Breaking News
Home / Today's Newsletter / Today’s Ratings and Advice 17/09/16

Today’s Ratings and Advice 17/09/16

Ron RobinsonFrustrating day from a couple of angles yesterday. Spending that time prepping Newbury only to find it totally disintegrated in terms of numbers, then to see OCEAN SHERIDAN cantering in behind a wall of horses, get chopped off twice in his run and end up seventh, just four lengths of landing me another very nice winner….I’m quite sure had he got his run, he would have won that race.

Rough with the smooth though, without doubt I have benefitted from a winner with one behind having had a similar run so not to much complaining.

I’ve been up all night with a pain in my ear that’s as bad as any toothache I have ever had and the left side of my head is killing me.

What you have below is my top six rated for all rated races today. I’m now off to my local walk-in centre to find out what is going on and when I return I will post all figures up on the website and, once that is done, I will send them out in a second Newsletter.

I’m not sure which games Tony Davidson is working on this weekend and I advise you simply keep popping over to the Goal Posts website to see what he is up to.

Be careful out there today, it looks a minefield!

ASSUMPTIONS:

Newbury / Sat 17 Sep
First Race: 1:10 pm Going/Track Soft
Updated @ 6:23pm, Fri 16 Sep

Rails: Rail is set out from the 8f to the 5f by 7yds so all round course distances are 13yds longer. This rail will be moved in for Saturday.
Updated @ 9:02am, Mon 12 Sep

Stalls: Centre of course straight course Centre of course round course
Updated @ 8:30am, Fri 09 Sep

Weather Forecast:Sat Cloudy with a risk of showers later Max 18
Updated @ 6:23pm, Fri 16 Sep

Ayr / Sat 17 Sep
First Race: 1:25 pm Going/Track Good to Soft, Soft in Places (GoingStick: Overall: 7.9; Straight Average: 7.3; Sprint Track: FS: 7.5; C: 7.5; SS: 6.9 on Friday at 11:45)
Updated @ 12:06pm, Fri 16 Sep

Rails: Day 2 – Bends out 3yds adding approx. 9yds to 7f – 1m2f; 18yds to 2m1f Day 3 – Bends out 6yds
Updated @ 6:34am, Fri 16 Sep

Stalls: 5f& 6f: Centre 7f: Outside Remainder: Inside
Updated @ 7:45am, Tue 13 Sep

Weather 2mm rain overnight, now dry, bright & breezy. Fri/Sat – mostly dry with sunny spells max. 17c
Updated @ 11:34am, Fri 16 Sep

Newmarket / Sat 17 Sep
First Race: 1:35 pm Going/Track Good (Good to Soft in places) (GoingStick: 8.3 on Friday at 07:00)
Updated @ 5:32pm, Fri 16 Sep

Stalls: Far Side Course All Races Centre
Updated @ 5:15pm, Wed 14 Sep

Watering: 10mm applied to the course on Monday. A further 5mm applied to the course on Wednesday.
Updated @ 7:51am, Thu 15 Sep

Weather 18 mm Of rain on Friday. Rain has now cleared. Friday; Rain at times which clears later in the day. Saturday; Largely dry.
Updated @ 5:32pm, Fri 16 Sep

Catterick Bridge / Sat 17 Sep
First Race: 2:25 pm Going/Track Good, Good to Soft in places (GoingStick: 8.0 on Wednesday at 16:00)
Updated @ 12:29pm, Fri 16 Sep

Rails: All distances as advertised
Updated @ 10:27am, Wed 14 Sep

Stalls: 1m 4f – Centre Remainder – Inside
Updated @ 11:41am, Sun 11 Sep

Weather 6.5mm rain overnight & this morning. Dry and brightening now 6mm rain Tuesday night Forecast: Friday – Early band of rain clearing to leave a dry but fresher afternoon Saturday – Dry with sunny spells
Updated @ 12:31pm, Fri 16 Sep

ICONS

§ – Indicates ideally drawn
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)
3 – 3-y-o running in all aged handicap

