the cloth.

3-15 – BETFRED “SUPPORTS JACK BERRY HOUSE” HANDICAP (Class 3) (4yo+) Winner £9,704 10 runners 5f Good RUK

PRECEIVED DRAW BIAS: L-M-H

* – STEPPER POINT….+6
§* – BOY IN THE BAR….±0
§* – A MOMENTOFMADNESS….-2
* – DARK SHOT….-7
§ – JUST US TWO….-19
* – JUST THAT LORD….-25
§ – VIBRANT CHORDS….-35
KASBAH….-39
WASEEM FARIS….-40
T – GAMESOME….-40

NOTES: If WASEEM FARIS wins this I’ll be stunned….0-15 ground, 0-7 track and just 4-51 trip. Thing is, this has a bit of a “whiff” about it. None has won here previously, only one has won more than once on the going as currently described (my top rated), and because BOY IN THE BAR is 0-2 here I’ll drop him, set up a dutch rated horses 1 & 3, go 20/80 A MOMENTOFMADNESS because he has the draw right, and pop a tiny exotic on.

THIRSK

2-30 – TOTEPOOLLIVEINFO.COM HANDICAP (Class 4) (4yo+) Winner £6,469 8 runners 6f Good To Firm RUK

T – MY DAD SYD….+8
* – ART OBSESSION….-5
* – MAGICAL EFFECT….-6
* – BOGART….-14
WILDE EXTRAVAGANCE….-40
T – SUQOOR….-40
TASKEEN….-40
T – GEOFF POTTS….-40

NOTES: From a stats angle it’s a Dodo!

MAGICAL EFFECT has three ticks 1-2 ground, 1-7 trip and 1-3 track…so I’ll have a small 20/80 for interest.

3-40 – TOTEPOOL THIRSK HUNT CUP HANDICAP (Class 2) (4yo+) Winner £16,173 18 runners1m Good To Firm RUK

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS: H-M-L

* – SPRING OFFENSIVE….+14
§* – WORLDS HIS OYSTER….+12
T* – LAT HAWILL….+9
* – BRIYOUNI….+9
* – SILVERY MOON….+9
T* – SOUND ADVICE….+6
§* – MOONLIGHTNAVIGATOR….+5
ROUSAYYAN….+1
§* – TWO FOR TWO….-4
HEIR TO A THRONE….-2
STIPULATE….-8
§* – COTE D’AZUR….-11
T* – REAVER….-13
* – HIDDEN REBEL….-20
T§* – CALVADOS SPIRIT….-20
H – GOD WILLING….-22
T§ – MUTARAKEZ….-26
DREAM WALKER….-31

NOTES: SOUND ADVICE has stats that has yer feet scrunching in the slippers! 3-15 ground, 8-37 trip and a superb 2-3 track. The problem today (for both Dalgleish runners), is the high draw they’ve copped for.

The horse’s trainer gets him ready for a couple of big handicaps each season and when he’s spot on, he travels like a Group horse and wins like a goodun.

The only other previous course winner in the field is BRIYOUNI (1-2), and he’s also 1-4 ground, 1-8 trip. Middle drawn isn’t the worst place to be here, especially as it looks like a good draw has been wasted on those that have it, bar WORLDS HIS OYSTER, who is 1-2 ground and 2-11 trip….never raced here before.

SPRING OFFENSIVE also comes from the middle and looks to have been laid out for this. He is a winner second time out in two of the last three seasons and had a pipe opener at Naas on soft/heavy ground on the 26th of March.

In 20 runs on turf have has won four, placed second and third three times apiece and is my solo play here….20/80.

I’ll dutch with WORLDS HIS OYSTER and BRIYOUNI and look at how the exotics might shape up, too.

5-25 – COLLECT TOTEPOOL WINNINGS AT BETFRED SHOPS HANDICAP (Class 4) (4yo+)Winner £6,469 9 runners 5f Good To Firm RUK

* – SEAMSTER….+11
* – ORIENT CLASS….-4
* – EXCESSABLE….-6
* – MUSHARRIF….-7
* – FRUIT SALAD….-13
* – PEA SHOOTER….-21
* – KIBAAR….-22
* – SINGEUR….-23
FIRST BOMBARDMENT….-40

NOTES: Not a great race to finish up our day. Right now my inclination is to swerve it but if I’m up on the day I’ll consider my top three to October Rules levels of staking.

DONCASTER

5-15 – BLACK AND VEATCH HANDICAP (Class 3) (4yo+) Winner £7,763 15 runners 6f Good To Firm ATR

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS: H-M-L

§* – THE COMMENTADORE….+10
* – FOOLARD….+8
§* – SYRIAN PEARL….+8
§*- TATLISU….+4
* – ART COLLECTION….+3
* – JAYWALKER….+2
* – MUNFALLET….+1
§ – HANDSOME DUDE….-14
* – RELATED….-15
* – KENNY THE CAPTAIN….-15
CLASSIC SENIORITY….-23
QEYAADAH….-23
§ – MY NAME IS RIO….-26
B FIFTY TWO….-31
BURNT SUGAR….-31

NOTES; The figures/icons pulled a big priced rabbit from the hat here at the least meeting and that’s how I find Doncaster. My figures don’t so much “struggle” here but finding winners is tough….when they arrive though, they tend to make up for what’s gone before.

We have three in here boasting three ticks:

TATLISU – 1-14 ground, 5-32 trip, 1-2 track
KENNY THE CAPTAIN – 1-4 ground, 8-38 trip, 1-4 track
FOOLAAD – 2-3 ground, 2-6 trip, 1-2 track

If i were working purely using ratings/stats then FOOLAAD should be the bet but I’m concerned about the draw that one has copped for. Low looks worst to me given how this will be run….my top rated has it all “right” and will be up there from the off.

TATLISU is one of those that seems to have been around for yonks but is actually only seven years of age. A previous CD winner his record on good to firm might suggest he’s better on something else. Just 12 runs on genuine good ground have yielded three wins and two placed efforts, whilst on good to firm he’s raced 15 times, winning just the once and placing on five occasions. He has a decent draw to work with this evening and looks set to run a good race.

SYRIAN PEARL is 0-2 here but the last time she raced at Donny (2014), she was beaten a nose. What would concern me more is her record first time up each season, form figures on the seasonal debut run reading 0, 4, 8, 8

ART COLLECTION and JAYWALKER make up my top six rated and the first named has arguably the worst draw in 1….but the yard is flying and won this race two years back.

JAYWALKER is middle drawn, again running for a yard in decent form (2-11 in the last 14 racing days), but has yet to race here.

I’m of a mind I will work with rated horse 1, 2 and 3….dutch, a 20/80 my top one, whose form figures on seasonal debut currently read 3, 3….and exotics.

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