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Today’s Ratings and Advice 03/09/16

Ron RobinsonTomorrow and Monday Karen and I are away, visiting Harry Fry.

There will be no ratings on either day and Weekend Club members will be compensated by having full figures provided for the rest of next week.

I will also be asking Harry for the name of a horse we can follow next season. If he’s happy to let me know, I’ll pass it on to you. 

YESTERDAY

Yesterday was one of frustration mixed with a little joy.

BOY IN THE BAR was a nice winner in my dutch at 2-35 and with my top rated out I threw HARWOODS VOLANTE into that dutch/exotics….those icons were simply irresistible.

A very nice win bet on WILLIAM HUNTER and I “got lucky” again, introducing the 3-y-o into the play as WALPOLE was taken out, and that CSF returned a 7/1 winner, too.

I thought EARLY MORNING was going to deliver something off my dutch at 4-20 but he got collared by a 3-y-o (not the first time, won’t be the last), but Ascot had again been good to me.

Haydock started brilliantly….USTINOV and EDWARD LEWIS coming home first and second, securing the 58/1 CSF, dutch and the “80” off the runner up.

How unlucky was ARNOLD LANE? He was seriously well punted….20/1 > 12/1….and finished his race full of running behind those that took the prizes. Sometimes a good draw can be a curse, eh. Put him in your notebook/trackers…he’ll win again before the season is out.

Musselburgh was roughly what I expected it to be….but I did tell you that top rated 3-y-o in that last race there was one to watch. He was badly drawn, saw to much daylight and ran to free early. That he got beaten in a three way photo @ 18/1 will have been annoying to those that punted and even more so to those that worked the top three in exotics because you missed a nice Exacta by a short head.

TODAY

Basically racing I dream about working on.

Big field handicaps, are so much more interesting than small field Group racing and today is manna from heaven. It could all go Pete Tong because of the 3-y-o’s again, as it did last weekend when my figures were not bad but, they could never take into account how those younger horses were improving. Even the official handicapper has his hands tied by those critters.

Plenty to be getting on with so let’s get to business.

MEET THE LEGEND

Those principle syndicate members will already be on the edges of their seats. Last night, just as I was about to put the fork into the pasta, an e-mail me through from Highclere that had me buzzing.

It contains a short video of our horse popping a few training logs and he looks absolutely awesome. He has a proper “jumpers bump” on him and listening to Dan Skelton talking about how much he has improved for being given that time off has cause for real optimism.

Dan is still looking to head for the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in November and if you recall, last season he sent SUPERB STORY for that race. The horse finished second in that before going on to win the County Hurdle at the Festival in March and he’s such an exciting prospect….certainly the best we have been involved in to date.

Bring on the fences, that’s what I am most looking forward to in 2017-2018.

THE SMART SET SYNDICATE

It has been a frustrating summer for Bryan with the three juveniles but hopefully the signs now are that we’ll get a few runs under our belts.

News that the one I believed from day one would be the best of the three, HELOVAPLAN, has been given his debut entry for Doncaster next week and Bryan will confirm on Tuesday whether we race or not.

He’s one I’m very much looking forward to seeing on a track!

ASSUMPTIONS:

Haydock Park  / Sat 03 Sep
First Race: 1:50 pm Going/Track Good (GoingStick: 8.0 on Saturday at 06:30)
Updated @ 6:55am, Sat 03 Sep

Rails: All races will run over the Stand Side Home Straight. Allowing for rail position on bends, approximate race distances are: 5f 6f 1m 50yds 1m 2f 145yds 1m 6f 92yds
Updated @ 6:55am, Sat 03 Sep

Stalls: Centre: 5f, 6f, 1m2f Inside: 1m & 1m6f
Updated @ 6:55am, Sat 03 Sep

Weather Dry overnight. Rain forecast from 10.00am onwards
Updated @ 6:30am, Sat 03 Sep

Ascot  / Sat 03 Sep
First Race: 2:05 pm Going/Track Straight Course: Good to firm, Good in places Round Course: Good, Good to Firm in places (GoingStick: Straight: 7.9, Round: 7.6 on Friday at 08:15)
Updated @ 8:23am, Fri 02 Sep

Rails: The rail on the round course is positioned 3yds out from its innermost position from the 1m 4f start increasing to 14yds out at the Home straight. Increasing distances by approx the following: Old Mile: 17yds 1m 4f & 1m 2f: 21yds. The straight course has been divided in two with a rail in the middle of the course; the standside will be used for this meeting.
Updated @ 9:27am, Tue 30 Aug

Stalls: Straight Course: Standside Round Course: Inside
Updated @ 9:27am, Tue 30 Aug

Watering: Watered straight course 4mm overnight to Tuesday morning. Watered whole course 4mm overnight to Wednesday morning.
Updated @ 7:50am, Wed 31 Aug

Weather 0.5mm rain since racing Friday to 6.30am Saturday. Mainly dry forecast with showers due late afternoon today.
Updated @ 6:32am, Sat 03 Sep

