Breaking News
Home / Previews / Cheltenham Preview 21/10/16

Cheltenham Preview 21/10/16

Ron RobinsonGood to get back to work properly today and whilst it was never really going to be a break with everything that was going on here, I could take a step back from a few things.

I only have one rated race at Cheltenham today and one “OF INTEREST”. so I will look at each of the races left for Previewing.

2-10 – NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES´ HURDLE (CLASS 2) (4yo+) Winner £10,635 5 runners 2m5f26y Good

A five runner event, each runner having won last time up. The problem for me with such field sizes is the potential for a false pace, which will in turn provide a false result and so from a punting angle, not for me.

All bar the Charlie Mann yard are currently in flying form, none of the other four trainers having less than a 33% strike rate in the last 14 racing days, poor old Charlie 0-5.

COLIN’S SISTER has already been beaten at Cheltenham on both previous runs at Prestbury Park and that would concern me. The fact she receives the mares allowance would not tempt me in and bolstering that opinion would be the 1-19 strike rate of her trainer here with hurdlers over the last five seasons.

If I were looking for a winner I would be selecting from either EL BANDIT, or TEMPLEROSS but as I am not betting anyway, that’s academic.

2-45 – SQUAREINTHEAIR.COM NOVICES´ CHASE (CLASS 2) (4yo+) Winner £12,512 8 runners 1m7f199y Good

A cracking good Novices’ Chase and my preference here is for MARACUDJA. Currently unbeaten on genuine good ground and having a 33% strike rate over this trip, he started the new season off by winning a three runner Chase at Newton Abbot, going off second favourite but beating the odds on BALLYBOLLEY, who has since franked that form by winning at Wetherby, an easy three lengths.

The thing I liked that day was his jumping. He made all his own running and had that race won a mile out.

Cheltenham, in a bigger field, will be a different test but based on what I have seen so far, I’m cosy punting this one.

POST RACING SELECTION – MARACUDJA – STRAIGHT WIN

3-55 – RYMAN STATIONERY CHELTENHAM BUSINESS CLUB NOVICES´ CHASE (CLASS 2) (5yo+) Winner £12,512 6 runners 3m80y Good

If previous Cheltenham form can accurately predict a winner then TIGER ROLL, who recently won the Munster National, is home, hosed and the trophy getting a polish already.

This horse is 3-6 ground, 1-3 trip and 2-3 track. The only other runner holding a candle to this one is HERON HEIGHTS. Those 3-5 ground and 1-1 trip stats suggest that this prize is going back to Ireland.

I’m not going to try and tie myself in knots looking for something that most likely doesn’t exist and will simply run up a straight win play TIGER ROLL.

POST RACING SELECTION – TIGER ROLL – STRAIGHT WIN

4-30 – HARRISON JAMES & HARDIE MAIDEN HURDLE (CLASS 3) (4yo+) Winner £6,256 9 runners 2m87y Good

Very much a race to treat with a deal of caution as we have several unknown quantities here, in eluding one currently priced 16 making debut for the same yard (Skelton), that won this race last season. how good, or otherwise, is CKALKO DES LOGES? I have absolutely no idea…you?

We have a Henderson horse, THOMAS CAMPBELL, 1-1 ground, 1-1 trip, priced up longer than his stable companion, KHEZERABAD, and if I were to bet here (which I won’t be), it would be a small 20/80 THOMAS CAMPBELL simply because of those stats….and they are certainly no guarantee he’ll prove good enough in what will be a hot novice.

5-05 – RYMAN STATIONERY AMATEUR RIDERS´ HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-125) Winner £7,195 18 runners 3m1f Good

In such races as this I simply look for those riders that can race ride, proven to be the equal of a professional and here I’d short list three:

HANDY ANDY
VELATOR
CECIL CORBETT

The last named is ridden by Jamie Codd, who could turn pro tomorrow and ride hundreds of winners. He is a jockey in demand in such races, and is 3-5 winners to rides in the last 14 racing days. He is riding here for a trainer boasting a superb 33% strike rate in that same time span, 18-55.

My concern would be the trip, currently 0-2 but I cannot visualise him finishing out of the frame and so will most certainly advise a 20/80.

POST RACING SELECTION – CECIL CORBETT – 20/80

Have a great day and best of luck

Ron

About Ron Robinson

Check Also

Today’s Preview 01/06/17

I read a lot of racing books, I make a lot of notes, I make …

Leave a Reply