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Chester Cup Profiling 10/05/17

A request came through for a profiling of this race as in the past we’ve enjoyed some superb successes. So, here we go….

I’m not interested in the younger horses. Eight of the last 10 winners were five years old, or older.

Only the current favourite, BLAKENEY POINT, would be eliminated on the age issue. Well, as only one favourite has succeeded in the last 10 years, he’d have gone at some point anyway.

Weight range next.

None of the last 10 winners carried more than 9st 6lb.

Now I have my first shortlist:

MONTALY
MAGIC CIRCLE
SEA OF HEAVEN
DUKE OF CLARENCE
YORKIDDING
ANGEL GABRIAL
GOLDEN SPEAR
GOOD TRADITION
THE CASHEL MAN
WHO DARES WINS
SIR CHAUVELIN

Eight of the last 10 winners were to be found in the front six on the tissue:

SEA OF HEAVEN
GOLDEN SPEAR
THE CASHEL MAN
WHO DARES WINS

Down to four.

The only times a horse drawn in a double figure trap wins this is when the ground is riding slow. In the last five years, when the ground has ridden good, or good to firm, the winner has been drawn 2, 4, 4….when it’s been good to soft or slower 13, 11….so, applying that to those in that quartet we have:

SEA OF HEAVEN (14)
GOLDEN SPEAR (12)
THE CASHEL MAN (8)
WHO DARES WINS (7)

Down to two:

THE CASHEL MAN (8)
WHO DARES WINS (7)

I am happy to dutch that pair as they currently trade 6.4 and 11.

Looking for a definitive Profile selection then I’m going to pin my faith in WHO DARES WINS. He is a previous course winner coming from a yard that has enjoyed a couple of flat winners in the last few days. They have the cheekpieces back on today and you know this horse will be fit as a butchers dog, having not all that long ago finished third in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham.

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: WHO DARES WINS 20/80

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