FINAL FIGURES

NEWBURY 2-50 (L-M/H) (2)

T – STARS OVER THE SEA….+17
3 – MUZDAWAJ….+10
§3 – BAYDAR….+8
* – BAADI….+8
* – GOODWOOD MIRAGE….+7
§ – BERMONDSEY….+2
§3* – SIR RODERIC….+2
§ – WHAT ABOUT CARLO….-8
3 – AUTOCRATIC….-11
T§ – WATERSMEET….-15
§3 – ZHUI FENG….-16
H3 – IMPERIAL AVIATOR….-17
* – PASSOVER….-17
T – SENNOCKIAN STAR….-25
* – SCRUTINISE….-25
T§3 – MONTESERRAT….-27
3 – SCARLET DRAGON….-30
SHELL BAY….-32
GOLD PRINCE….-34
T – LORD BEN STACK….-40

NOTES: We have five in here defending an unbeaten Newbury record:

STARS OVER THE SEA 1-1
PASSOVER 1-1
SCARLET DRAGON 2-2
MUZDAWIJ 1-1
IMPERIAL AVIATOR 1-1

In BAYDAR, we have a horse defending an unbeaten record over the trip 3-3.

In terms of the ground, which has now officially dried out to soft (it really does drain well here!), we have just five with winning form on it. SIR RODERIC will, if stats speak true, be most at home on it….currently 2-3.

If I had been profiling this race then for sure I would not be looking for anything older than four. Nine of the last 10 winners came from those age groupings, 4 x 3-y-o’s and 5 x 4-y-o’s.

In my top six rated I have the following qualifying on that score:

MUZDAWAJ
BAYDAR
BAADI
BERMONDSEY

Despite this being extremely competitive each year the market has been pretty accurate. Of the last 10 winners nine could have been found in the front six on the tissue.

BAADI would be dropped by virtue of the fact he’s a 25/1 shot on the morning tissue so, I’m going to set up a dutch rated horses 2, 3 and 6.

Luca Cumani, trainer of BERMONDSEY, targets this race. In the last 10 seasons he has saddled 10 runners and enjoyed three winners and two placed. BAYDAR recently beat him just over a length and BERMONDSEY has run again since, finishing sixth. It’s that fact that has me thinking the winner comes from either MUDAWIJ or BAYDAR. Six of the last 10 winners had won or placed last time up and I feel the winner comes from that pair.

My 20/80 goes to BAYDAR because I feel he’s slightly better drawn…not much in it at all to be honest….and I will set up exotics, too.

AYR 2-35 (L-M-H) (2)

T* – INTISAAB….+12
T* – KICKBOXER….+11
T§* – GET KNOTTED….+10
T§* – ECCLESTON….+9
T§ – ROUDEE….+9
T* – NUNO TRISTAN….+8
T* – MUTASSAM….+8
T* – HANDSOME DUDE….+3
T§* – MY NAME IS RIO….+1
T§3 – REPUTATION….-1
T3* – STAMP HILL….-7
T – NINJAGO….-14
T§ – LEXINGTON ABBEY….-15
T* – BLAINE….-15
T – LOUIS THE PIOUS….-17
TH3 – FLYING PURSUIT….-17
T – GEORGE BOWEN….-19
T* – MUNTADAB….-27
TH§ – SHIPYARD….-29
T§ – ICE LORD….-35
T – HOOFALONG….-39
T§ – AN SAIGHDUR….-40
T – INTENSE STYLE….-40
T – INTIBAAH….-40

NOTES: Marrying up stats to my figures I can only be extremely happy to see that one top rated. 1-2 ground, 4-11 trip and 2-2 track. He has to be my 20/80.

GET KNOTTED is 2-5 here and sitting third best has to be included in any dutch/exotics, and with ECCLESTON having that trio of icons and despite him being 0-1 here (you cannot hold one run against a horse really), I’ll work with rated horses 1, 3 and 4.

