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The Sunday NH Preview 02/10/16

Ron RobinsonA very busy day and we’ll hopefully keep the Preview producing profit for you.

I have put together my Hunting preview and will finalise both Kelso and Uttoxeter before 12-00pm so please keep checking back.

Below you have, for the final time, my NH rated races. From tomorrow they will be available only those subscribed to those packages that include Rated races. It’s pretty clear they are performing very well even at this early stage of the season and if you only have access to the Previews right now, you might like to consider, at the very least, Site Membership.

I’ll start with Huntingdon.

HUNTINGDON

2-05 – ROSLYN ROAD N15 NOVICES´ HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £3,899 8 runners 1m7f171y Good

This feels like a decent race with several of the big yards represented and two debutantes off the flat, BLUE SURF and EXCELLENT RESULT, who are very interesting. they currently trade 2nd and 3rd favourite.

It’s again a case of, “can they jump” and until we know, I cannot suggest we get involved.

3-15 – PALLETS WANTED AT BRIAN MARTIN PALLETS JUVENILE HURDLE (CLASS 4) (3yo) Winner £3,899 9 runners 1m7f171y Good

Do you go with the odds on Nick Williams runner, DIABLE DE SIVOLA or, the Alan King debutante, LORD HUNTINGDON, running in the Rooney colours?

One or other of them will win this but the market knows that too.

Another I will simply watch.

3-45 – BRIAN MARTIN WOOD CHIP ANIMAL BEDDING CHASE (A NOVICES´ LIMITED HANDICAP) (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-120) Winner £6,498 7 runners 2m104y Good

This is a good little Novice ‘Chase with all yards represented having saddled winners in the last 14 days. They really are not standing still early doors this season but I would have to be guided by stable form of the man that has produced four winners from 13 runners already, with several of those beaten running well.

Gary Moore has raced eight over jumps in the last two days and they have finished 6, 3, 3, 1, 2, 2, and on that basis I have to fancy FLASHMAN to run a big race at a big price.

Whether he is good enough to win, probably not.

I like the ground/trip stats of PRESENTING LISA, who is 2-3/2-3 respectively. The only time she raced here previously she was thumped in a maiden hurdle and she is a bit hit and miss in terms of consistency.

If she’s on a going day, she’s a 20/80.

POST RACING SELECTION – PRESENTING LISA – 20/80

5-25 – ANDREW TURNER BUILDERS “JUNIOR” STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (CLASS 6) (3yo) Winner £1,949 15 runners 1m5f148y Good

Simply impossible to preview as only one of the 15 runners has previously seen a racecourse. The market will without a doubt, be your best guide!

Not one of the yards represented has had a Bumper winner here and Dan Skelton is actually 0-11 with such runners.

UTTOXETER

1-55 – GERALD EMERY CELEBRATIONS CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS´ MAIDEN HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £3,639 8 runners 2m3f207y Good To Soft

I would normally swerve these races like the plague but with the Logsdon yard in such blinding form, you would have to think BURROWS LANE is going to take a bit of beating. I could never advise anyone takes a short price about one in a Conditional jockeys event and we have plenty of “unknowns” in here.

A no bet race.

2-25 – MERCIAN REGIMENT MAIDEN HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £3,769 12 runners 1m7f168y Good To Soft

We were offered a piece of WHATDUHAVTOGET and unfortunately we could not get involved.

“This is what we were told about this horse:

Tom Malone, one of the most talented National Hunt bloodstock agents in the game and the man who bought us Meet The Legend called me during my recent holiday in Wyoming in a state of high excitement as he had just bought a daughter of Presenting who had won her Point to Point impressively – a race in Ireland that Tom had watched particularly carefully as he had sponsored it! He subsequently wasted little time in snapping up Whatduhavtoget, putting up his own money in order to get ahead of the big boys who would have been after her in a jiffy! Tom kindly gave me first refusal and, as you can imagine, it didn’t take us long to realise that this was one seriously important animal with a very special pedigree. He said “Harry, National Hunt horses bred like this with great looks and obvious ability are so difficult to find let alone buy at a sensible level. I really think she is a star in the making.”

Whatduhavtoget (4yo bay filly by Presenting out of Smooching)

We paid £100,000 for Whatduhavtoget who is a four-year-old, 16.2hh, bay filly by four time champion National Hunt sire, Presenting. As you will see from the photograph and video clip (please click here) she is a spectacularly good looking individual who has a real touch of class about her. She won her only point-to-point start in Ireland in February, on heavy ground in the quickest time of the day and being only four it was very early in the season for her to be doing that in testing conditions.

The Point to Point website said the following “A competitive looking contest which was run at an even pace on the freshest ground of the day. WHATDUHAVTOGET (IRE) was always positioned to the fore as she tracked the pace for much of the race before hitting the front after the penultimate fence. A mistake at the final fence gave the runner-up the chance to come back at her; however she picked-up again out of the very testing ground, to lengthen her advantage on the short run-in to win going away. With the exception of that final fence error, she jumped well on her debut and is a fine athletic type who has the pace to drop back in trip under rules”.