Thirsk  / Sat 03 Sep
First Race: 2:20 pm Going/Track Good (GoingStick: 8.1 on Friday at 14:15)
Updated @ 2:29pm, Fri 02 Sep

Rails: The Home (Wood) Bend has been dolled-out circa 6 yards from the inside line and the Away (Stables) Bend dolled-out circa 4 yards from inside line. This adds circa 20 yards to standard for the 7f and 8f distances, and circa 30 yards to standard for the 1m4f distance.
Updated @ 3:02pm, Tue 30 Aug

Stalls: Straight Course: Stands’Side Round Course: Inside 1m4f Start: Stands’Side
Updated @ 9:36am, Sun 28 Aug

Weather Dry overnight. Forecast to remain dry until late morning, then a wet afternoon with circa 7-10mm of rain anticipated during racing.
Updated @ 6:45am, Sat 03 Sep

ICONS

§ – Indicates ideally drawn
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

3 – 3-y-o running in all aged handicap

FINAL FIGURESASCOT 2-40 (M-L/H) (2)

* – SCOTTISH GLEN….+15
T§* – HEAVEN’S GUEST….+10
3* – VON BLUCHER….+8
§* – SQUATS….+8
3* – TWIN SAILS….+8
T* – HAWKEYETHENOO….-2
3* – BOBBY WHEELER….-4
3* – YATWEE….-4
§*- DUTCH LAW….-8
* – CHARLES MOLSON….-10
T3* – DAWAA….-10
T3* – MUHADATHAT….-15
T§* – FIRMAMENT….-16
§ – LINCOLN….-25
SUZI’S CONNOISSEUR….-26
* – ICE SLICE….-27
§ – JACK’S REVENGE….-40
H – GHALIB….-40

NOTES: I want to be drawn middle here, no doubt about it. My top rated has stats to die for….3-9 ground, 5-19 trip and 2-4 here….but that draw is a no-no….if I’ve rad this correctly.

I have a pair boxed right….HEAVEN’S GUEST and SQUATS. The first named has three ticks here….1-12 ground, 6-24 trip and 2-12 track, SQUATS is 0-3 trip, which is a concern but is 2-7 ground and 1-6 track.

They have to be in my dutch because of the draw/rating, allied to those stats.

I want a third in, just in case I’m wrong and it’s got to be my top one as the rest in my top six look hamstrung by comparison.

Dutch rated horses 1, 2, 4…my 20/80 gores to HEAVEN’S GUEST and I’ll set up my exotics, too.

ASCOT 4-10 (M/L-H) (2)

§3* – KADRIZZI….+11
§3* – MUSTALIB….+8
T* – NORMANDY BARRIERE….+8
* – ROYAL BIRTH….+6
§* – RIO RONALDO….+5
T§* – OUT DO….+2
T§* – LOUIS THE PIOUS….-2
§* – DOCTOR SARDONICUS….-2
* – MOONRAKER….-2
§ – SIR ROBERT CHEVAL….-4
* – SHAMSON….-10
§ – TOOFI….-17
§ – DOUGAN….-27
MAGNUS MAXIMUS….-31
§ – CARTMELL CLEAVE….-32
§ – SOLAR FLAIR….-35
§ – SPRING LOADED….-40

NOTES: It is only high drawn I’d be wary of here. My top three simply look perfect….statistically lovely, ratings wise superb, two drawn spot on and NORMANDY BARRIERE, my favourite handicapper in training right now, “second best” in a high draw and I’m not looking anywhere else for my play….dutch, 20/80 KADRIZZI, who is 1-2 ground, 2-8 trip and 1-1 here.

It’s a cracking good race….probably the best of the afternoon.

ASCOT 4-45 (2)

* – LIGHT AND SHADE….-8
3 – LAYRINTH….-13
T* – MARGARET’S MISSION….-20
T* – LIL SOPHELLA….-22
T* – HIDDEN REBEL….-29
T3* – COMPANY ASSET….-36
T* – ALEXANDRAKOLLONTAI….-40
3 – ALJULJALAH….-40
3 – MISS CARBONIA….-13

NOTES: The 3-y-o’s have me running for cover here as several are so lightly raced they are impossible to get a grip of. A no bet race for me personally.

ASCOT 5-20 (H-M-L) (3)

* – JUST US TWO….+11
* – FOXY FOREVER….+8
T§* – BASHIBA….+5
§* – SANDFRANKSKIPSGO….-2
T§3* – DAVID’S DUCHESS….-6
§* – MAJESTIC HERO….-8
* – PRINCESS TANSY….-13
3* – PINE RIDGE….-16
STAKE ACCLAIM…-21
TH* – KIBAAR….-21
§3 – DARK SHOT….-25
* – GINZAN….-25
T – DRAGON KING….-40

NOTES: None has won here previously but trip and ground look fine for most. SANDFRANKSKIPSGO is 0-3 here so, is dropped, as is FOXY FOREVER who is just 1-6 ground and 0-5 Ascot.

