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Today’s Ratings and Advice 14/09/16

Ron RobinsonIt was poor racing yesterday and in addition to that we lost the ground at both Chepstow and Carlisle.

Whilst some down south and east were basking in lovely warm sunshine and looking for an ice cream van, I and many others were thinking that we’d not need to water our gardens yesterday!

Eric, who had gone to see ROYAL CELEBRATION race at Thirsk, sent me a picture of our horse in the parade ring letting g me know just what a glorious day it was there….I’d actually commented to Karen as we watched on TV, the contrast between here and there. That the Man City game was called off came as absolutely no surprise and it was reported on the local news that Keele, which is about an hours drive south of me, had got 27mm in an hour.

To those that enjoyed the crazily hot temperatures yesterday, consider yourself hated.

I ended up playing just one race myself, the Thirsk 3-10. The gamble was duly landed by Bryan and I came away poorer for the experience.

I had produced a preview for Yarmouth and found the only race I was interested in playing was the very last on the card, an extremely decent handicap, Class was right, number of runners perfect, I had a draw bias I believed I could trust and i spent a good hour rating it for those reading. They called that race off.

Yarmouth have been having serious issues since they relaid that track and false ground caused them to abandon it.

I’m not going to even look at racing there until I’m happy they have it right.

TODAY

We have just four rated races this afternoon and all are Class 5, the races at Beverley divisions of the same race. I personally will be extremely selective today, not just because of how poor they are but in the case of two of them, they are seriously top heavy with 3-y-o’s.

I recall the summer of 2013, when we were around 400 points up going into the last couple of weeks of September….actually slightly plus if I recall correctly….and it was at that point we dropped of a cliff. I personally did over 60 points in that two week period leading up to the day we changed codes.

Yesterday and today I’m very mindful of the fact and will very much be selective in my punting between now and September 30th. I do not want a repeat of that fortnight.

THE GOAL POSTS/TIPPEDTOLOSE

I hope you took advantage of the free advice on both sites yesterday.

Both websites are currently free to access and all you need to read his work is a free account with each site.

www.thegoalposts.co.uk
www.tippedtolose.co.uk

ASSUMPTIONS:

Beverley  / Wed 14 Sep
First Race: 1:50 pm Going/Track Good to Firm, Good in places
Updated @ 2:32pm, Tue 13 Sep

Stalls: Inside (all races)
Updated @ 2:15pm, Wed 07 Sep

Weather Wednesday – sunny spells, 23C
Updated @ 6:18am, Wed 14 Sep

Sandown Park  / Wed 14 Sep
First Race: 2:05 pm Going/Track Good (GoingStick: Round 6.9 Sprint 6.7 on Monday at 08:00)
Updated @ 8:51am, Tue 13 Sep

Rails: Rail on Round Course moved out from inner from 7f to a drop-in at 2.5f, adding 24 yards to all Round Course distances.
Updated @ 2:21pm, Tue 13 Sep

Stalls: Sprint Course – Far side (full width) Round Course – Inside
Updated @ 7:59am, Fri 09 Sep

Weather 5mm rain Saturday. Outlook dry and increasingly warm with temperatures possibly reaching 30 degrees on Tuesday and 28 degrees on Wednesday.
Updated @ 8:51am, Tue 13 Sep

Other Going Stick update by 8am on Wednesday.
Updated @ 2:21pm, Tue 13 Sep

ICONS

§ – Indicates ideally drawn
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

3 – 3-y-o running in all aged handicap

FINAL FIGURES

BEVERLEY 4-05 (L-M-H) (5)

* – BURTONWOOD….+12
§* – MUSHARRIF….+9
§3* – BOND BOMBSHELL….+8
§* – ORIENTAL SPLENDOUR….+1
H* – FLICKA’S BOY….-4
T* – SALVATORE FURY….-6
* – SPACE ARTIST….-17
§3 – DANCE ALONE….-19
JAARIH….-30
3 – SOCIALITES RED….-39

NOTES: The highest rated 3-y-o is the one I like most. The stats she holds are by far the best on show….3-9 ground, 3-19 trip and 3-6 track.

I may….may….just have a 20/80 the O’Meara runner….but if I do it’s to my minimum level of staking.

BEVERLEY 4-40 (L-M-H) (5)

3* – LYDIA’S PLACE….+11
§3* – MININGGOLD….+10
H3 – ENCANTER….+7
3 – ACCLAIM THE NATION….-2
* – FLASH CITY….-4
§* – ROYAL BRAVE….-8
* – RUBY’S DAY….-10
§H3 – TOP OF THE BANK….-20
* – ASTROPHYSICS….-27

NOTES: My top pair have three ticks but MININGGOLD appeals most, having been handed a low draw to break from…small 20/80?. With four 3-y-o’s in here though I’d be very wary of doing much else with this one.

SANDOWN 2-05 (L-H-M) (5)

* – PENSAX LAD….+18
§* – DOCTOR PARKES….+11
§H3* – POINT OF WOODS….+9
* – NOCTURN….+4
* – KEEP IT DARK….-6
T* – AMBITIOUS ICARUS….-7
GO NANI GO….-21
BILLYOAKES….-31
§ – BAHAMIAN SUNRISE….-32
§3 – JUMAIRAH STAR….-40

NOTES: If I can be tempted to play any of my four today, this would be the one. I have a draw bias, despite the small field and if I am correct then my top rated is worst drawn. The stats this one brings with him though are superb….3-9 ground, 6-23 trip and 1-2 track.

The top three rated do look solid and that 3-y-o with all the icons really is catching my eye. Will the first time head gear work?

I feel it’s between rated horses 1 & 3. Perhaps a dutch, a 20/80 the 3-y-o and an exotic?

SANDOWN 5-30 (5)

* – IXELLES DIAMOND….+11
3 – PINA….+9
3 – LIMONATA….±0
3 – NAWKHATHA….-6
* – CHORAL FESTIVAL….-9
* – TOMMYS GEAL….-13
3 – PENNERLEY….-15
PERNICKITY….-22
3 – PERFECT QUEST….-28
3 – PATANJALI….-40
SOLVEIG’S SONG….-40
3 – MISS FORTUNE….-40
RUSTIQUE….-40

NOTES: With seven 3-y-o’s in here you could not possibly play using my figures. If my top rated wins this I’ll be utterly stunned. It has not won since 2014 and has managed just a brace of wins in it’s near 40 race career to date.

It’s simply “no play” race for anyone, really, unless you’ve got a copy of tomorrow’s newspaper!

Have a great day!

Ron

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