Breaking News
Home / Gary Kelly / NH season 16/17 summary

NH season 16/17 summary

An overall summary in one document for main performance pointers across the categories. Again, for the 5th or 6th season now, it is clear that the sweet spot of the NH season is to the end Dec/1st week Jan approx, even this year when the weather was much less attritional than the past. The best way to put the handful of profit pockets in context is to quote the overall seasonal performance

Top Rated

102/758 -155.53pt loss betfair SP after 5%, -210.61 pts industry SP

0-9 24/223 -75.43
10-19 61/418 -30.16
20+ 3/23 -10.49
– rating 14/94 -37.82
natural progression 3/28 -10.72

hurdle 50/414 -132.98 (3y-o+ 9/780 -33.43pt loss, 4y-o+ 8/59 -27.32pt loss up to 31.12.16)

chase 52/344 -22.55 (win 28.64)

Cl4+ +10 to +19 49/340 -21.9 (win 28.64) hurdle 18/174 -72.77pt(3/35 3y-o+ hurdle -22.29pt, 1/30 4y-o+ hurdle -26.05pt to 31.1.16) chase 31/166 +50.87pt)

Cl2+ +10 to +19 9/77 -21.36pts 4/35 hurdle -11.15pt(0/2 3y-o+ hurdle, 0/11 4y-o+ hurdle to 31.12.16) 5/42 chase -10.21pt

All 24f+ 24/210 -32.09pt loss, H 6/81 -53.72pts, Ch 18/129 +21.63pts

All Cl5 21/150 -30.92pts, Hurdle 13/95 -24.42pt, Ch 8/55 -6.5pt

Previous blind top rated has made profit but loss this year, and previous seasons blind profit in hurdles not sustained but some chase profits

T factor
Sole T* 13/196 -120.27pts after 5% deduction
TH 8/84 -38.11
TH* 4/28 +2.93

Highest T* 28/322 -98.8
TH 10/88 -30.29
TH* 4/32 -0.77

high point w/e 15/1/17
TH* 4/18 +13.23

Top T 18/114 +5.46
T* 8/72 -2.06
TH 4/13 +5.98
TH* 2/7 +0.25

high point w/end 27/11/16

Top T 6/18 +22.66
T* 3/11 +20.5

Some minor profits, but nothing like 3 season’s ago

-40 system 30/421 -171.27 to betfair SP after 5%, -200.42pts industry SP

16f only (inc 15.5 and 16.5f) 11/151 -63.27pt, -62.75pts industry SP

sole play only 14/230 -105.0pts betfair SP

-40 bottom rated

58/666 -127.79 betfair SP after 5%, -211.41pts industry SP

chases 30/287 -1.3pts betfair SP after 5%. As previously noted, chases do quite well in bottom/bottom -40 and usually throw up big prices, so thanks Tour des Champs 87.4. 2015-16 had a couple, last season didn’t.

Season high -40 bottom rated chases 22/147 +75.67pt w/end 8/1/17

Cl5 chases 3/58 -47.04pts after 5%, chases 24f+ 7/108 +20.12pt (inc Tour des Champs 87.4)

Bottom rated

67/758 -161.89pts betfair SP after 5%, -258.35pts industry SP

bottom rated chases 35/344 -12.33pts betfair SP after 5%, -77.46pts industry SP.

Season high bottom rated chase 23/171 +57pt w/end 8/1/17

Bottom rated chases Cl5 3/60 -49.04pt, chases 24f+ 8/128 +9.41pt (inc tour des champs 87.4)

minor loss for full season but 3 years on bounce that reasonable profit can be made with bottom rated chase

Of Interest
47(63)/171, +4.53pts (+10.54pts as advised play) to betfair SP before 5% deduction
38/106 straight win only advised bets +25.79pts betfair SP before 5%

Season high point 30/74 +35.94pt before 5% 29/1/17

20 to Follow
15/43, -7.88pts loss betfair SP before 5% deduction

Race Profiling
6(13)/40 +1.37pts straight win betfair SP before 5% deduction (-8.83pts as advised play)
season high point w/e 20/11/16
2(3)/8 +14.4pts betfair SP before 5% deduction (+3.54pts as advised play)

Cheltenham only, advised single win or 20/80 play only (no dutches)

4(7)/23 -4.13pts loss to betfair SP to level stakes after 5% deduction win only bet (-10.75pts as advised play)

Outsider 25/1 at SP
4/154 -21.36pts betfair SP after 5% deduction, -50pts industry SP
Season high 3/47 +55.75pt 9/12/16

Very similar to recent flat performance in looking for first 4/5 weeks to deliver 25/1 wins from top 6 rated horses

Ron’s play
51/294 if played as straight win +33.26pts betfair SP after 5%
Season high point 9/36 +59.25 w/end 18/11/16

98/295 -13.98pt loss as advised play

Exotics
Tricast 2/384 £1302.38, £524.00 so -477.62pt.
Season high 1/63 +930.38 25/11/16

Disappointing after promising season start

CSF/exacta 19/471, £85.38/£72.20 £61.95/£112.40, £47.20/£68.20, £84.72/£80.80, £69.57/£65.90, £82.94/£119.50, £67.54/£77.80, £50.96/£45.00, £44.81/£49.00, £55.64/£53.40, £62.26/£77.60, £82.71/£101.70, £73.18/£82.30, £50.88/£61.20, £52.83/£30.30, £48.94/£49.50, £52.95/£55.20, £43.62/£59.40, £90.34/£91.10.

