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Aintree Special Profiling – Day 3

We started off with a superb result today but then it got all impossible again I’m afraid.

Some used the list of five produced in that first race to cover multiple exotics and nailed the tricast and CSF’s so well played you guys and gals.

I took the exacta and the CSF, had a 20/80 on the winner and the dutch….got a few points bigger than SP, too so pretty pleased with that one.

I hope you visited the Preview section on the website as the 4/1 double indicated as a possibility came off, and the Rated races for the flat meeting at Leicester very much indicated we are looking forward to a superb summer as GALAPIAT, available at double figures odds and clear top rated, bolted in by five lengths.

Tomorrow’s Profiling below and it is not going to be easy. Again I’d advise fun punting only.

GASKELLS HANDICAP HURDLE (GRADE 3) (Class 1) (4yo+) Winner £39,389 22 runners3m149y Good

Looking at this from the age point it’s slightly funky. Of the last 10 winners five have been aged six, three have been aged eight….and this includes the last five winners being aged six or eight….seven year olds have been represented by 53 runners in the last 10 years but only seven have placed. Nothing so lucky about seven, then!

I’m going to work with what we know is “fact” and create a shortlist of six and eight year olds:

WHATAKNIGHT
BRIERY QUEEN
GOLDEN DOYEN
FOR GOOD MEASURE
NO COMMENT
MR MCGO
JOE FARRELL
FORTHEFUNOFIT

Eight of the last 10 years fell into the weight banding 10st 6lb and 11st 6lb so we lose any that fall either side:

BRIERY QUEEN
GOLDEN DOYEN
FOR GOOD MEASURE
NO COMMENT
MR MCGO
JOE FARRELL
FORTHEFUNOFIT

We lost just one.

Tissue next then. The winner was to be found in the front eight of the market in eight of the last 10 running’s and we’ll prune those trading seriously funky prices:

FOR GOOD MEASURE
NO COMMENT
JOE FARRELL
FORTHEFUNOFIT

Down to four.

Nine of the last 10 winners had arrived having won or placed on their latest outing and on that count, we lose a pair:

JOE FARRELL
FORTHEFUNOFIT

I’ll be dutching that pair but for that solo play I’ll selecting the horse that placed last time out, as opposed to winning.

The last five winners contained only one last time out winner and whilst it’s a short straw, it is a straw and I will hang on to it.

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: JOE FARRELL

BETWAY MERSEY NOVICES’ HURDLE (GRADE 1) (Class 1) (4yo+) Winner £56,130 13 runners 2m4f Good

Five and six year olds dominate this with eight of the last 10 winners but as all racing tomorrow are aged five and six, we ain’t got no shortlist!

They all carry the same weight so….still no shortlist.

All I can do with this one is turn to the market and knowing that the winner was in the first pair on the tissue we’ll cut to the chase:

FINIAN’S OSCAR
BRIO CONTI

The dutch will be played to make a profit but with the favourite having won five of the last seven of these, you’ll forgive me for suggesting that being my Profile selection.

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: FINIAN’S OSCAR

DOOM BAR MAGHULL NOVICES’ CHASE (GRADE 1) (Class 1) (5yo+) Winner £56,130 5 runners 1m7f176y Good To Soft

Five runner races are impossible to Profile. If CHARBEL is ok after his Cheltenham fall then he should win but I’d never be taking odds on about one like that.

I suggest we just watch.

BETWAY HANDICAP CHASE (LISTED RACE) (Class 1) (5yo+) Winner £39,389 18 runners3m210y Good To Soft

This is all over the place from an age grouping point of view. The last five winners have been aged 6, 8, 9, 10, 11 and the winner last season went off @ 50/1 so you play this race to pence and as a fun bet kind of race only.

With eight and nine year olds having won five of the last 10 and also having produced 10 placed horses between them from 79 runners in those 10 years, I’ll hang my hat on that peg because we have to start somewhere.

OUR KAEMPFER
KNOCK HOUSE
THOMAS BROWN
SIZING CODELCO
VALUE AT RISK
HENRI PARRY MORGAN
RELENTLESS DREAMER
RIGHTDOWNTHEMIDDLE
SMOOTH STEPPER
TAKINGRISKS

Eight of the last 10 winners carried less than 11st so, next shortlist:

SMOOTH STEPPER
TAKINGRISKS

Down to a pair.

I’d be happy dutching to buttons but with only three of the last 10 winners arriving having placed or won last time out, I can only pop this one up as a Profile selection.

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: SMOOTH STEPPER

RYANAIR STAYERS LIVERPOOL HURDLE (GRADE 1) (Class 1) (4yo+) Winner £84,195 11 runners 3m149y Good

This has a very weak look to it and the best way into this is via the tissue….or it has been to date.

I’m trying to Profile it working as usual but not finding that easy at all. Obviously all carry the same weight and all the fancied horses are aged seven, which would be the right marker in that respect.

The winner has never been out of the front three on the tissue in the last 10 years and the favourite has produced the goods on six occasions.

We’ll have a look at the trio fronting the market right now:

YANWORTH
COLE HARDEN
SUPASUNDAE

Will YANWORTH really improve as much as hoped for the step up in trip? Is three miles around a speed track like Aintree going to be enough of a test? For sure COLE HARDEN will love the drying ground but he’s just plain difficult to win with these days (not won anything since he won the World Hurdle in 2015), and in SUPASUNDAE we have a horse that has beaten both YANWORTH and THISTLECRACK in Bumpers.

