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Brighton and Warwick Previews 29/09/16

Ron RobinsonI’m very wary indeed of the meeting at Brighton.

They kick off with a nine runner nursery in which none of the participants have won on the ground or, more significantly, at the track. The only winner over this trip is REBEL HEART and on his only previous run here was a well beaten second of five.

Of those trainers saddling a runner only Mick Channon has managed to send a juvenile out to win…..he is 5-30 (17% strike rate).

The rest are 0-40 between them.

Channon has booked de Sousa to ride and I’d think it most likely to place, if not win but as for whether I would put hard cash on that, I doubt it very much.

We have an even worse case at 2-20. A juvenile maiden (Class 5), the only horse of any interest at all being the debutante COME ON COME ON.

Clive Cox is 1-2 with juveniles here and Adam Kirby is 4-15 when riding 2-y-o’s for him has a superb 27% strike rate for Cox….4-15. I have absolutely no idea how good, or otherwise, this horse is.

Another race I cannot possibly advise a play of any kind.

2-50 – HERBERT WILLIAM HALL MEMORIAL HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-75) Winner £3,235 12 runners 1m1f209y Good To Firm

Down to 10 as a brace have pulled out.

GANNICUS has a superb 2-3 track record here…but is 0-4 at the trip and just 1-9 on the ground. Add to that trainer form (0-11 in the last 14 days), and the fact the horse has not won for over a year, and you have to think the winner is probably elsewhere in the field. As Timeform says, “claims if able to bounce back”….but you could say that about a few in this grade.

It is like this right through the card and I genuinely believe the best, most sensible thing to do, is look to the NH card at Warwick for a potential play because here I would be guessing, surmising and assuming.

WARWICK

2-00 – RACINGUK.COM “NATIONAL HUNT” NOVICES´ HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £3,574 12 runners 2m Good

The market will tell you that unless ROYAL MANDATE is any use then PETER THE MAYO MAN will be winning this head in chest.

From a stats angle that is the only play you could consider as he’s 2-3 ground, 2-6 trip and nothing else in here has won on the ground, nor over the trip.

Taking odds on in novice events is not for me and I’ll just watch.

2-30 – DAFFERNS 1896 MAIDEN HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £3,574 7 runners 2m5f Good

Much is going to depend on which of these can jump.

WHOLESTONE is the only previous winner on genuine good ground and the yard is already tanking along nicely….they always do early doors of any season (currently 7-27 in the last 14 days), and only the Bowen yard is doing as well right now….they send out ALF ‘N’ DOOR….and this something that has been picked up by the market and the pair trade clear 1st and 2nd favourite right now.

one has not run for 306 days, the other for 237….but long absences account for the entire field bar WESTERN WAVE and INFORMALITY, who has trundled over from Jersey.

Another race I will just watch as until they’ve jumped in public and shown they can, I’m not interested in them.

I have four races rated and a couple I have looked at for you.

3-05 – LODDERS SOLICITORS HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-110) Winner £3,899 8 runners 2m4f Good

* – THE SNAPPY POET….+14
* – FOUNDATION MAN….+10
BRICE CANYON….+9
* – BADGERS RETREAT….+8
KING’S SONG….-9
HIGH ASPIRATIONS….-20
ARCTIC BEN….-28
CHARLIE MON….-40

HIGH ASPIRATIONS trades 4.2 favourite right now but I see more reasons to lay than to play, not least the 0-2 ground and 0-1 track stats, he rates low here.

I would be much keener to support one of the three with the * icon if this were November.

Right now it’s as much to do with stable form as anything so on that score and the only trainer have saddled a winner in the last 14 days is Jonjo O’Neill….he saddles FOUNDATION MAN who has not won for two years.

A race I’d rather lay the favourite and not play….if this were November!

3-40 – IGNITE INCENTIVES HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-130) Winner £6,498 7 runners 2m Good

* – BARMAN….+11
* – MISS ESTELA….+10
* – SATANIC BEAT….+9
T* – HAWAIIAN FREEZE….+5
CRICKET WOOD….+4
NICE THOUGHTS….±0
* – NORTHERN MEETING….-23

Very happy with my figures here and even now I feel the winner is in my top three rated horses.

The market suggests I have the correct top rated and with ground/trip stats reading 2-6 and 3-6 respectively, I imagine BARMAN will be running a big race for a yard 1-3 in the last 14 days.

MISS ESTELLA is 2-2 on the ground and 4-6 trip. Never raced here before but if she handles the track and the absence doesn’t cost her, I would expect a big run. However, her last three seasonal debut runs suggest she does need one….5, 3, 0….so SATANIC BEAT, 4-14 ground, 4-19 trip and 1-1 track might prove the biggest danger.

POST RACING SELECTION – BARMAN – STRAIGHT WIN

4-10 – COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RATING DIVISION HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) Winner £7,148 6 runners 3m Good

* – VELATOR….+12
* – READY TOKEN….+11
* – BENZEL….±0
HORSEHILL….-18
FOLLOW THE SWALLOW….-26
H – NO BUTTS….-40

If the winner is outside my top three, even at this stage of the season, I’ll be stunned.with my top rated 0-10 at the trip I would have to drop it and work with rated horses 2 & 3….they look the right pair and I’m preferring READY TOKEN as he comes here with three ticks….ground/trip/track and the yard are a more than healthy 4-14 in the last 14 racing days.

POST RACING SELECTION – READY TOKEN – STRAIGHT WIN

4-45 – RACING UK PROFITS RETURNED TO RACING HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-115) Winner £3,574 11 runners 2m5f Good

* – SOUPY SOUPS….+10
* – FARAWAY MOUNTAIN….+8
DEAUVILLE DANCER….+7
* – COME ON LAURIE….+5
VIVAS….+4
* – QUEBEC….-14
H – KID KALANISI….-31
* – WILDMOOR BOY….-31
* – BREAKING BITS….-40
MAHLERS STAR….-40
AMERICAN LIFE….-40

Statistically as weak as a kitten. Nothing has won more than one race on genuine good ground, only a pair have succeeded previously over this trip and the two that have raced here before are 0-4 between them.

It’s a race that come the time we get out betting boots back out we’d play only to October Rules.

My top rated is 1-2 on the ground and would appear to be a relatively safe 20/80

POST RACING SELECTION – SOUPY SOUPS – 20/80

Best of luck

Ron

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