301/758 top 3 rated winners, -11.1pts to betfair SP but before 5% deduction but inc winner 151.65.

Season 15/16 summary

Top Rated

117/733 +34.41pts betfair SP, +8.07 after 5%, -65.1pts loss industry SP

High point 26/11/12 +29.56pts at betfair SP after 5% deduction. Stopping on 6th November would be +21.05pts after 5%

0-9 36/283 -68.73pt 16.59, 16.9
10-19 57/339 +49.29pts wins 17.98, 16.5, 27, 12.17, 20.7
20+ 1/12 -9.52pt
– 23/99 +36.74pts betfair SP after 5%, win 22

NP 7/29 +3.54pts loss to betfair SP

Chase 50/342 -23.66pts after 5%
Hurdle 67/391 +31.16pts after 5%,
4y-o+ hurdle high point w/e 27/12/15 18/63 +67.73pts after 5%

-40/bottom rated

-40 system 30/389 -136.62pts betfair SP -148.66pt after 5%, -174.92pt industry SP

14/150 16f only -35.99pts betfair SP, -41.94pts after 5%, -53.17pts industry SP

-40 61/621 -101.71pts betfair SP, -124.06pts after 5%, -179.37pts industry SP

33/265 chase +11.2pts betfair SP, -0.74pts after 5%, -41.12 industry SP

win 14, 27, 25. 12.58, 12.5, 13, 18.3, 14.7. High point 19/130 +24.68pts after 5% 10/1/16

bottom 83/733 -47.63pts betfair SP, -80.83pts after 5%, -156.54pts industry SP

chase 50/342 +45.19pts betfair SP, +20.65pts after 5%, -16.29pts industry SP

win 14, 27, 25, 12.58, 12.5, 16.2, 13, 18.3, 14.7. High point 26/171 +42.44 after 5% 10/1/16

Bottom rated chases in profit, even without genuine big price winners like in the past (and this clearly affects the -40 system disaster this season)

-40 bottom rated, by Class only Cl1 in profit 3/31 +18pts approx after 5%. By distance, 16f (or 15-16.5 now with re-measures) 16/150 +3pts approx, 23f 11/46 +45.5pts, 26f 2/18 +11.5pts, 28f 1/6 +4pts. No genuine micro system created

Bottom rated only Cl1 and 2 in profit 4/40 +20.5pts and 11/85 +9pts. Distance 16f, 20f, 23f 19/172 +22.5pts, 10/109 +31pts, 12/58 +35.5pts

Tiny profit 26 and 28f dwarved by losses of 24f and further, so looking for micro system of Cl1 and 2 bottom rated 16f only (given losses 17,18,21,22f) or Cl1 and 2 20-23f

Cl1&2 16f 5/30 +21.98pts after 5%, Cl1&2 20-23f 4/38 -10.67

T factor
Top T 14/117 +3.8pts
Top T* 10/67 +6.11pts
are the only two categories in profit, and disappointingly small to boot.

20 to Follow stats
16/45 +16.5pts profit to betfair SP before 5% from 18 of 20 qualifiers with 2 as yet unrecorded. 2 decent late season winners brought this to profit. It may be that larger priced should be played e/w or 20/80

Race Profiling
4(14)/35 -9.59pt loss betfair SP to straight win (+7.48pts as advised play) before 5% deduction

Cheltenham on its own 4(11)/24 +1.41pts as straight win before 5% deduction (+8.46pts as advised play)

Of interest
30(39)/127, -12.36pts loss to betfair SP as straight win (+1.54pts advised play) before 5% deduction

Season 14/15 Summary

T Factor stats
Top Rated with *&T symbols = 17/89 to profit +60.98pts Betfair SP, +53.97pts after 5% deduction

Winners @ 15.6, 20, 16.3, 21. NB many have rating 10+, and more Ch than H wins at decent price

Top 3 with *&T symbols, 31/213 +43.63pts to Betfair SP, +32.61pts after 5% deduction

Top 3 with T (on own or with * or H)

55/338 +63.9pts to Betfair SP, +45.51pts after 5% deduction

All horses with *&T symbols = 61/491 to profit +79.54pts Betfair SP, +52.89pts after 5% deduction

