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The Weekend Review 29/30 October

Ron RobinsonAs you know, October is usually the month I take a two week holiday, put my feet up and clear my head in readiness for the winter’s racing ahead.

This year has been different. I knew from mid-summer that the figures would be trustworthy and they have been.

I now want to start changing a few things regarding how the information is presented to you. Less waffle in the Newsletters…just the information you require to aid your betting and help you make a profit from the game.

The website has been under used….especially given the amount of money it costs to keep it on the internet!

Today is the first time I’ve posted up a full weekend review and I’ll be going through each rated race, the OF INTEREST selections and discussing the Preview, which is elsewhere on the website.

SATURDAY 29/10/16

ASCOT

2-25 – BYRNE GROUP HANDICAP CHASE (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (4yo+ 0-150) Winner £34,170 12 runners 2m192y Good

* – CROCO BAY….+9 – PU
* – ULCK DU LIN….+9 – 11TH
* – FESTIVE AFFAIR….-8 – 3RD 12/1
YORKIST….-17 – 6TH 5/2
* – NOCHE DE REYES….-17 – 2ND 7/1
* – ROMAN FLIGHT….-18 – 4TH 14/1

H* – GERMANY CALLING….-19
* – QUITE BY CHANCE….-21 – WON 10/1 > 8/1
* – MISS TENACIOUS….-35
* – LORD BEN….-35
PEARLS LEGEND….-38
ALL TOGETHER….-40

NOTES: The racing here this afternoon is just superb. I hate wishing my time away (especially at my age!), but roll on kick off, I say!

My top rated is 1-1 here, has a 3-11 ground stat to add to the 3-17 trip. Three ticks. Form figures second time up in each of the last four seasons read: 1, 3, 6, 1 and last weekend was in the process of running a cracker in the race won by FOX NORTON. He went off 33/1 and had just moved into third when he unseated Daryl Jacob two out. I expect him to again run well.

ULCK DU LIN won this in 2014 and is 2-7 at Ascot. His form figures here actually read: 1, 9, 5, 1, 8, 2, PU, and whilst winning seems difficult for him this is his time of year, five of his last six wins coming during the months of September and December. When he won this race in 2014 it was actually run on November 1st. Paul Nicholls is operating at a 45% strike rate at the moment (14-31) and I have no problem having this horse in my dutch.

FESTIVE AFFAIR has a poor wins to runs ratio….just 2-18 to date. His win in April this year was his first since 2014 and whilst he has a high rating, a decent enough 1-4 ground and 2-9 trip record, I couldn’t punt him for win purposes.

YORKIST has moved to Dan Skelton’s yard and he’s a very good horse on his day, under the right conditions. The ground today is wrong…he’s 0-7 on it. His last five wins have been on heavy three times, soft the last twice. It’s going to be very quick underfoot today. His last three runs in double figure fields have produced form figures reading: 6, 9, 6 and whilst he did win a 10 runner affair in 2013 that was over hurdles around Catterick, on soft ground. His profile is that of a horse that likes no more than a handful of runners to take on…but he’s now with a trainer that can get into a horses head. We’ll see if Dan can work a miracle…but I won’t be on if he does.

I’ll play my top three to a dutch, exotics and a 20/80 CROCO BAY.

RESULT – My top rated has simply lost its confidence and jumped appallingly. ULCK DU LIN looks to have lost the plot completely. I didn’t expect it to win but neither would I have expected it to be tailed off last, either.

My text explained that YORKIST wouldn’t be winning and I was very pleased to see the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th in my top six rated horses. Whilst this was a losing race for me I am looking forward to working with these races over the next five months.

