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Aintree Special, Micro-Systems and punting for profit

I rated three races at Doncaster over the weekend and the figures/reviews are below.

What they indicate already is that using the micro-systems created by Gary Kelly is very much something everyone, including me, should be on top of.

If you are one of those still considering rejoining, or coming on board for the very first time, who are serious about punting for a profit, then you are going to find the following very interesting.

Check out the result/review of the Doncaster 1-45pm race yesterday:

1-45 – GET DONCASTER MOVING HANDICAP (Class 4) (4yo+) Winner £4,852 22 runners 7f Good To Soft

DRAW BIAS (M-L-H)

§* – FREE CODE….+19
KING OF NAPLES….+16
§* – DUBAI DYNAMO….+9
* – INVERMERE….+9 – 2ND 10/1
* – ZEALOUS….+9
§* – ROYAL CONNOISSEUR….+8
* – KHELMAN….-7
T – TIGER JIM….-12
§ – GAMBIT….-12
BALLYMORE CASTLE….-18
BOOTS AND SPURS….-20
FLORENZA….-21
§ – KALK BAY….-22
FINN CLASS….-28
§ – TIMELESS ART….-28
JOHNNY CAVAGIN….-34
§ – EASTERN DANCER….-35
H§ – DUTCH ART DEALER….-30
T§ – ZORAVAN….-36 – WON 28/1
BRILLIANT VANGUARD….-40
T – HARLEQUIN STRIKER….-40
MISTER MUSIC….-40

NOTES; I’m seeing that, potentially, middle is the best place to be drawn, low second best, high just lagging a tad. It’s not a huge bias by any means but I’ve applied what I have and come up with what you see.

It’s way to early to be suggesting that statistically one is horse likely to succeed than another for any of the criteria I apply (ground, trip, track), but ZEALOUS is 2-2 ground, 1-3 trip and 1-1 track so, in my top six rated I’d be looking at a big run from that one, if we were now working with tracing in May onwards.

We have three in my top six having draw/ground right but, taking DUBAI DYNAMO as a “for instance”, he’s 1-12 ground, same stat for trip and 0-5 track so, your immediate thought is, he’s having a pipe opener today. He ran in the Spring Mile last season and finished 13th of the 21 and if he is to win another race at the age of 12, it’s most likely going to be June/July or August before he’s tuned up for that to happen.

I’d suggest the good draw has been wasted on both him and ROYAL CONNOISSEUR as that one also wins elsewhere….0-6 here.

INVERMERE is the interesting one. The 1-1 ground, 1-3 trip stats allied to a decent plus figure bode well for a 4-y-o who is most likely going to improve and with a high end of low draw to operate from, and a stable already showing it is in form, she has to go close, you would imagine.

KING OF NAPLES is going to be well fancied, too. First run on good to soft those 1-1 track and 2-7 trip stats suggest Fanshawe hasn’t simply sent it up for a day out. That 19 draw might be tough to overcome though.

I’m simply very much looking forward to seeing how these three races pan out with an eye on may onwards.

REVIEWOne of the reasons Gary’s micro-systems will be worth keeping a very close eye on this season is found here. We had just one runner attracting the T§ icons and it duly obliged @ 28/1. If you had played that system last season for the five months of the season, you would have made a small loss of 7.79 points after your 5% deductions but in the season 2015 playing that system produced a profit of 87.5 points, again after your 5% deductions.

It was impossible for me to rate that winner accurately because this was it’s first ever run on turf and only it’s eighth run in it’s life.

I was though, very pleased to see the one I found “interesting” run a cracker to be second @ 10/1 and it augurs well, don’t you agree?