Winners @ 18.51, 23, 44, 31.8, 16.5, 20, 16.3, 25, 21, 24.63 plus a TH of 22.3

All horses with T symbol (on its own or with * or H)

115/1004 to loss -36.69pts Betfair SP, -80.17pts loss after 5% deduction

**NB these exclude 12/12/14 Cheltenham 3 rated races.

High point for all *&T categories (all, top 3, top rated) came in the w/e 28/12/14

All, 27/182 +103.5 and +90 after 5%, top 3 16/82 +73.79 and 66.81 after 5%, top rated 10/32 +69.53 and +64.58 after 5%

Top rated

Top Rated 128/782, +19.89pts profit to Betfair SP, -14.96pts loss at Betfair SP after 5% deduction

Winners @ 18.05, 18, 15.6, 20, 16.3, 28, 21, 16.2, 17

Top Rated with *&T symbols = 17/89 to profit +60.98pts Betfair SP, +53.97pts after 5% deduction

Winners @ 15.6, 20, 16.3, 21. NB many have rating 10+, and more Ch than H wins at decent price although general top rated better in hurdles and rated 0-9

Natural Progression 9/35 +24.4pts Betfair SP, +22.41pts after 5% deduction

0-9 rating 57/301 +56.47pts Betfair SP, +41.57pts after 5% deduction

10-19 rating 53/351 -4.31pts loss before 5% deduction, -18.56pts loss after 5% deduction

20+ rating 4/16 +4.41pts, +3.59pts after 5% deduction

– rated top rated 13/125, -24.09pts loss before 5% deduction

Hurdles

75/415, +96.69pts Betfair SP, +74.75pts after 5% deduction

3y-o+ 21/104, +32.31pts Betfair SP, +25.56pts after 5% deduction. NA as of 1/1/15

4y-o+ 34/209 +64.38pts Betfair SP, +49.19pts after 5% deduction

Difference of 0.8pt due to multiple roundup/down

Chases:

53/358, to a loss of -57.57pts, before 5% deduction

-40/bottom
Official -40 system, 35/299 +60.63pts to Betfair SP, +43.45pts after 5% deduction. All wins 3y-o+ hurdle to end of 2014. Jan 1st birthday for all horses changes this to season end.

wins @ 19, 19.9, 46, 20.44, 32.6

19/116 @ 16 or 16.5f, +70.07pts to Betfair SP, +61.7pts after 5% deduction

13/141, -11.7pts loss if changing system to single selection to standard Betfair SP before 5%

Bottom -40, 37/526, to a loss of -125.09pts to Betfair SP (5% deducted).

chases 10/193 loss of -48.16pts after 5%.

4y-o+ hurdle 3/38, -10pts loss to 31/12/14. (All hurdles 4y-o+ as of 1/1/15)

All bottom rated
, 73/793, to a loss of -4.27pts to Betfair SP (5% deducted) winner @ 65 Paddy the Oscar

chase 36/357 +100.18pt before 5%, +67.82pts after 5% (NB Petit Ecuyer @50 on 15/12/14, William Money @32 on 12/2/15, Paddy the Oscar @65 on 16/2/15)

wins @ 16.1, 24, 50, 32, 65, 29.74, 24.63. 18.45

4y-o+ hurdle 5/63 +1.45pt at Betfair SP, -1.58pt loss after 5% deduction to 31/12/14 (All hurdles 4y-o+ as of 1/1/15)

Ron’s play (as I interpret them!!!)
Season total- 70(136)/420 +37.83pts (+21.52pts as advised play) before 5% deductions

Of Interest
Season total- straight wins 50(64 win/pl as advised play)/190 to a profit of +11.98pts (-12.34pt loss as advised play), before 5% deductions.

Race Profling
Season total- 5(12)/46 loss of -8.54pts straight win bet (-6.33pts advised play) before 5% deduction

20 to follow

Season total- 10/61 runs to a loss of -19.62 pts (before 5% deduction)

About gary kelly

Check Also

Ron’s play stats updated w/e 19/11/17

4(10)/32 -11.93pts betfair SP after 5% (-9.25pts as advised play)

2 comments

  1. Thanks very much indeed for posting this up, Gary. I’ll be adding a review myself next week as it is a season we all we very much need to look back on in detail and set out our stall for the 2016-2017 season.

    I already know how we’ll be looking to work and it will be radically different to how we have done previously for the NH seasons before this.

    My favourite sport is changing, and not for the better.

    • NH for sure, and I’ve long been concerned how Cheltenham sucks the life out of the jumps game. But all the more reason to record and record to notice what works, and for how long, and when we need to adapt.

      That must be a good 5 or 6 years now we have been aware that end Dec or first week Jan is when certain stats hit their peak. One thing to sense it, another to prove it through performance

Leave a Reply