With the loss of Thistlecrack, we lost my lay of the week. I simply could not see him winning a Gold Cup and I was not in the least bit surprised to see him get beaten by the sadly ill-fated Many Clouds.
His jumping was never clean enough for me and something was always going to happen eventually.
We do not need to go looking for ghosts here. The top class horses will rise to the occasion and I’m very confident profiling will sort this out but for now, we do not need to look outside the top five on the current tissue:
One of those five will win the Gold Cup unless something on the scale of an alien landing takes place at Prestbury Park, on the day.
Putting the favourite at the off in your Placepot is banker material, as only one of the last 10 has failed to finish in the first three and in that same period of time you’ve had a 50% success rate simply putting FAV on your betting slip.
A £10 level stake over the last 10 years, on the favourite, has returned £164.
The top class staying races are the races you can trust in this regard but those shorter races like the QM and Champion Hurdle, you leave the favourites alone.
The favourites in the Stayers Hurdle also show a 50% strike rate over the last 10 year period but they tend to go off a fair bit shorter and you’ve lost 50p playing those last 10 favourites to a level £10 stake.
I still wish Thistlecrack was here though because he’d have been a losing favourite, I’m sure!