3-20 – ROSINA MAY GODFREY MEMORIAL HANDICAP (Class 3) (4yo+) Winner £7,763 22 runners 6f Good To Soft

DRAW BIAS (H – M/L)

§* – MUNTADAB….+13 – 2ND 8/1 > 13/2
T* – LINCOLN….+9
* – ECCLESTON….+8
T§* – GUNMETAL….+8
* – HANDSOME DUDE….+8
§* – KENNY THE CAPTAIN….+3
GEORGE BOWEN….±0
§* – MY NAME IS RIO….±0
T* – SIR BILLY WRIGHT….-4
* – NAGGERS….-8
T* – GOLDEN AMBER….-10
INTENSE STYLE….-12
§ – MY AMIGO….-14
FLYING PURSUIT….-20
NINJAGO….-24
§ – ANOTHER WISE KID….-30
BOGART….-31
TOOFI….-33
T – OWER FLY….-37
WENTWORTH FALLS….-38 – WON 33/1
§ – LAGENDA….-39
NORTHGATE LAD….-40

NOTES: I looked through this field and saw a host of names that you know, at some point, will win their race. Horses like ANOTHER WISE KID, NINJAGO, TOOFI and NORTHGATE LAD, who did well at three, found it difficult at four but might now have improved, have been handicapped to win again because of that poor season last year. These are all reasons why I very rarely bet in April.

I’d have to be absolutely sure I “knew” before parting with a penny this month and we will find several of those, i’m sure, in the next four weeks.

Last season was the first ECCLESTON had not visited the winners enclosure but today….who knows? Trainer already in form, course winner, distance winner, 1-10 on good to soft….has won on seasonal debut (twice), so you know this one is “capable”.

I have my very first T§* horse of the season here, too. GUNMETAL would appear to have everything spot on….very lightly raced, too so to have got a +8 figure off the back of just eight runs tells me something.

Described as a fine big horse whose recent work has been decent, in Charlie Hill’s stable tour recently, he’d be in a dutch at the very least.

My top rated is unbeaten here and is trained by David O’Meara’s former landlord. If stats/ratings meant anything right now this would be my solo play for sure….1-4 ground, 1-2 trip and 2-2 track….impressive.

Again, a race I’m really looking forward to watching but, watching is all I’ll do right now.

REVIEWI thought for a second my top rated had this won but he failed by just half a length to last home. Again though we saw another very lightly raced horse, having just a fifth race on turf, going in at a huge price.

But this is why I watch only at this time of year. Not just because I know the winners will be like those needles in haystacks but to watch horses like NORTHGATE LAD, who I made mention of as being potentially well handicapped now, run a cracker. He finished sixth but was beaten just over a length @ 50/1….duly noted!

We really will learn a lot going forward from these races.

4-30 – CHOOSE FITNESS HANDICAP (Class 4) (4yo+) Winner £4,852 20 runners 1m2f60y Good To Soft

DRAW BIAS (L-M-H)

§* – CARNAGEO….+10
HAIL CLODIUS….+8 – 2ND
* – NAVAJO WAR DANCE….+8 – 3RD
* – CHANCERY….+3 – 4TH

§* – SAVE THE BEES….+3
* – MYSTERIAL….-9
* – HANSEATIC….-10
* – TAMAYUZ MAGIC….-10
§ – SUITOR….-11
* – LIME AND LEMON….-15
§ – MARMION….-17
* – TOP OF THE GLAS….-18
BRIARDALE….-19
ANOTHER GO….-20
§ – SIKANDER….-25
BUONARROTI….-30
§ – ESTEAMING….-30
FORESEE….-40
PALMERSTON….-40
§ – ARCHIPPOS….-40 – WON 20/1

NOTES: I’m so very nearly tempted in here….and might yet be. My top rated looks rock solid and his trainer has won three of the last five runnings of this.

The potential decent draw looks to have been wasted on a few down my figures

Fact is though, none of this has been lost on the market and he’s already trading favourite.

LEMON AND LIME is guaranteed to improve this season. Lightly raced, moved to Clive Cox from Philip McBride late last season and ran two very good end of season races, he too must go well if fit enough first time out.

If you are punting just keep it simple and to low staking because for sure, plenty of these will be leaving cobwebs all over the track this afternoon and will strip much fitter next time out.

REVIEWAnother winner simply impossible to rate accurately simply because he had raced just four times previously. Horses are not fully developed until they are five years old (they don’t even have all of their teeth until then!), and it’s why I never work on all three year old handicaps.

When you add facts like those into the equation that already include imponderables like “are they fit enough first time out”, you get three results like those yesterday.

You have to say the figures were pretty darned smokey though, don’t you! The 2nd, 3rd and 4th placed horses sitting right there and by the same token you must feel (I do), that CARNAGEO is perhaps not as good as they thought because he was fancied, running for a yard that gets them ready first time but couldn’t quicken when asked to do so.

