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Today’s Ratings and Advice 08/09/16

Ron RobinsonI simply hate those 3-y-o’s….it’s official.

The best rated race of the day yesterday, that Carlisle 4-00pm, was very much one I felt happy with, except for the fact I could not rated that 3-y-o, LOADED, any higher. I kinda knew what was going to happen and made mention of the fact I would not be betting. My top rated ran a blinder but was collared close home by….that 3-y-o.

So close to another very nice 9/1 top rated winner.

The 3-y-o I really fancied to win, my top rated in that 4-35pm race, was pulled out and that just added to my frustration with horses of this age group.

On the plus side my only lay advice on Tippedtolose yesterday, OASIS FANTASY, was well and truly mullahed and topped off with my having a decent play on the winner, MOUNT LOGAN.

Reading the race readers report in today’s Racing Post the trainers representative was called in to explain the poor run and couldn’t. Well, ground was wrong, trip was wrong, track was wrong, the trainers form over the last fortnight was 0-17 and his record with horses aged 4+ at Doncaster over the last four years was poor.

I wonder what the Stewards would have said, had the representative told them that?

As layers of the horse, we knew!

TODAY

Some seriously good, competitive handicaps for us to work with, our interest in HELOVAPLAN in that red hot Doncaster 4-50pm….not even a loyalty bet at this end I’m afraid!….and it’s all set fair.

Seven rated races below.

I’m still catching up on e-mails from the two days I was away from my office so if you are still waiting for a response my apologies. I’m here all day today and will be going through my inbox.

Karen and I will also be filling in raffle ticket stubs for those that donated for various “Specials”….plenty of them, too!

I’m already looking for the next project we can support so if you know of an organisation that needs something and deserves to have it, let me know and we’ll look at it with a view to making it our next mission!

ASSUMPTIONS: 

Chepstow  / Thu 08 Sep
First Race: 1:45 pm Going/Track Good to Soft Dry overnight 6mm of rain on Monday 25mm of rain on Saturday (GoingStick: 7.6 on Thursday at 06:00)
Updated @ 6:20am, Thu 08 Sep

Stalls: 5f, 6f, 7f & 1m Centre 1m4f Inside
Updated @ 1:39pm, Tue 30 Aug

Weather Forecast: Sunny periods, max temp 19C.
Updated @ 6:20am, Thu 08 Sep

Doncaster  / Thu 08 Sep
First Race: 1:55 pm Going/Track Good to Soft Good in Places (GoingStick: 7.2 on Wednesday at 06:30)
Updated @ 7:06am, Wed 07 Sep

Rails: The round course is railed out from 1m2f until the round meets the straight. Race 3 about 3 yards added Race 5 about 3 yards added Race 7 about 3 yards added (President of the UAE Cup (UK Arabian Derby) Group 1)
Updated @ 11:17am, Sun 04 Sep

Stalls: Straight course Centre Round course Inside
Updated @ 8:25am, Wed 31 Aug

Weather Saturday 13.2 mm Sunday 1mm of rainfall Monday Dry Overcast temp high +21 Tuesday Dry temp high +24 Forecast Wednesday Dry temp high +23 Thursday Dry temp high +22
Updated @ 7:06am, Wed 07 Sep

Epsom Downs  / Thu 08 Sep
First Race: 2:05 pm Going/Track Good (GoingStick: 6.8 on Wednesday at 13:00)
Updated @ 3:42pm, Wed 07 Sep

Rails: Rail out up to 7 yards from 1 mile to winning post – adding 27 yards to all races of 1 mile +, 17 yards to 7f and 10 yards to 6f.
Updated @ 5:04pm, Mon 05 Sep

Stalls: 6f – Outside 1m 4f – Centre Remainder – Inside
Updated @ 8:07am, Thu 01 Sep

Weather Dry since 3.6mm rain Monday morning. Wednesday warm with sunny spells – up to 26 degrees. Thursday dry with westerly breeze and up to 24 degrees.
Updated @ 3:42pm, Wed 07 Sep

ICONS

§ – Indicates ideally drawn
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

3 – 3-y-o running in all aged handicap

FINAL FIGURESDONCASTER 4-15 (2)

H – CENTRAL SQUARE….+9
* – CHANCERY….+6
3 – POETS WORD….+2
* – TRES CORONAS….-2
3* – LUSORY….-5
3* – ODE TO EVENING….-11
EMERALD….-13
BERMONDSEY….-23
T – NICEOFYOUTOTELLME….-38
3 – COTE D’AZUR….-40
AWAKE MY SOUL….-40

NOTES: Stas would be useless here and I simply have to work with my figures. That 3-y-o sitting thirds best is already trading shorter than 2/1 and try as I might I cannot get him higher up my charts based on just four runs on turf, two of which he has won.

I’ll just dutch that one with CENTRAL SQUARE and try to squeeze a little profit from it.

