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Today’s Lay Advice 12/05/17

I’ve gone through each race at Chester and in the opener I find a horse, EL HAYEM, outside my top six rated horses, trading extremely short @ 2.98

He is wholly unexposed compared to the rest of these and has been given a very handy draw to race from. However, I mentioned to Post Racing members recently that a good draw can prove as useful as a sleigh in Barbados if a horse misses the break and with 13 currently standing their ground here and this horse having missed the break on his last start in the Spring Cup at Newbury, he could find he needs divine intervention should he do the same here. 

That run was a cracker at Newbury but you can miss the break there and succeed. 

He drops in trip here, too but what he will need to do is break as quickly as several others in here, equally well drawn, that are “hard” in terms of racing.

He will be tough to beat but I will lay to my minimal exposure because if the gaps do come, he’s well capable of taking them.

1-50 – LAY EL HAYEM to minimal exposure.

A couple I believe can be beaten for reasons mentioned in my Preview on the website are:

US ARMY RANGER (3-35)
DOUBLE UP (4-35)

Given the form of the O’Brien yard this week and also given he’s officially 2lb better than MIDTERM it might be daft even considering laying the first named but I am considering it. He’s not drawn well for a start and even over trips like this, it’s important to be drawn correctly (the first two home in the Chester Cup over two miles two furlongs were drawn 2 & 3). I do not think I was alone in thinking he should not have won here the day he did….and that was his last visit to a winners enclosure. He has never raced on ground this quick either and with so many things in his minus column, I have to consider getting after him. Let’s call him a “provisional” right now.

DOUBLE UP has not won since 2015 and has been slowly away in the past. Drawn well he would not want to be doing that here. and I fancy previous course winner JUDICIAL to beat him anyway.

This is the horse’s first visit to Chester and it might well liven him up. He’s a good horse on his day but those days do not come around very often.

Again I’ll call him a “provisional” at this point.

I’ll be working on the evening racing this afternoon and report back later if anything looks a lay.

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