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Today’s Ratings and Advice 07/10/16

Ron RobinsonI thought the racing from Hereford yesterday was superb. Huge crowds, reports that you could not get a hotel room within a 20 mile radius, long Aintree style queues to get in, people were leaving their cars on the roadside and walking the rest of their journey and, they came close to running out of race cards.

Will they get the support of trainers and spectators alike next time?

I hope so because my figures there worked fine, the top rated finished 4th 9/4, 2nd 6/1 and 1st 3/1. Even the Exeter figures produce the goods, a top rated winner 11/4 > 13/8 and that other one coming home 3rd @ 16/1.

In that race in which my top rated, FORT WORTH ran home second @ 6/1 (he chucked it in big time!), I had written this in the preview section of the website:

“One you must have a good look at is BELMOUNT in the 4-15. The Twiston-Davies yard pull up trees here and whilst this is the best race of the day being run anywhere, he’s very much one I also feel will run a big race for a yard that was 2-4 with runners here when Sam and Nigel joined forces, and stats last mattered.” – WON 7/2 > 5/2 and was apparently available at around 6/1 in the morning.

I understand several members have had problems accessing the Preview section and I’ll look into this today. I have checked membership permissions and all seems fine so I’m scratching my head regarding this and may have to refer it to someone that has a bit more time than I do, to work out what might be the problem.

What I will do whilst getting this sorted out is send the Preview out in a second newsletter.

Last night someone e-mailed me asking if I would provide them with something for Newmarket. They are not currently members but made a nice donation to the Sensory Garden pot so I’ll be profiling several from there for him….and I will also include that lot in that second Newsletter.

Then I have to head off to Clatterbridge Hospital for the final meeting before work commences on said garden.

What I have done, to relieve the pot of cash we have created of the burden of paying for a couple of the larger items, is purchase both the water feature, and all the bits and bobs that go with that, plus the tree seat that will go around the Tibetan Cherry tree in the centre of the lawned area.

I will have some kind of plaque in place that indicates Post Racing members were responsible for the creation of this amazing new space….because you were!

20 TO FOLLOW

I made a decision last night whilst watching old episodes of Red Dwarf with my grandkids.

I’m going to take a few days off rating races….yeah, right….from the 17th-20th inclusive and concentrate my efforts on getting all 20 up on the website, with a full explanation as to why I believe we’ll make a profit punting them. You already know the name of one, NO COMMENT, and he will win races for us.

On the 21st and 22nd we have Cheltenham and it would be sacrilegious of me to not sort that meeting out!

TODAY

Newton Abbot provides us with three rated races. I’m happy with my figures for all three and will work with them and the Preview of those remaining….everything is going so well right now I would be a fool not to do something with them.

As promised, the Newmarket Profiling and Preview will be posted out to you as soon as they are finalised and I’ll get to the bottom of the problem regarding why some can, and some cannot, see the Previews.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Newton Abbot / Fri 07 Oct
First Race: 1:55 pm Going/Track Good, Good to Soft in places (GoingStick: 6.8 on Thursday at 06:00)
Updated @ 6:30am, Thu 06 Oct

Rails: Hurdle bends moved out 6 yards, Chase bends by 5 yards from baseline position, effecting distances as follows: Race 1 adds approx. 61 yards Race 2 adds approx. 42 yards Race 3 & 6 adds approx. 70 yards Race 4 adds approx. 56 yards Race 5 adds approx. 87 yards Race 7 adds approx. 52 yards
Updated @ 2:34pm, Wed 05 Oct

Watering: Watered Tuesday between 10mm and 5mm entire course. Watering to maintain ground today.
Updated @ 6:30am, Thu 06 Oct

Weather 6mm rain Fri, 1mm Sat. Cloudy, breezy, cooler and dry 13-14C today. Similar tomorrow with chance of a light shower tomorrow morning.
Updated @ 6:30am, Thu 06 Oct

ICONS

* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

3-00 – WEATHERBYS & PAUL FERGUSON JUMPERS TO FOLLOW HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 2) (4yo+) Winner £17,517 10 runners 3m2f105y Good

* – ALZAMMAAR….+12
* – MILAN BOUND….+12
* – ALCALA….+11
* – THE ROMFORD PELE….+11
* – GOODBYE DANCER….+10
* – LISTEN AND LEARN….+9
T* – YOUNG DILLON….+8
* – LUCCOMBE DOWN….-1
UNCLE JIMMY….-3
VALHALLA….-38

NOTES: My top rated is 1-4 ground, 0-0 trip, 0-0 track and recently ran like a car on flat tyres in a Class 5 handicap at Salisbury but is a different beast with obstacles in the way. He has raced 12 times over hurdles winning three, finished 2nd twice and run home third in six. Consistent he is!

MILAN BOUND 1-1 track, 1-1 trip and 2-5 ground (won this race last year). Barry Geraghty is here for one ride and at the current odds, in what is an absolutely superb race, is my 20/80.

He is the only runner with the “three ticks” but several here are still waving like crazy. GOODBYE DANCER….3-9 ground, 1-1 track, never raced over this trip. THE ROMFORD PELE….3-9 ground, 1-3 trip….never raced here before.

YOUNG DILLON…T* icons….3-5 ground, 1-1 trip….never seen this place previously.

Then we have ALCALA, running for the Nicholls yard, who are already firing in the winners. Currently 0-1 ground, 0-0 trip and 0-0 track. Won on seasonal debut last year the last two seasons.

My play is simple.

Top three to a dutch if I can make it work, a 20/80 MILAN BOUND and exotics.

Those Group races at Newmarket seem insignificant compared to this!

4-05 – HAPPY 70TH BIRTHDAY PAT LOVE FROM DEL MARES´ HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-115) Winner £4,549 7 runners 2m5f122y Good

* – AT FIRST LIGHT….+14
* – MAGIC MONEY….+9
* – MIDNIGHT SAPPHIRE….+1
* – POPPING ALONG….-7
H – ON DEMAND….-11
HIJA….-40
PREMIER ROSE….-40

NOTES: My figures suggest the winner is in my top pair and the market agrees. So does Timeform…if I’m wrong, everyone is wrong!

I’m happy to trust my figures as stats make them more or less the same horse so it’s a dutch, a straight win AT FIRST LIGHT and an exotic.

4-40 – ATTHERACES IN APP BETTING HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-110) Winner £4,874 6 runners 3m1f170y Good

* – LOUIS PHILLIPE….+15
MRSROBIN….+10
* – MOORLANDS GEORGE….-2
QUEEN’S BAY….-33
OSCAR FIAIN….-40
BENNY’S GIRL….-40

NOTES: My top rated is right at home here….2-10 ground, 1-1 trip and 3-5 track…if stats win races, this one wins.

The only other runner currently a winner on the ground as currently described is 0-6 trip and 0-3 track. The rest have tried no fewer than 22 times to win on good ground…failed.

The only other runner in here a winner over this trip, MRSROBIN, is also 1-1 track….but 0-4 ground.

If the winner is outside my top three I’m going to look pretty stoopid and if it’s not my top one, I’ll be a few quid light, too.

Have a great day

Ron

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