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Southwell Preview 03/10/16

Ron RobinsonToday’s meeting is interesting mainly because PAMPANINI, the horse we are trying to buy from Harry Fry for our members to go racing with this season, runs in the Bumper.

I have provided two rated races, which can be located in the Rating section of the website, but we kick off with a two mile Novice Handicap Chase.

2-10 – DOWNLOAD THE AT THE RACES APP NOVICES´ HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-100) Winner £3,899 11 runners 1m7f153y Good To Soft

The racing here is nearly always statistically very weak and this is a perfect example of that statement. However, here we have a Harry Fry runner that I know is considered well handicapped and will be expected to win this and another few before the handicapper matches up.

He has booked Kieron Edgar to ride and he’s pretty lethal around here, a superb 4-12 wins to rides ratio and this is his only mount here this afternoon.

She only placed once for Lucinda Russell and was picked up for absolute buttons by Jack Barber at the sales last year. He ran her in a few PTP’s won one by a distance, sold her on to a racing club and now she runs off just 76.

I’d expect her to win this if she gets round (never take anything for granted!).

POST RACING SELECTION – INNOCENT GIRL – STRAIGHT WIN

2-40 – HAYDAYS RACING CLUB NOVICES´ HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-120) Winner £4,549 8 runners 2m7f209y Good To Soft

STEPS AND STAIRS loves this place…2-4….and the trip isn’t an issue….2-7….but that 0-7 ground stat is a bit of an issue, no?

KINARI arrives from a stable doing ok (2-11 in the last 14 racing days), who is 3-7 ground and 2-7 trip. Never raced here previously but for sure I’d prefer to have the ground/trip right.

Nothing else here has stats worth a carrot and if a gun was put to my head I’d go with the Bowen runner. He recently came back off a break to run 6th of nine over an inadequate trip and should give 20/80 players a run for their cash.

POST RACING SELECTION – KINARI – 20/80

3-10 – VISIT ATTHERACES.COM “NATIONAL HUNT” NOVICES´ HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £3,899 6 runners 1m7f153y Good To Soft

Tim Vaughan was absolutely flying yesterday, as I thought he would, and he saddles DEBECE here.

This Kayf Tara gelding is the only runner in the race to have won on the going as currently described, is the only runner in here to have won over this trip (2-4), is on a three-timer having won his last two and the yard is absolutely bombing along right now (7-25 in the last 14 racing days).

The only bet I could have here is a straight win that one but the market has it trading odds on and Novices doing that are not appealing at all.

A no bet race for me.

4-40 – NSPCC RACE FOR CHILDREN MAIDEN OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (CLASS 6) (4-6yo) Winner £1,949 13 runners 1m7f153y Good To Soft

PAMPANINI could have been racing in our colours and I been able to raise the funding but we came up a little shy of the “required” to make it work so we watch her with interest.

Harry has never saddled a Bumper runner here before so I’ve no stats to guide me on that score.

Three trainers do target these races here, Twiston-Davies, Tom Lacey and Ben Case.

The one of the three that would have me watching for market moves is NEW MEMBER, trained by Lacey and ridden on debut by Richard Johnson.

POST RACING SELECTION – NEW MEMBER – 20/80

I looked at the flat race meetings but found them unappealing….funny how that works. One day I’m all over it, the next I can completely switch off from it.

Let’s just stick to making profit from the racing I can get a grip on now.

Have a great day

Ron

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