3-00 – WILLIAM HILL HANDICAP HURDLE (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £34,170 12 runners 1m7f152y Good

* – HINT OF MINT….+12
* – STERNRUBIN….+9 – WON 12/1
* – DIEGO DU CHARMIL….+6
FERGALL….-15 – 4TH 14/1
* – MODUS….-17 – 3RD 6/1

* – MINELLAFORLEISURE….-18
T* – MYMANEKINEKO….-19
CH’TIBELLO….-20
* – INSTANT KARMA….-20
* – CLOONACOOL….-35
T* – COLLA PIER….-35
JOHN CONSTABLE….-40

NOTES: If Harry Fry has worked his magic on my top rated then he wins this. I knew last night this horse would top my figures today and his form is there for all to see.

In October 2014 he ran THE NEW ONE to just over two lengths. In November of that year he then chased home FAUGHEEN in the Ascot Hurdle, beaten 13 1/2 lengths.

That day he was receiving 4lb from that superstar and today he receive a stone from the favourite, a horse that would have only been rated 2lb better than him back then.

He has won or placed in 50% of his 12 career runs to date and whilst he has that absence to overcome, I’m quite sure Harry will have him fit and ready to roll. I’m already on, 20/80.

The current favourite is CH’TIBELLO and those dogs they often speak of have been barking this ones name for a good while now. With just six runs in the book I cannot rate him any higher than I have him but he’s yet to finish out of the first three in all six. The Skelton yard are slowly cranking it up now and three of their last nine runners, in the last six racing days, have won, another two have come home second and third.

STERNRUBIN beat him nine lengths over this track in November last year but is 7lb worse off today. I would have expected that horse to have improved again too and it’s all adding up to a cracker.

They will all have to go some though, to beat DIEGO DU CHARMIL, who is 2-2 on the ground as currently described, 2-3 over the trip and yet to race here. They are considering the Greatwood for him so we might be taking him on with MEET THE LEGEND at Cheltenham, where this horse is 1-1.

All things considered I have to trust my figures and look to dutch my top three. I already have a 20/80 HINT OF MINT in place but with trip/ground perfect for the Nicholls runner, I might see if I can play another!

RESULT – My top rated simply ran to free on his first run in a long time and you could have laid that after the first hurdle had been jumped. Very pleased to see my second highest rated winning and landing me a profit from my dutch and again, with three of the first four home in my top five rated horses we have much to look forward to this season.

3-35 – SODEXO GOLD CUP HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £56,950 12 runners 2m7f180y Good

UN ACE….+9
* – SAPHIR DU RHEU….+8 – 3RD 9/4
* – VOIX D’EAU….+8
* – WORKBENCH….-2
* – ANTONY….-7 – WON 11/1
* – BUCKTHORN TIMOTHY….-12
* – A GOOD SKIN….-17
HADRIAN’S APPROACH….-19
* – JUNCTION FOURTEEN….-21
* – KILLALA QUAY….-34
* – TEA FOR TWO….-35
FOURTH ACT….-40

NOTES: Last time I was not very complimentary about the jumping of VOIX D’EAU and when it came under pressure, the horse missed the last three, which cost him the race. Over this longer trip he might find the jumping not so much of an issue but to be 100% honest with you, if SAPHIR DU RHEU has been tuned up for this, he wins pulling a cart.

This horse was considered a potential superstar when he first arrived at Ditcheat but the wheels keep falling off! This horse went off favourite to beat CONEYGREE in the Reynoldstown, beat THE YOUNG MASTER as if that good horse was standing still before then disappointing in the Hennessy when only fifth to SMAD PLACE.

He went off favourite that day and was rated nearly a stone higher than he is today. Plain fact is, he’s the best horse in this race. He might well be one of those horses you have to catch first time up and if that’s the case, today is the day.

UN ACE is 1-1 here but 0-5 ground and 0-2 trip. I think he’s a serious horse and have done since I saw him winning his Bumper but I’m just concerned he may need a bit of juice in the ground. His last four wins have all come on good to soft and again I’m thinking a double figure field might not be to his liking….his last three wins in fields of 5, 4, 7….that last one here over CD in March last year.

I’m going to run with my top three and have a straight win SAPHIR DU RHEU.

I hope the guys involved in VOIX D’EAU pull it off though!….good luck, Jamie!!