It could have been the fact the ground dried up and the good to soft had disappeared so I’ll look for him again when they have a bit of juice in the ground but hopefully he doesn’t get it this summer. If we get a clear run at this, proper flat racing conditions, we are going to clean up.

PUNTING FOR PROFIT

It’s not something that will happen overnight. If you are a punter who wants instant satisfaction, forget betting at all. It will never happen and if someone tells you it will, they are after your money and nothing else.

To win at betting requires patience, resilience and a steely nerve.

Imagine you had £5000 to invest and you wanted to see it grow by a reasonable amount, over a 10 year period. You go to see a Financial advisor and tell him what you are after. He’ll charge a fee for/her expertise and provide you with a few options, the risk for a better return in 10 years greater than that you’ll get for a less risky type of investment.

Punting on horse racing is definitely the higher risk but if you work with the right people and take their advice, you’ll hopefully have your £5k plus a profit in 10 years time.

This brings me back to micro-systems.

You will see in the review added to that first race that I cover one of the micro-systems Gary has produced and that it indicates a profit one year, a loss the next.

That is exactly what can happen to the “safe” investments offered by a Financial advisor. The only difference is, each day you will play your “bets” and not an employee of a firm trading your money in stocks and shares to produce that 10 year profit.

What that employee has is a brief. he is only permitted to use a certain percentage of your money to “bet” with each day and he’ll win, or he will lose…stocks go up, as well as down.

What you are hoping is that on four of those 10 years he gets it right and the six in which he doesn’t see your money go up in smoke.

In 10 years time you’ll receive a deposit to your bank from the company you entrusted your money to. With punting, if we make a profit annually, you can take it and simply retain your bank.

GUARANTEES

No such thing. Every organisation that looks to make you a profit from the capital you give them to work with, be it stocks, buying gold, diamonds, or simply putting it in an ISA, will guarantee you nothing. Quite the opposite, most will have a disclaimer telling you quite clearly that your investment can go down, as well as up.

What you can now do with the micro-systems is monitor what is working, what isn’t and move your money accordingly. Or, you can simply say, “I’m going to simply work with the flat racing T§ micro-system for the next 10 years and see how I get along”.

After two flat racing seasons 2015, 2016, you are just shy of being a clear 80 points in profit.

What will happen in 2017? I have absolutely no idea. If I did you would not be reading this because Gary and I would be moving our families to somewhere nice and hot, working by the pool and having a few bets per week to make our profit….or our loss.

I have had members unsubscribe after a couple of months because they suggest they have not made a profit. I have always e-mailed them to say they’ve hardly had time to know whether or not they are profitable because how could they have done? Eight weeks is but a spit in the bucket of a punting period and if you are one of those that expect, or need, to be in profit tomorrow and every day, forget it and my apologies for bothering you.

THE AINTREE SPECIAL

On Wednesday evening the first of the Aintree Specials will go out. The idea is to make a profit over those three days and one of two things will happen.

We will, or we will not. What you will have is the ammunition to help you make informed choices and give yourself more chance of making that profit than if you simply open a paper, look at a racecard and put your faith in one that has won for you before, or that has the most appealing form figures, or is ridden by Ruby Walsh or Richard Johnson.

I make my living from betting on horses, not from the subscriptions from my membership. I have to get it right enough times to make it pay and I do but I work in exactly the way described above. I’m not interested in how I do this afternoon, next week or in three months time. I’ll sit down on October 1st each year and decide whether or not it’s been a good year, or a bad one and if it has been a bad one, I look to see how things might have been done differently to make a profit and introduce adjustments as required, then tell my membership what we need to be doing.

If you are a recreational punter then you will still find plenty to work with but the advice obviously has to be, never bet with money you cannot afford to lose. Work with the figures and advice, have some fun and enjoy a few nice payouts through the season.

The Weekend Club is most certainly an option those who only fancy a punt of a Saturday/Sunday should consider. It’s the best £2.50 you’ll spend each week and whilst you get no whistles and bells attached to that package, it’ll be informative and certainly help with your betting selections.

To get involved in whatever capacity simply visit the website and select a package that appeals to you.

If you have any question, please do get back to me.

Kindest regards

Ron

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