The Jessica Harrington trained runner was impressive at Cheltenham whilst the other two were not.

I’m not going to offer up a Profile selection because I sense something funky is going to happen but I would expect SUPASUNDAE to hit the frame and at around 15/2, that’s a fair 20/80 bet.

RANDOX HEALTH GRAND NATIONAL HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE 3) (Class 1) (7yo+)Winner £561,300 40 runners 4m2f74y Good To Soft

Please, do not expect a miracle. If Profiling or anything else finds us the winner of this, I’ll be amazed.

With the changes to the track making it easier for young, inexperienced horses to complete and make the frame, it’s only a matter of time before another eight year old wins it. They had done nothing for years before MANY CLOUDS won it in 2015 and last year we saw the first seven home having 3 x 8 year olds, 2 x 9 year olds and a 7 year old in the first seven home.

But if I am profiling this as I usually do, I have to work with what is currently “fact”

The first fact is, I’m ruling out anything younger than nine because you take MANY CLOUDS out of the list of recent winners and the nine others having entered the winners spot were nine or older.

THE LAST SAMURI
MORE OF THAT
WONDERFUL CHARM
TENOR NIVERNAIS
DROP OUT JOE
CAUSE OF CAUSES
REGAL ENCORE
UCELLO CONTI
PLEASANT COMPANY
BALLYNAGOUR
O’FAOLAINS BOY
HIGHLAND LODGE
BISHOPS ROAD
LORD WINDERMERE
SAINT ARE
JUST A PAR
MEASUREOFMYDREAMS
RAZ DE MAREE
STELLAR NOTION
ROGUE ANGEL
COCKTAILS AT DAWN
THUNDER AND ROSES
GAS LINE BOY
GOODTOKNOW
DOCTOR HARPER

I’m going to prune out anything in that first list carrying more than 11st 6lb because again, only MANY CLOUDS has managed to do that.

MORE OF THAT
WONDERFUL CHARM
TENOR NIVERNAIS
DROP OUT JOE
CAUSE OF CAUSES
REGAL ENCORE
UCELLO CONTI
PLEASANT COMPANY
BALLYNAGOUR
O’FAOLAINS BOY
HIGHLAND LODGE
BISHOPS ROAD
LORD WINDERMERE
SAINT ARE
JUST A PAR
MEASUREOFMYDREAMS
RAZ DE MAREE
STELLAR NOTION
ROGUE ANGEL
COCKTAILS AT DAWN
THUNDER AND ROSES
GAS LINE BOY
GOODTOKNOW
DOCTOR HARPER

One gone.

I’m going to take out anything arrive here off the back of a win because only one of the last 10 winners managed to follow up here and with just four having placed before turning up for this, I’ll remove those, too. Also going is anything that failed to complete last time out because again, they too have failed miserably:

MORE OF THAT
UCELLO CONTI
LORD WINDERMERE
MEASUREOFMYDREAMS
ROGUE ANGEL
THUNDER AND ROSES
GAS LINE BOY
DOCTOR HARPER

We are now down to just eight but this is where this gets impossible.

The last five winners have been priced 33/1, 66/1, 25/1, 25/1, 33/1

MORE OF THAT
UCELLO CONTI
LORD WINDERMERE
MEASUREOFMYDREAMS
ROGUE ANGEL
THUNDER AND ROSES
GAS LINE BOY
DOCTOR HARPER

Anything above priced shorter than 25/1 but bigger than 33/1 is going:

ROGUE ANGEL
THUNDER AND ROSES

I’m down to a pair and how weird….both are trained by last seasons winning trainer!

Both are by PRESENTING, both are nine year olds, and I’ll play both to a few shillings e.w.

As for selecting one as a Profile horse, it’s down purely and simply to jockey bookings and Bryan Cooper has opted for ROGUE ANGEL….so will I.

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION: ROGUE ANGEL

PINSENT MASONS HANDICAP HURDLE (CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’ & AMATEUR RIDERS’ RACE) (Class 2) (4yo+) Winner £30,950 19 runners 2m103y Good

Are you genuinely interested in punting such a race? They should finish the meeting with the National and have done with it.

I actually only have seven previous running’s of this race to work with and all that really tells us right now is you are looking for a six year old carrying between 11st and 11st 6lb, that is located within the first five in the market and that punting the favourite 20/80 will lead to a payout….most likely.

The finishing position of the favourite to date has been: 1, 2, 6, 1, 4, 1, 3

Having a position in the front five on the tissue is very much a positive based on what we have right now so, using the criteria listed above the one most likely to succeed is CHESTERFIELD…..and he doesn’t satisfy all criteria as he’s a seven year old….one of the seven previous winners (2015), was from that age grouping.

Would I bet this race using this information? Not a cat in hells chance. I’ve finished playing once the National has concluded.

I hope you have enjoyed the three days Profiling and fancy joining us for Royal Ascot.

The Royal Ascot section will start filling up on the website from early May as juvenile clues aplenty will be coming through and the subscription link is now live on the website.

Thanks for getting involved

Kindest regards

Ron

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