RESULT – We knew before the off my top rated would not be winning and he duly finished last of the 11 that completed. He had so much against him here.

The winner and third placed horses were again in my top five rated and at this point in the season I have to be delighted with how the figures are performing in the “classier” handicaps.

SAPHIR DU RHEU is clearly not going to be the horse they hoped he would be….Gold Cups were being spoken of after he beat THE YOUNG MASTER last season and it could be the attempt to win the Hennessy of a huge weight has cost them dearly. Shame if that’s true.

AYR

2-35 – TENNENT´S BLACK T HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-120) Winner £3,899 12 runners 2m5f91y Good

T – MANGO CAP….+14 – 3RD 7/2
CUIL ROGUE….-4 – 5TH 11/1
* – JET MASTER….-7 – 2ND 8/1
* – GREEN ZONE….-11 – 6TH 12/1
* – FRED LE MACON….-16 – WON 12/1
MALIN BAY….-24 – FELL

T – WELCOME BEN….-34
LOCHNELL….-35
PRESENTING ROSE….-35
* – COOKING FAT….-40
T – CAPTAIN CLAYTON….-40
T – BANK MAN….-40

NOTES: The racing up here is nothing remotely as competitive as those other tracks and here all stats tell you is that whilst not quite useless, they are inconsistent beasts at best. Nothing has won more than once on the ground we have, nothing has won more than once over the trip and only LOCHNELL….2-9, has winning track form.

I’m just going to play my figures to October Rules.

RESULT – The top six rated would have been the first six home but for the fall two out of MALIN BAY, who was in second place when going base over apex.

I should have been dutching the three having the * icon and had I done so would have enjoyed a winning dutch, a 104/1 CSF and an Exacta paying £64….I have duly given myself a seriously good kicking.

3-10 – MENABREA HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-110) Winner £3,769 8 runners 1m7f112y Good

WILLE HALL….+10
* – PEKANHEIM….+3 – 3RD 4/1
* – QUITO DU TRESOR….-12 – NR

MUMGOS DEBUT….-17
T – HALCYON DAYS….-26 – WON 10/3
* – TOLEDO GOLD….-26
* – BARABOY….-27
T – SUPREME ASSET….-38 – 2ND 9/4

NOTES: My top rated is 2-4 both trip/track but….0-6 ground and I cannot have him, now trying to improve on that stat at the age of 12. He is the only previous course winner in the field, the rest 0-10 between them.

They are again simply what they are and if my numbers are wrong I’m going to lose a few shekels here.

I’m going to play my October Rules rated horses 2, 3 and 6….PEKANHEIM getting the 20/80.

RESULT – With QUITO DU TRESOR taken out I just opted to work with PEKANHEIM 20/80 and, of course, he finished 3rd in a seven runner race. Not lost on me that the first and second home were both carrying the T icon….we will make money from that this season.

3-45 – MAGNERS HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-140) Winner £8,447 7 runners 1m7f112y Good

* – TRUST THOMAS….+21 – 2ND 14/1
T* – IMPULSIVE AMERICAN….+17 – 3RD 3/1

LOUGH KENT….-12
T – SPECIAL CATCH….-19 – WON 9/4
* – TOP WOOD….-26
T – VERCINGETORIX….-26
INDIAN VOYAGE….-40

NOTES: My top pair boast three ticks but my only play here is a straight win IMPULSIVE AMERICAN….2-7 ground, 1-8 trip and 1-1 track. I will consider a top pair exotic but the bottom four on my numbers are collectively 0-24 on this ground and most likely require divine intervention.

RESULT – A good kicking was taken here…..I not only punted a loser but I laid the winner. That’ll happen a good few times through the year but as long as I get enough right to cover those losses and make a profit, I just accept it.

4-20 – HEVERLEE HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-140) Winner £8,447 6 runners 2m4f110y Good

* – PRESENTING JUNIOR….+8
T* – THROTHEHATCH….-2
FINAL ASSAULT….-12
T* – AMILLIONTIMES….-27
T* – MISTER FIRST….-35
* – INDIAN TEMPLE….-35 – WON 12/1

NOTES: Statistically and Ratings wise, my top rated looks the part. Those 5-18 ground, 4-14 trip and 4-7 track stats look superb compared to everything else in here.

