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Profiled Races 06/05/17

I’m swimming against the tide today following our needing to be away yesterday and my apologies for getting everything up a little late.

I’m going to introduce Profiled races as I go now so if you only see one, another will be going up soon.

NEWMARKET

2-20 – LONGHOLES PALACE HOUSE STAKES (GROUP 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) Winner £34,026 15 runners 5f Good To Firm ITV

Age grouping is not really a help here as there is not a lot between the four year olds and the older horses. Indeed, the older horses are slightly ahead by virtue of the fact SOLE POWER won this in 2013 and 2014.

I’m going to take the market as being very much a help as last years 20/1 winner was something of an enigma, the winner generally to be located in the front four on the tissue:

With last years winner having been withdrawn this morning (was trading favourite), the four I’ll go to first are:

PRICELESS
WASHINGTON DC
MARSHA
MUTHMIR

Six of the last 10 winners arrived here having won on the latest start and all four wear that badge so, next port of call would be draw.

Six of the last 10 winners were drawn six or higher and on the last three occasions this has been run on good to firm, the winners have come from 9, 6, 10….so if any of that quartet are lower than six I’ll take them out.

We lose MUTHMIR.

PRICELESS
WASHINGTON DC
MARSHA

Nothing has won this in the last 10 years carrying more than 9st 6lb and the penalty MARSHA carries for having won the Abbeye last season compromises her chance…she’s gone:

WASHINGTON DC
PRICELESS

A dutch that pair produces a profit so I’m going there but, looking for one to put up as the Profile selection, it’s PRICELESS.

This has been arrived at by virtue of the fact (and it’s being pedantic), that 1lb WASHINGTON DC carries above 9st 2lb would have seen him lose in five of the last six runnings

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: PRICELESS

THIRSK

3-40 – TOTEPOOL THIRSK HUNT CUP HANDICAP (Class 2) (4yo+) Winner £16,173 17 runners 1m Good To Firm RUK

Love races like this….for both Rating and Profiling.

I’m looking first for a horse aged 5+….seven of the last 10 went to older horses and I’m happy to take that as read:

DREAM WALKER
SOUND ADVICE
STIPULATE
SPRING OFFENSIVE
LAT HAWILL
GOD WILLING
MUTARAKEZ
MOONLIGHTNAVIGATOR
SILVERY MOON
ROUSAYAN
TWO FOR TWO
HIDDEN REBEL

Only two have carried less than 8st 7lb or more than 8st 13lb so I’m now culling anything above or below those weight ranges:

GOD WILLING
MUTARAKEZ
MOONLIGHTNAVIGATOR
SILVERY MOON
ROUSAYAN
TWO FOR TWO
HIDDEN REBEL

The winners of nine of the last 10 were located in the front five on the tissue:

ROUSAYAN
TWO FOR TWO

Down to a brace and if Profiling is right, it brings together David O’Meara and his former landlord turned trainer, Roger Fell.

That should be a conversation worth listening to if Roger’s wins!

I’ll dutch that pair as with that race above but we want just one for Profiling selection so, I’m going to run with David.

ROUSAYAN is the younger horse by three years and that might be significant, given the fact only one horse older than five has won in the last five years.

POST RACING PROFILING SELECTION: ROUSAYAN

That’s the lot for today!

Best of luck!

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