DONCASTER 6-00 (H-L/M) (3)

* – INVINCIBLE RIDGE….+9
§* – KHELMAN….+9
* – HANDSOME DUDE….+8
INTENSE STYLE….+8
§3* – CELEBRATION….+8
§* – POMME DE TERRE….+3
§* – LUCKY BEGGAR….+1
§ – HIGHLAND ACCLAIM….±0
§* – FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN….±0
REGAL DAN….-3
T§3 – WAR WHISPER….-14
T* – LITTLE PALAVER….-16
T – MISTERIOSO….-17
§ – SHIPYARD….-20
T* – LINKS DRIVE LADY….-20
T – ROSIE’S PREMIERE….-30
DUKE COSIMO….-31
FENDALE….-35
SAKHEE’S RETURN….-40
HOLIDAY MAGIC….-40

NOTES: My top rated is 0-23 trip….no way am I involving that horse in my own play here. Stats won’t help and so I’m all figures and icons myself. Rated horses 2, 5 and 6….dutch, a 20/80 KHELMAN, who just keeps flattering to deceive but will get in front again soon, I’m sure….and exotics.

EPSOM 3-15 (4)

3* – BOYCIE….+10
3* – FRANK BRIDGE….+9
* – LIVE DANGEROUSLY….+9
T* – ZACYNTHUS….+9
SARANGOO….-2
* – PACOLITA….-5
3* – ANOTHER BOY….-13
* – MEZZOTINT….-18
* – CRICKLEWOOD GREEN….-29

NOTES: A pair of 3-y-o’s topping the numbers, that one sitting second best being 2-4 ground, 2-4 trip and 1-1 here….love track winning form here….and I am simply going to post them up as my dutch. I’ll have a small 20/80 BOYCIE and look to see how to work this one for exotics.

EPSOM 5-00 (L-M-H) (5)

* – EVENING ATTIRE….+9
* – HONCHO….+3
§3 – DON’T BLAME ME….+3
§* – SECRET LOOK….-3
PHAROH JAKE….-7
§* – INDUS VALLEY….-12
* – PERFECT PASTIME….-14
§* – HIPZ….-15
T – MAD ENDEAVOUR….-21
* – DIVINE CALL….-25
§ – CHETAN….-29
INVADE….-31
§ – MAYMYO….-34
STRAITS OF MALACCA….-37
PICANSORT….-40

NOTES: That 3-y-o sitting this best has been winking at me since last night.

With my top rated 0-7 trip, he’s gone. HONCHO is in my dutch….4-12 ground, 4-24 trip….never raced here before but until he proves he hates it….most do hate this place….i’ll work with him.

DON’T BLAME ME and SECRET LOOK will join him. Both well drawn, good to go on the ground and highly rated.

It’s a cracker to finish with and I’m looking forward to this!

CHEPSTOW 4-00 (5)

* – GOLDEN WEDDING….+9
T3 – CRYPTIC….-21
RAHMAH….-38
BARISTA….-40
3 – JABBAAR….-40
NEVER TO BE….-40
AL FAITH….-40

NOTES: The only bet I can consider here is a small 20/80 my top rated. The only previous winner on the going as currently described in this field….1-4, the winning most horse in here at the trip….2-6….but also 0-2 here.

The only previous track winner in this race is BARISTA….1-6….but he’s also 0-10 trip and 0-4 ground.

If either of those 3-y-o’s proves good enough it’s absolutely no shock to me because this ain’t a great race at all.

CHEPSTOW 4-35 (L-M/H) (4)

3* – ALIZOOM….+12
§* – BONJOUR STEVE….+9
3 – HE’S MY CRACKER….+8
* – VINCENTTI….+8
§ – PANTHER PATROL….+5
§* – QUICKASWECAN….-3
§ – GOLD HUNTER….-9
SATCHVILLE FLYER….-25
3 – ENGLISHWOMAN….-26
MONARCH MAID….-30

NOTES: I’ve noted a very slight draw bias in favour of low but it’s slow slight I was almost inclined to ignore it.

I have a 3-y-o topping my figures and again, this will be my only punt here….another small 20/80. The majority of these are completely exposed and win in their turn these days and the stats connected to the only runner in here boasting three ticks indicate completely just how inconsistent they are. BONJOUR STEVE is 1-5 ground, 1-19 trip and 2-13 here.

CHEPSTOW 5-10 (6)

* – INVINCIBLE WISH….+12
3 – MADAME CHOW….-5
SHIRITAKI….-40
FAIR COMMENT….-40
GRAMS AND OUNCES….-40
3 – FILE OF FACTS….-40
MASTER DANCER….-40
MEXICAN MICK….-40
3 – DESERT CROSS….-40

NOTES: A moose of a race to conclude matters here. I’m just sitting here shaking my head at this one. My top rated is 1-2 ground, 1-6 trip and 1-4 track….the only runner without a zero attached to all three criteria here would be SHIRITAKE, who is 5-42 trip….other than that, it’s looking hopeless unless, of course, one of those 3-y-o’s down below comes good.

Yet another race in which it’s just a small 20/80 my top one.

Have a great day!

Ron

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