THROTHEHATCH is 0-4 here and only 1-6 at the trip. FINAL ASSAULT likes this track….2-8….but that 0-7 ground stat is off putting.

I’d say the winner is in my top two and work my own play around them….more inclined right now to a 20/80 my top one than a straight win THROTHEHATCH, who trades short.

RESULT – Reading my text back to myself I was pointing out more the case for certain horses not winning than anything else and those words were accurate. The 20/80 I played went west but not a lot was punted. It’s just one of those unfathomable results we will see plenty of times during a season and is why bookmakers don’t ride cycles to work.

4-55 – TENNENT´S CUP SCOTTISH CHAMPION HURDLE TRIAL HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-150) Winner £16,245 8 runners 2m Good

NUTS WELL….+15
* – MARDALE….+11
T* – WORK IN PROGRESS….+10
* – GREAT FIGHTER….-13
* – MARTILA….-13
* – CAPTAIN BROWN….-16
T* – SPACE SHIP….-35 – WON 7/1
T – NEWBERRY NEW….-40

NOTES: The ground is wrong for my top rated here….0-5. Having said that, none of these would appear to favour it, the only horse in here to have succeeded on it more than once, CAPTAIN BROWN, only 2-16!

My figures indicate that if the winner is outside my top three I need new glasses. Right now I’m undecided how I will play this race as it has a musty smell about it and I’m not keen on any of those with the + figure.

RESULT – A race I didn’t bet at all but perhaps should have just played with that pair indicated T*….?….if’s buts and maybe’s….I’m afraid those words cannot be factored in until after a race has been run and hindsight is a wonderful thing, isn’t it!

5-30 – CALEDONIA BEST HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-115) Winner £4,549 8 runners 2m5f110yGood

* – AMUSE ME….+9
* – GLEANN NA NDOCHAIS….-4
LOWANBEHOLD….-4
T* – SEAN AIRGEAD….-15
* – ALIZEE DE JANEIRO….-17
* – FORMIDABLEOPPONENT….-35 – WON 5/2
VINNY GAMBINI….-40
HARLEYS MAX….-40

NOTES: The track has proven a trap place to race for the five that have tried previously. Collectively they are 0-10 and I’m looking at having just a small 20/80 that one beating the T* icons sitting fourth best.

The trip is spot on for this one….2-5….and whilst only 1-13 ground, the pair having better stats in that regard (FORMIDABLEOPPONENT and ALIZEE DE JANEIRO), are 0-6 track.

It’s another race for minimal staking whichever way you look at it.

RESULT – I didn’t bet this race in the end but gave myself a few good reasons to lay the favourite….who duly won. I laid three horses on the day and two won.

I have had better Saturdays!

WETHERBY

5-05 – RACING UK IN GLORIOUS HD HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-130) Winner £5,523 12 runners 2m3f154y Good

* – WESTERN BREEZE….+9 – PU
T* – STYNES….+8 – 4TH 8/1
T* – KALONDRA….+8 – 2ND 7/1

TUSCAN GOLD….+3
* – CROOKSTOWN….-7
* – DARTFORD RAMBLER….-7
* – CHEBSEY BEAU….-14
T* – SURF AND TURF….-35
T – APPLE OF OUR EYE….-39
BRIAN BORANHA….-40
VERY FIRST TIME….-40
BLUE RAMBLER….-40 – WON 11/8

NOTES: Not a single one of these has won here previously and two of the three boasting the best ground/trip stats are 0-5 here between them….they being DARTFORD RAMBLER and CHEBSEY BEAU.

The third of the trio is KALONDRA….2-5 ground, 2-7 trip and yet to race here. Just seven runs over hurdles to date and a winner of his last two, he also has the T* icons and is in my dutch.

