Breaking News
Home / Previews / Saturday Preview 29/10/16

Saturday Preview 29/10/16

Ron RobinsonIt’s a terrific afternoon of racing today and whilst we have just one race from Ayr for Preview (the other six are all rated races), we do have a few from Wetherby and Ascot for you.

AYR

2-05 – TENNENT´S MAIDEN HURDLE (CLASS 5) (4yo+) Winner £2,599 13 runners 2m Good

MASTER OF FINANCE, wearing first time cheekpieces, running for a yard now boasting a 33% strike rate over the last 14 days (4-12) will take a lot of beating here if making normal improvement on his recent debut over obstacles.

I have always been of a mind a good flat horse beats a good NH horse in this discipline and the market has already made it’s mind up the Jefferson horse is the one to beat.

Right now it’s 6.2 bar this horse on Betfair and unless late money arrives for the likes of ROBINTHEAULD or STRAIT OF MAGELLAN then I am not looking elsewhere for a winner.

POST RACING SELECTION – MASTER OF FINANCE – STRAIGHT WIN

ASCOT

1-55 – ASCOT UNDERWRITING CHASE (A NOVICES´ LIMITED HANDICAP) (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-140) Winner £9,747 6 runners 2m2f175y Good

BALLEYBOLEY will be fancied to go in again but I am put off by the Twiston-Davies record with steeplechasers here….just 2-22 in the last five seasons.

On that score the two interesting me most are MASTER DEE and SAN BENEDETO.

Conor Shoemark, who rides MASTER DEE, has a superb 29% strike rate for Fergal O’Brien here and if I had to bet on a Novice Chase, that would be the one but I’ll pass for punting purposes.

NO BET

4-10 – GARDINER & THEOBALD NOVICES´ HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-120) Winner £5,848 11 runners 2m3f58y Good

I’m not sure what the conditions of entry where here but it cannot have been based on the rampant ability of a jockey to ride winners here!

Very few of these have managed it and only one has hit double figures, Noel Fehily.

He rides DEAUVILLE DANCER who is 0-6 ground, 0-2 trip and never raced here previously.

From a statistical view the only runner worth considering for punting purposes is QUIETO SOL, who is ridden by Davy Russell. The horse is 1-3 ground, 1-1 trip and at the current price of 8.2 win, 2.54 place, I’d be happy going 20/80.

POST RACING SELECTION – QUIETO SOL – 20/80

5-20 – NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (CLASS 4) (4-6yo) Winner £4,549 8 runners 1m7f152y Good

I’m never going to be over confident of posting up a Bumper runner and whilst I know that COUP DE PINCEAU is expected to make up into a useful hurdler he carries a penalty in this and that’s never easy to do.

I’ll keep an eye on the market but will most likely not be betting here.

NO BET

WETHERBY

2-10 – OLBG.COM MARES´ HURDLE (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £12,529 7 runners 2m Good

The first race on the card has cut up badly, now down to four runners and I’d never get involved in such a race.

Here we have seven going to post and whilst not ideal, it’s a decent race with several in form mares taking part.

BEYONDTEMPTATION is the only previous course winner in the field but on the basis she is 0-13 on genuine good ground, you look elsewhere….effectively down to six then.

It’s a race that, historically, you won’t find the winer outside the front two on the tissue:

STEPHANIE FRANCES
MISS CRICK

Both ground and trip and perfect for both and neither has raced here previously.

Trainer form suggests both yards are in good form so, no early season advantage there.

They are really impossible to split from all angles bar age grouping.

No 8-y-o has won this in the eight previous runnings despite three trying and so I’m marginally favouring MISS CRICK.

The most sensible play though is a reverse forecast to take a small profit from it.

POST RACING SELECTION – MISS CRICK/STEPHANIE FRANCES REVERSE F/CAST

2-45 – BET365 HURDLE (REGISTERED AS THE WEST YORKSHIRE HURDLE) (GRADE 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £22,780 7 runners 3m26y Good

Favourites have struggled in this recently, only one of the last seven succeeding.

It’s also a fact the last five runnings of this has gone to a seasonal debutante trading second or third favourite.

It’s not strong stat wise other than and whilst the glaringly obvious pick is BALLYOPTIC, I’d rather have two against it and will just set up a dutch NATIVE RIVER and IF IN DOUBT.

NATIVE RIVER floats my boat most of that pair but I’ll be happy if one of them topples the favourite.

POST RACING SELECTION – NATIVE RIVER/IF IN DOUBT – DUTCH

3-20 – BET365 CHARLIE HALL CHASE (GRADE 2) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £56,950 7 runners 3m45y Good

A selection for this has been entered into the OF INTEREST section of the Newsletter this morning.

BET365 NOVICES´ HURDLE (CLASS 3) (4yo+) Winner £5,523 9 runners 2m Good

We have nine going to post but six are makeweights whose connections will not want them finishing anywhere close to the likes of OZZIE THE OSCAR, MISTER KIT or ZIPPLE BACK.

This is undoubtably a race for four and five year olds as they’ve won nine of the 10 runnings of this.

That makes it a straight fight between ZIPPLE BACK and OZZIE THE OSCAR.

The last named is 1-2 ground, 3-5 trip and I have absolutely no idea how ZIPPLE BACK will fare as his only previous attempt at this trip ended in failure.

POST RACING SELECTION – OZZIE THE OSCAR – STRAIGHT WIN

Best of luck

Ron

About Ron Robinson

Check Also

Today’s Preview 01/06/17

I read a lot of racing books, I make a lot of notes, I make …

Leave a Reply