AYR 3-10 (M-L/H) (2)

T§* – HIGHLAND COLORI….+17
T§3 – MORANDO….+13
T* – FORT BASTION….+12
T* – LE CHAT D’OR….+10
§ – EDGAR BALTHAZAR….+8
T3* – HALEY BOP….+8
T* – AL KHAN….+8
T§3* – GARCIA….+3
SOUND ADVICE….-4
T§ – ONE WORD MORE….-9
T3 – ANOTHER TOUCH….-12
T§3 – BAHAARAH….-17
T – TWO FOR TWO….-29
TH3 – MOHAB….-39

NOTES:

AYR 3-45 (L-M-H) (2)

T* – ABSOLUTELY SO….+19
T* – HILLBILLY BOY….+10
T§ – WATCHABLE….+9
H§* – ASCRIPTION….+9
T* – BARAWEEZ….+9
T* – TERENTUM STAR….+5
§* – JACK DEXTER….+2
T§* – BRANDO….+2
T – GLEN MOSS….-4
T* – KIMBRELLA….-5
T – G FORCE….-7
T§* – NAMEITWHATYOULIKE….-12
T – FLAMING SPEAR….-13
T* – LULU THE ZULU….-14
T§ – GROWL….-18
T – RIVELLINO….-20
T§ – PERFECT PASTURE….-25
T* – AEOLUS….-25
T – ORION’S BOW….-30
T* – MAGNUS MAXIMUS….-25
T§ – HOOF IT….-34
T§ – SIR ROBERT CHEVAL….-40
T – POYLE VINNIE….-40
T – JOHNNY BARNES….-40

NOTES: I really wanted to see GROWL up there but he’s not and so, off my radar. His 0-3 ground stat makes me feel a bit happier about things but with Fahey only entering this one for the race, you have to think he’s been targeting it for this horse. If he wins it, I’ll just tell myself I told me so!

It’s simply competitive. We saw yesterday how much luck (or bad luck), plays a part in the winning and losing of these races but I’m afraid that cannot be accounted for in any Ratings system…if only, eh!

I believe high drawn are going to struggle. I’ve two in my top six well berthed and both WATCHABLE and ASCRIPTION are into my dutch. I need a third.

ABSOLUTELY SO is drawn what I’d see as “second best, is a winner of five of his 17 races to date and a runner up in three, third in three….to say he;s constant is a bit like saying I was in pain last night….an understatement!

I’ll work with rated horses 1, 3 and 4, go 20/80 my top one and cross the lot because I will need the luck of the devil to draw here….and so will you!

AYR 4-20 (M-L/H) (2)

T – FLIGHT OFFICER….+11
T§3 – PERCY STREET….+9
§ – CORTON LAD….+9
T* – INNOCENT TOUCH….+8
T§3* – SPEED COMPANY….+8
T* – DANCE KING….+5
T§* – IMSHIVALLA….+4
T* – TRES CORONAS….+3
T* – SNOANO….-4
T§ – ESTEAMING….-29
TH* – ARROWZONE….-30
T3 – THEY SEEK HIM HERE….-37
T – FELIX DE VEGA….-39
T§ – LUSIS NATUREA….-40

NOTES: That 3-y-o sitting 5th best is 1-2 ground, 1-4 trip and 1-1 here. It has been running over the wrong trip or on the wrong ground since it won on seasonal debut and if I choose to get involved here, I’d just have a small 20/80 that one.

AYR 4-55 (L-M-H) (3)

T3* – EXPLOSIVE POWER….+12
T* – THAT IS THE SPIRIT….+11
T§* – TATLISU….+9
T§3* – LONDON PROTOCOL….+8
3 – GLENGARRY….+7
T* – NEWSTEAD ABBEY….+4
T§3 – WAR GLORY….-2
T – MOUNT TAHAN….-13
* – GURHKA FRIEND….-18
T§ – BERTIEWHITTLE….-24
T – BALLYMORE CASTLE….-34
T – NORTHGATE LAD….-35
T§ – GHALIB….-40

NOTES: Stas are seriously thin on the ground here and if i play it’s top three to October Rules. I’d be worried more about that one sitting fourth best but for that 0-7 trip stat. TATLISU has three ticks….the only one in here….and that would be my 20/80.