STYNES also has those icons and it’s only that one piece of criteria I apply that has the second and third highest rated as they are. The common sense option, based on the fact STYNES is just 1-9 trip, 0-1 ground would be to run with KALONDRA….and I will be doing so.

My top rated is 1-2 ground, 1-3 trip and 0-1 track. You would be expecting the mare to run a big race and if the winner is outside my top three I’ll be binning betting slips!

SURF AND TURF….a few longstanding members will remember we had that in a dutch a few years ago when he won at Aintree…..April 2015….and I was on at 40/1 that day. The current owner bought him that day, having had enough on to enable him to take him home without touching his own money, of which he has plenty! He is now without a win since June of the same year and on a losing run of 10. Won and placed in 21 of it’s 47 runs under rules to date, the 10 year old owe nobody anything.

I’ll be dutching my top three, exotics and a nice 20/80 KALONDRA.

RESULT – The winner here was impossible for me to rate any higher, given the limited experience over obstacles but I blind man in a dark room knew what was going to happen.

I had a decent enough 20/80 on the runner up, who I thought was given enough to do by Tom Scudamore but he’d not have beaten that winner had he been 10 lengths closer than he was at any point.

SUNDAY 30/09/16

HUNTINGDON

2-30 – MACER GIFFORD HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-105) Winner £6,498 10 runners 2m104yGood

H – JACKTHEJOURNEYMAN….+10 – WON 13/2 > 9/2
NORSE LIGHT….+8 – 2ND 6/1
T* – NO NO CARDINAL….-20
T* – EDLOMOND….-20 – 5TH 28/1
* – THAT’S THE DEAL….-30 – 3RD 20/1
* – LARKHALL….-35 – 4TH 9/1

* – KEPPEL ISLE….-37
T – LAKE CHAPALA….-40
T – HONKYTONKTENNESSEE….-40

NOTES: If EDLOMOND takes a shine to the track he’s the best horse, statistically. The 2-11 ground/5-21 trip would certainly trump the 0-10 ground, 1-17 trip and 1-2 track stats held by my top rated.

I’m going to look at working with rated horses 1, 3 and 4, go 20/80 EDLOMOND and see how this pans out.

RESULT – I cannot complain! A nice winner in my dutch…top rated…producing a profit, the top two rated coming home 1st and 2nd….”old school” punters will be happy!….and the figures extremely accurate.

More of those, please!

3-00 – £10 FREE AT 32RED.COM HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-105) Winner £3,249 13 runners 3m1f10y Good

* – GIVEITACHANCE….+12 – 3RD 9/1
T* – FINISH THE STORY….+9 – NR
GENEROUS HELPINGS….-40 – WON 11/4
INCH POWER….-40 – 5TH 5/1
FLEMI TWO TOES….-40 – 4TH 12/1
KANTURK BANK….-40 – 6TH 14/1

GRAND GIGOLO….-40
TH – PORT NAVAS….-40
EL INDIO….-40
T – THEBOSS ON THEHILL….-40
MONBEG FARMER….-40
PEAL OF BELLS….-40

NOTES: The only horse we can punt here based on ratings and stats is my top one. The 2-6 ground, 3-9 trip and 2-6 track put the rest in the shade. The figures definitely advise it’s only one of two going to win it, that’s for sure and with FINISH THE STORY 2-2 at the trip and having the T* icons I have to dutch them to make sure a profit is extracted from this one.

RESULT – With FINISH THE STORY a non-runner I didn’t bet here but watched the figures perform like Audie Murphy at the Colmar Pocket!

The figures here yesterday were bang on.

