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Carlisle and Huntingdon Preview 30/10/16

Ron RobinsonExtremely pleased with yesterday’s Preview. Short priced winners are still winners, producing profit and that’s fine by me.

Carlisle and Huntingdon today and with just four rated races and three OF INTEREST we should have something to work with here.

CARLISLE

1-00 – EXPERT BETTING TIPS @ BOOKIES.COM NOVICES´ HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £3,249 12 runners 2m4f8y Good To Soft

TWO TAFFS is seriously highly rated at home and currently trades 1.44 (about 4/9) on betfair. He’ll win if all goes well.

We cannot punt him at that price and I’d rather take a better price on in here to place.

The only trainer to have saddled a winner over hurdles here, having one in the from four on the tissue, is Donald McCain and with very little to go on I’ll suggest a place only play his runner.

POST RACING SELECTION – FRONT AT THE LAST – PLACE ONLY

1-35 – COMPARE RACING ODDS @ BOOKIES.COM BEEHIVE CHASE (A NOVICES´ LIMITED HANDICAP) (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135)

A really good novices’ Chase and I was very tempted to post up GURHKA BRAVE as a 20/80 until I saw the 0-10 trip stat! He is unbeaten in two previous runs here though and the horses trainer has a superb 60% strike rate with steeplechasers here.

The step up in trip is expected to suit KNOCKGRAFFON, as is the switch to fences and he’ll be competitive but the one winking at me is PISTOL PARK.

Brian Hughes made this one to win last time up and retains the ride this afternoon. Brian Ellison, who has a 3-16 record with ‘chasers here, considers him a more than decent prospect who will be suited by a bit of give in the ground, even though he won on officially good to soft at Hexham.

The market has him trading second favourite behind the Skelton runner and I’ll go 20/80.

POST RACING SELECTION – PISTOL PARK – 20/80

2-10 – EXPLOSIVE PRODUCTIONS LTD 12TH ANNIVERSARY NOVICES´ HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-110) Winner £3,249 16 runners 2m1f33y Good To Soft

I have actually rated this by mistake and it came out an absolute shocker. Top rated was LORD BALLIM from LYME PARK with FOUR MILE BEACH third best and with the middle one having been pulled, I expect the winner to be one of the other two.

I have to think, all things considered, the 3-y-o FOUR MILE BEACH is the most likely to succeed but I would not be paying much to find out. Minimal staking race, if ever I saw one.

POST RACING SELECTION – FOUR MILE BEACH – STRAIGHT WIN

4-20 – SOUTHAMPTON V CHELSEA PRICE BOOSTS @ BOOKIES.COM “JUNIOR” STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (CLASS 6) (3yo) Winner £1,625 11 runners 1m6f Good To Soft

I have a straight win selection posted in my OF INTEREST section for this race.

HUNTINGDON

1-20 – 32RED CASINO CLAIMING HURDLE (CLASS 5) (4yo+) Winner £2,599 8 runners 1m7f171y Good

A Claimer and the only good thing you can say about such races is, the sooner it is over, the better. I’ll not be betting and and don’t advise you do, either.

1-55 – 32RED ON THE APP STORE NOVICES´ HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £3,899 7 runners 2m3f137y Good

A straight win selection has been included in my OF INTEREST section regarding this race.

3-35 – 32REDSPORT.COM JUVENILE HURDLE (CLASS 4) (3yo) Winner £3,899 7 runners 1m7f171y Good

A straight win selection has been included in my OF INTEREST section regarding this race.

4-05 – 32RED NOVICES´ CHASE (CLASS 3) (4yo+) Winner £6,498 6 runners 2m3f189y Good

Down to five and one of two will win it barring an earthquake.

Take official ratings at face value and only BALLYBOLLEY can actually win it as they go off levels with the Twiston-Davies horse officially 15lb the better horse.

Even allowing for the jockeys claims the favourite should win head in chest but odds on in Novices’ Chases has never floated my boat.

Best of luck

Ron

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