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Sedgefield and Southwell Preview 27/09/16

Ron RobinsonNo surprise to see Ayr call it off. It would have been like a swamp up there and not horse racing we need to be betting on.

Hopefully the Preview throws up a winner or two and I’m quite liking that meeting at Sedgefield. If this had been November the betting boots would have been on fore sure.

I’ll go through that meeting first.

2-00 – SEYMOUR NOVICES´ CHASE (SEDGEFIELD YOUNG CHASER SERIES QUALIFIER) (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £4,549 9 runners 2m77y Good

Genuine good ground…apparently….and the only horse likely to succeed on it is MIXBOY. Currently 1-1 on it, he’s also 1-5 trip and 1-3 track.

The good ground of the rest combined is 4-55. PRINCE KHURAM is cosy regarding trip/track but 0-11 on good ground suggests we ignore it.

The current tissue favourite is CLOSEST FRIEND, from the yard of Dan Skelton. The horse has finished runner up in five of its 13 races to date, winning only one. The trip stat of 0-10 and I’m thinking it’s a ‘sighter” today that will tell Dan where he’s at with his string. He has saddled just one winner from the seven sent out in the last 14 racing days and whilst at first glance the record of trainer/jockey looks superb, it has been achieved over hurdles here. The jockey has also only ridden two novice ‘chasers in the last five years and failed on both.

Keith Dalgleish is 1-1 with ‘chasers here and is one of two trainers in this race with a level stake profit all runners, the other being Malcolm Jefferson, trainer of MAJOR IVAN.

I like the booking of Brian Harding for MIXBOY as he’s 2-4 when riding for Dalgleish in steeplechases and this horse would be my play.

The danger looks to be MAJOR IVAN. Brian Hughes and Malcolm Jefferson team up to great effect here (22% strike rate) and the horse is a previous course winner. Might need a little more juice in the ground, mind, the only win to date coming on good to soft.

POST RACING SELECTION – MIXBOY – STRAIGHT WIN

2-30 – RENEW HOLDINGS NOVICES´ HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £3,769 8 runners 2m3f188y Good

This is a little cracker. Down to seven unfortunately, which is annoying but we’ll see what pops up.

OUR REWARD has stats here that you’d like to see….1-2 ground, 2-2 trip and 2-2 Sedgefield. The trainer has a 67% strike rate with his hurdlers here, and I’m surprised to find it trading third best right now.

I “get” the strength behind KIWAYU as he won nicely last time up and is extremely lightly raced over obstacles but TOP OF THE GLAS has failed over this trip twice before and in nine races over hurdles to date has finished runner up five times and third twice….one win to date.

He was odds on to win a novices maiden last time and won it as he should have done but he’s up in grade here.

I’m thinking this is most certainly between KIWAYU and OUR REWARD. The former has raced here once previously and ran second to another of today’s runners, GRAN PARADISO.

With so much in favour of the current third favourite, I’d have to go 20/80 that one.

POST RACING SELECTION – OUR REWARD – 20/80

3-05 – AMCO RAIL HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) Winner £6,330 6 runners 2m178y Good

I have rated both this and the 3-40….previewing will not be offered for such races as from Saturday.

My figures for this come out so:

* – ALYASAN….+20
* – VENUE….+10
* – THE GREY TAYLOR….+8
* – IFANDBUTWHYNOT….-10
* – KAPSTADT….-15
* – RUSSIAN ROYALE….-21

3-40 – SHEPLEY HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-105) Winner £5,198 8 runners 2m3f65y Good

H* – THE BACKUP PLAN….+9
* – MOUNT VESUVIUS….-3
ARBORETUM….-5
* – GIN COBBLER….-18
SWALEDALE LAD….-28
* – BALLYCOOL….-28
SAFARI JOURNEY….-32
HOPE FOR GLORY….-40

4-15 – BRIAN MAY NOVICES´ HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-100) Winner £3,249 12 runners 2m3f188y Good

Ultra weak from a stats point of view as only THYNE FOR GOLD has won on the going as officially described, none has won over the trip and neither has any of those that have been here before gone home with much of anything….certainly not a win, a collective 0-28 between six of them that have been here before.

The one of some interest is OH SO GIGOLO. Used to be with Nicky Henderson but was sold for peanuts to a yard that can improve strange ones. Henry Brooke has a 44% strike rate here when riding for Slack and whilst I’ll say it’s a no bet race, I’ll be looking to see how that runs, for sure.

4-50 – VHE MARES´ STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (CLASS 6) (4-6yo) Winner £1,949 8 runners 2m178y Good

Pure guesswork these are. The market tells you plenty and I’d be keeping an eye on VIRTUALLY OURS from that angle….trainer is 33% here with Bumper runners over the last five seasons but I’d not be betting here.

Please remember, these are simply NH “sighters”….I’m getting my eye in, just as those top trainers are.

SOUTHWELL

2-20 – PLAY GOLF AT SOUTHWELL CLUB HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-100) Winner £3,249 9 runners 1m7f153y Good

* – LARKHALL….+9
* – ACCESSALLAREAS….+8
* – NO NO CARDINAL….-35
UNIFY….-37
H* – COURT OF LAW….-37
* – NEXT EXIT….-40
FINCH FLYER….-40
YOURHOLIDAYISOVER….-40
HENRY OLIVER….-40

2-55 – DOWNLOAD THE AT THE RACES APP HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-120) Winner £4,549 7 runners 2m4f62y Good

* – EVER SO MUCH….+13
* – VIOLETS BOY….-15
* – OLIVER’S HILL….-27
* – THEATRE MILL….-29
H – THE GEEGEEZ GEEGEE….-40
SUPER SCORPION….-40

5-10 – JOIN AT THE RACES ON FACEBOOK HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-100) Winner £3,249 13 runners 2m4f62y Good

* – SPRING STEEL….-19
* – HI TIDE….-23
H – DEFINITELY GREY….-30
* – PEMBRIDGE….-36
SURFING THE STARS….-37
ANNAMULT….-38
BITTER VIRTUE….-40
BENIDORM….-40
MIDNIGHT MEMORIES….-40
MY ANCHOR….-40
L’ES FREMANTLE….-40
ARCAMANTE….-40

If you use this work for punting only do so to fun money levels of staking.

The 3-30, 4-05 and 4-40 races here have disintegrated to 5, 4 and 5 runner races and would not be previewed from Saturday and I’ve no intention of advising anyone punt such races.

Best of luck

Ron

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