CATTERICK 4-45 (2)

* ASTRA HALL….+11
NEXT EDITION….+11
I AM NOT HERE….+8
* – HUBERTAS….+8
3 – WOTABREEZE….-7
* – CARD HIGH….-15
SHERMAN MCCOY….-27
TRIPLE EIGHT….-40

NOTES:

CATTERICK 5-55 (M-L-H) (6)

* – COOLCALMCOLLECTED….+11
* – WHITE FLAG….+9
* – DESIRE….+9
* – DR RED EYE….+8
* – MR COOL CASH….+4
PRINCESS PEACHES….-14
ALICE THORNTON….-23
BREATHLESS….-26
LENDAL BRIDGE….-33
MRS BIGGS….-40
H – FLYBALL….-40
NAPOLEON SOLO….-40
LORD ROB….-40

NOTES:

CATTERCK 6-25 (M-L-H) (6)

* – DISCLOSURE….+6
ROYAL NORMANDY….-6
§* – CADMIUM….-9
* – BOLD SPIRIT….-10
§ – SALTERELLO….-16
* – ROSY RYAN….-19
§ – TAFAHOM….-30
§3 – EPEIUS….-37
MUNJALLY….-37
THREE TIMES A LORD….-38
3 – MANGO CHUTNEY….-40
§3 – MRS POTTER….-40
3 – KINGFISHER GIRL….-40
§3 – CANFORD BELLE….-40

NOTES:

NEWMARKET 2-05 (4)

RUBAN….+2
3* – BOYCIE….-9
CAROLINAE….-10
T* – WHOZTHECAT….-23
* – TAKE A NOTE….-24
* – VIA VIA….-30
MY TARGET….-33
* – ATHLETIC….-35
T* – ETIENNE GERRARD….-40
FAVOURITE TREAT….-40
UNTIL MIDNIGHT….-40

NOTES:

NEWMARKET 2-40 (4)

3 – FEED THE GOATER….+4
* – SONG OF NORWAY….-17
3 – CONSULTING….-25
* – EVENING ATTIRE….-38
3 – IL PICCOLO GRANDE….-40
CHETAN….-40
INTRUDE….-40
3 – STYLISTIC….-40
3 – RED TEA….-40

NOTES:

NEWMARKET 4-25 (H-L-M) (4)

§* – SOUVILLE….-11
* – EXCELLENT GEORGE….-17
* – FRANCISCO….-19
§3 – ICE AGE….-22
3 – MENAI….-22
§3 – SUMMER CHORUS….-28
3 – BAHAMIAN DOLLAR….-30
H§ – REGAL PARADE….-33
3 – COMPASS SCOOBIE….-36
UNDER SIEGE….-40
FIELD GAME….-40
T§3 – GARDEN WORLD….-40

NOTES:

NEWMARKET 5-00 (3)

3* – ELRAAZY….+11
* – STOCKHILL DIVA….-10
3* – GALA….-13
3 – DUBKA….-36
3 – TALENT TO AMUSE….-40
EAGER BEAVER….-40

NEWMARKET 5-35 (2)

3* ZWAYYAN….+5
T3 – WORLDS HIS OYSTER….-8
* – JAILAWI….-10
* – GLORY AWAITS….-17
* – GRATZIE….-18
WIND IN MY SAILS….-26
TH3* – WHITMAN….-34
T3 – STORM AHEAD….-34
T* – GOD WILLING….-35

NOTES: The only race I will be playing here and it’s just a straight win bet my top rated.

Currently 1-1 ground and 1-2 trip, he’s improving for a stable that is the hottest on planet earth right now.

Have a great day!

Ron

About Ron Robinson

Check Also

Today’s Ratings and OF INTEREST selections 09/11/17

One of the horses we were involved in runs for his new yard today. TOWER …

Leave a Reply