She has the size and scope to make up into a chaser and with the new racing programme for fillies and mares, there are now plenty of opportunities in a number of valuable races throughout the season right up to Black Type level. Whatduhavtoget has an exciting broodmare’s pedigree (she has the same sire/damsire cross as Yorkhill) which means she could become a valuable breeding prospect when she has finished her racing career.

The Presenting Syndicate consists of twenty shares at a cost of £8,750 plus VAT per share and as always shares are sold on a first come, first served basis. Please find attached The Presenting Syndicate fact sheet. The filly is currently at Brian O’Rourke’s yard in Lambourn but will eventually be sent to Dan Skelton once she has had a summer out at grass. Needless to say, she has impressed everyone who has seen her so I do hope that you will seriously consider taking a share in such an exciting National Hunt prospect.”

All I’m going to do is watch and then cry as he is led into the winners circle.

2-55 – AVONSIDE SUPPLIERS BEGINNERS´ CHASE (CLASS 3) (4yo+) Winner £6,256 6 runners 2m4f Good To Soft

VALUE AT RISK was a mighty disappointment last season as he was considered a potential superstar over fences but he just never got it going. If a yard can fix one, it’s the Skelton yard and I’m looking forward to this horse getting it right over the big ones this time around and expect him to win this easily.

POST RACING SELECTION – VALUE AT RISK – STRAIGHT WIN

KELSO

Not many races to work with here because they are very small fields ….one has cut up to just a pair of runners.

3-25 – HAPPY BIRTHDAY SYLVIA NOVICES´ HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-105) Winner £5,848 6 runners 2m7f96y Good To Firm

In fact, this would be the only race to work with.

I’m liking the fact Tim Vaughan has sent a bus load up on a heck of a trip and SHOW’S OVER, who is 1-2 trip, looks a good favourite.

The danger is obviously AWESOME TUNES, who has made an even longer journey.

I’d have a straight win the Vaughan runner and a CSF.

POST RACING SELECTION – SHOW’S OVER – STRAIGHT WIN

2-35 – BANDMPALLETSUPPLIES.CO.UK HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-120) Winner £3,899 6 runners 2m3f189y Good

* – MILLE NAUTIQUE….+13
* – TANGOLAN….+8
* – FACT OF THE MATTER….+4
GAMAIN….-26
* – DEFINITE FUTURE….-35
KNIGHT’S PARADE….-40

NOTES: Only two of the trainers represented here have saddled a winner in the last 14 days….Alan King (my top rated), and Feral O’Brien, my second highest rated.

I’d just work that pair, as they have fallen.

4-20 – BRIAN MARTIN PALLETS WOOD CHIPPING HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-100) Winner £2,599 15 runners 2m3f137y Good

* – THE KVILLEKEN….+10
* – TIRADIA….+10
* – SHALIANZI….+8
T – MONDELLO….-3
TIDESTREAM….-11
T* – SUFFICE….-24
* – DOWN TIME….-27
* – LARTETA….-27
* – PRIMO ROSSI….-35
YUL FINEGOLD….-40
T – MIDNIGHT GYPSY….-40
RIZAL PARK….-40
FLAMINGO BEAT….-40
T – DROP ZONE….-40
T – YUR NEXT….-40

NOTES: Very poor statistically… shocker in fact. The only previous course winner here, TIRADIA, is 1-10 track, which is backed up by a less than sublime 1-22 ground. and 0-5 trip brace of numbers….and she sits second best on my ratings.

It is a race you do one of two things with when the season gets going “proper like”….bin it or, play the top trio to October Rules.

4-50 – BOOK THE EXTREMEMACHINE.CO.UK VIRTUAL REALITY SIMULATOR HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-115) Winner £3,249 9 runners 3m1f10y Good

* – OCCASIONALY YOURS….+16
T* – FACTOR FIFTY….+9
* – TOWN MOUSE….+7
* – PHARE ISLE….-8
T – BELLS OF AINSWORTH….-11
WALKAMI….-21
GOLANOVA….-22
T* – GINGILI….-40
BUCKONTUPPENCE….-40

NOTES: OCCASIONALLY YOURS is 2-7 here and has a decent 4-20 ground stat. Strange that at the age of 12, they try this trip for the very first time?

PHARE ISLE is 1-13 ground, 1-4 trip and 1-6 track….the only runner with three ticks.

GINGILI most definitely has the ground….3-5 on it but this trip/track represent debuts on both counts.

It’s another we either trust to the numbers or wait for a more genuine punting opportunity.