CARLISLE

2-45 – RACING FREE BETS @ BOOKIES.COM HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) Winner £12,512 12 runners 3m2f34y Good To Soft

T* – IN THE ROUGH….+18 – 3RD 7/1
T* – ASKAMORE DARSI….+11 – 5TH 9/1
* – CARRIGDHOUN….+11 – WON 12/1

* – FULL JACK….+10
T* – THEATRICAL STAR….+9
* – MILBOROUGH….+8 – 4TH 11/1
CULTRAM ABBEY….+8
FILL THE POWER….-20
T* – CHASE THE SPUD….-37
KILBREE CHIEF….-40
T – BELMOUNT….-40
PRESENTED….-40

NOTES: The better racing is here this afternoon. I am not looking away from my top three rated here as I have a pair on top with the T* icons and that one sitting third best with stats of 4-8 ground, 1-5 trip and 2-6 track….the best on show.

IN THE ROUGH is a straight win play for me as he’s 2-5 ground/1-1 trip and Gerraghty is here to get on board.

It’s the best race of the day for me….really looking forward to it.

RESULT – Lovely….another 12/1 winner in my dutch, the top three producing two of the first three home and four of the first five in my to p six rated.

Profit made and very pleased with that lot I was, too.

3-15 – EXCLUSIVE FREE BETS @ BOOKIES.COM HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-150) Winner £12,512 11 runners 2m4f8y Good To Soft

T – WALKING IN THE AIR….+11
T – SERGEANT MATTIE….+10
* – DEFINITELY RED….+8 – WON 7/2 > 11/4
T* – ONEFITZALL….+8 – 2ND 3/1

T* – JENNYS MELODY….-4
* – TOP BILLING….-7
* – UPSILON BLEU….-11
* – ISLAND HEIGHTS….-21
* – SHADES OF MIDNIGHT….-24
T* – AMIRAL COLLONGES….-35
ALLBARNONE….-40

NOTES: Two in here with three ticks and neither can get in my top six rated….an indication as to just how competitive this is. Of my top pair it’s SERGEANT MATTIE catching my eye. Yet to race on this ground he’s 2-4 trip and 1-1 at Carlisle he’s coming back of a heck of a long absence but I sense his trainer has targeted this race for him.

WALKING IN THE AIR (I thought), was supposed to be going chasing this season (still might), and he’s 0-1 on the ground and 1-3 trip.

Still a decent trip to be here and whilst the stable had an off day yesterday I expect this one to run well….they rate him quite highly at home.

You could actually take any of my top six rated and put up a very good argument for it winning….DEFINITELY RED is 1-2 ground, 2-2 trip….ONEFITZALL 1-2 ground, 1-3 trip and yet to race here.

I certainly couldn’t rule any out so I’m going to play rated horses 2, 3 and 4….dutch, 20/80 SERGEANT MATTIE and exotics.

RESULT – Another small profit made but I had to play a little jiggery pokery here as the prices of those I liked were shot enough.

All four rated races yesterday produced what I had been hoping for after the Saturday!

THE OFF INTEREST SELECTIONS

SATURDAY

CULTIVATOR – WON 15/8
(Ascot 4-45) – straight win

CUE CARD
(Ascot 3-20) – straight win

SUNDAY

LATE NIGHT LILY – WON 11/8
(Huntingdon 1-55) – straight win

JIM DANDY
(Huntingdon 3-35) – straight win
DUBAI OR NOT DUBAI – WON 5/2 > 7/4
(Carlisle 4-20) – straight win

Three winners from five selections, profit made, happy man on Wirral.

THE PREVIEWS

You can access those in full, on the website but the elections produced this weekend were:

SATURDAY

MASTER OF FINANCE – STRAIGHT WIN – WON
QUIETO SOL – 20/80 – 3RD 8/1 > 13/2
MISS CRICK/STEPHANIE FRANCES – REVERSE CSF – LOST
NATIVE RIVER/IF IN DOUBT – DUTCH – LOST
OZZIE THE OSCAR – STRAIGHT WIN – WON

SUNDAY

FRONT AT THE LAST – PLACE ONLY – 2ND 12/1
PISTOL PARK – 20/80 – LOST
FOUR MILE BEACH – STRAIGHT WIN – LOST

All in all, considering it is an October….regardless of how well I thought it would go….I’m very happy with how the last month has gone. Hope you are, too.

Kindest regards

Ron

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