I’m going to work rated horses 1, 3 and 5 dutch/exotics….as MAJESTIC HERO is 0-2 here and all being well one of my trio will land it, secure the dutch and the profit.

My 20/80 will be BASHIBA. Yet to race here but is 2-15 ground and 8-26 trip, has three icons and is in form.

HAYDOCK 1-50 (2)

TH3* – TRAINNAH….+8
* – IMSHIVALLA….+8
3* – DESSERTOFLIFE….+3
T – ROSENTAL….-13
T3 – ZEST….-16
TH3* – SHAFAFYA….-22
MISS VAN GOGH….-23
T3 – MOTDAW….-40
EMPRESS ALI….-40

NOTES: I am adding no text to the races here as I know what’s coming. It has already started raining on Merseyside and the amount forecast has encouraged Hugo Palmer to take a fine for withdrawing WALPOLE yesterday so that he could run in the race below….I only rated that race to see where that horse rated as it’s in excess of 12 furlongs and I no longer get involved in those but WALPOLE rates high and if the ground does change then you have to give that horse a very serious chance.

We will know after race one how it’s riding and fir possible, I will update the website with text for the 4-00pm race and also send out my own play via the WhatsApp Broadcast Group.

HAYDOCK 3-30 (M-H-L) (2)

§* – INTENSE TANGO….+14
T* – MONTALY….+9
§* – SUEGIOO….+9
§* – SHREWD….+9
T§* – WALPOLE….+8
T§* – EXCELLENT RESULT….+7
T§* – THE TWISLER….-15
GABRIAL’S STAR….-17
T* – MAGIC CIRCLE….-18
ABRIAL THE HERO….-26
MY REWARD….-28
BLUE RAMBLER….-29
T – SHAKOPEE….-33
ANGEL GABRIAL….-40
T – GOLD PRINCE….-40
T – JUSTICE BELLE….-40
TH – GREEN LIGHT….-40

NOTES:

HAYDOCK 4-00 (M-L-H) (2)

T* – DUNGANNON….+10
T3* – LADY MACARA….+9
§* – BOWSON FRED….+9
T* – DUTCH MASTERPIECE….+8
* – ENGLISHMAN….+8
§3 – MICKEY….+7
* – TANGERINE TREES….+3
3* – EL ASTRONAUTE….+1
T* – STEPPER POINT….±0
3* – POWERALLIED….-3
* – RED BARON….-5
§* – SOIE D’LEAU….-10
§* – ROBOT BOY….-11
T§ – KASBAH….-14
CONFESSIONAL….-21
T§ – LIGHTSCAMERACTION….-40
GAMESOME….-40

NOTES:

THIRSK 3-25 (4)

* – SEAMSTER….+10
* – SIGNORE PICCOLO….-8
* – CLUBLAND….-10
MONEY TEAM….-17
KENNY THE CAPTAIN….-26
KOMMANDER KIRKUP….-30
MAGICAL EFFECT….-34
MISSISSIPPI….-40
FYRECRACKER….-40

NOTES: My top rated had only ever really raced on sand until his new trainer took control of David O’Meara’s old yard this season but at the age of nine he’s proved a revelation. Now a 13 race veteran on turf he has won five and placed in seven, on;ly once out of the first three and on that occasion he finished fourth.

Stats are poor here but two of my top three have ground/trip/track fine enough for them and I’ll be looking to work them as they’ve fallen.

THIRSK 5-00 (4)

RESTRAINT OF TRADE….+11
* – PLAY NICELY….+8
H* – HERNADOSHIDEAWAY….+2
* – TAMAYUZ MAGIC….-8
* – CARD HIGH….-15
3* – ICEFALL….-15
* – ALL ABOUT TIME…-18
* – TAPIS LIBRE….-22
* – SWAHEEN….-24
POINTILLISM….-40

NOTES: I just know my top rated is “wrong”….he’s not won a flat race since November 2012 and raced only once since July 2015, when he finished 14th of 17 in a hurdle race at Market Rasen. I’ll work with the three below him and then only to October Rules. Only one previous course winner in here, TAMAYUZ MAGIC and he’s only 1-6.

PLAY NICELY is my solo play, for sure. Very much liking his 3-5 trip stat.

THIRSK 6-05 (4)

* – ROYAL CONNOISSEUR….+9
* – MASS RALLY….+2
MON BRAV….-8
H – MORE BEAU….-18
* – ART OBSESSION….-25
INEXES….-40
GIANT SPARK….-40
STOCKING….-40
MISU MAGIC….-40

NOTES: And again…statistically ultra weak. Only my top rated has won here previously, 1-3, and only three have managed a win on genuine good ground….again my top rated one of them…top pair in fact but they have only won one each from a combined total of 25 races on it.

No more than an October Rules race for me.

Have a great day!

Ron

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