KELSO

2-15 – NEWCASTLE ARMS COLDSTREAM HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-120) Winner £3,899 8 runners 2m51y Good

JOKERS AND ROGUES….+17
T* – MAKETHEDIFFERENCE….+8
NINE ALTARS….+1
* – MARTILLA….-7
* – ARTHURS SECRET….-8
* – ROLL OF THUNDER….-22
* – CLAUDE CARTER….-31
MUWALLA….-40

NOTES: I’m much liking MAKETHEDIFFERENCE. The 1-2 ground, 3-19 trip and 1-1 track stats make him the golden boy in here.

Those two icons, plus the fact his trainer is the “winning most” in the last 14 days (3-17), and they’ve sent that horse box on a 684 mile round trip suggest i have to play that one 20/80, if nothing else.

I have one miles clear on my numbers and the only thing stopping me suggesting we lump on is the fact he’s never raced on this ground before….definitely has trip/track right though and a top two dutch/exotics could produce a profit.

We’ll see.

UTTOXETER

3-35 – EXCLOOSIVE EVENTS HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-130) Winner £6,330 8 runners 2m7f70y Good

* – MONT CHOISY….+10
T – TANTAMOUNT….+10
H* – BUCKING THE TREND….-2
T* – UNANIMITIE….-13
* – OPTIMISTIC BIAS….-14
* – SOME ARE LUCKY….-27
* – BOWIE….-36
SOURIYAN….-40

NOTES: Very weak stats wise as none has won here before, onlythree have triumphed over the trip and the wins to runs ratio of the majority on this ground is not great.

My top rated could arguably be described as best on stats….1-2 ground, 1-4 trip and yet to race here but that just backs up what I’ve already said.

I doubt I’ll be tempted to play much at all today, if any, sticking to Tony’s football plays, BUT THIS IS ONE i’ll be looking to see how those boasting most icons get on.

4-10 – MARSTON´S KALTENBERG HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-120) Winner £6,256 10 runners 3m2y Good

T – ITSTIMEFORAPINT….+12
* – TROIKA STEPS….+10
* – BIG CASINO….+9
H* – CLUBS ARE TRUMPS….+9
MR MAFIA….+1
* – HIGH RON….-12
* – COBAJAYISLAND….-27
BOYFROMNOWHERE….-40
COEUR DE FOU….-40
ROUGH JUSTICE….-40

NOTES: HIGH RON is very much the stats runner here….3-12 ground, 2-11 trip and 3-6 track….plus he’s in my top six.

How many of your remember Sean Trivass’s Post Racing website debut, when he posted up BIG CASINO as a play in a bumper…won 33/1?

Ludlow, November 2012….where did those four years go!

The horse is 0-5 at this trip and would be excluded from my play, despite the stable form….7-26 in the last fortnight.

My top rated is (or would be but for stable form…0-11), interesting as he’s been shovelled into a horse box for a trip down on a Sunday. Seasonal debut form figures suggest he will not be winning today, much rather a December day up north, when it’s riding sloppy.

CLUBS OR TRUMPS is 3-7 trip but 0-4 here and only 1-8 ground, and TROIKA STEPS has limited stats for me to work with and so I’d have to trust my numbers…..which is certainly paying dividends right now.

I’d be looking to rated horses 2, 4 and 6 myself.

4-40 – SIGNS 2000 HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-100) Winner £3,249 8 runners 2m6f108y Good

* – MR ROBINSON….+9
* – SHE’S LATE….+8
* – ROC DE GUYE….-8
* – BRAVE ENCOUNTER….-19
* – THAT’S THE DEAL….-30
* – DAWNIERIVER….-37
IS LOVE ALIVE….-40

NOTES: Might tell Karen she should have a £1 e.w. double, HIGH RON and MR ROBINSON….and she could do worse if both run to stats! My top rated is 2-4 here but to be honest if you use stats here to find you a winner, you’ll be a long time looking.

Not a race I’m sweet on at all right now and the last pair below are most certainly left well alone!

5-10 – INTEGRATED FOOD PROJECTS HANDICAP HURDLE (DIV I) (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-100) Winner £2,989 9 runners 1m7f168y Good

BOBBLE BORU….-10
DONNA’SPRIDE….-32
CHAKISTO….-37
H – GOODWOOD MIRAGE….-40
NOLECCE….-40
STAR ASCENDING….-40
GOAL….-40
POLVERE D’ORO….-40
WILLOW ISLAND….-40

NOTES: see above

5-40 – INTEGRATED FOOD PROJECTS HANDICAP HURDLE (DIV II) (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-100) Winner £2,989 9 runners 1m7f168y Good

BRING BACK CHARLIE….-4
* – TOM WADE….-13
* – ANTON DOLIN….-16
* – NOBLE CALL….-25
HEURTEVENT….-25
BONVILSTON BOY….-37
SINOUR….-40
NAFAATH….-40

NOTES: see above

Have a great day

Ron

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