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Bath and Ffos Las Previews 11/09/16

Ron RobinsonThe Preview produced a couple of lovely winner at Bath yesterday, 17/2 and 7/1, from just four bets advised and hopefully we can do the same today.

Silvestre de Sousa has a full book of rides here today and it could be he does what Crowley did at Lingfield yesterday.

BATH

2-05 – SOMERSET ARMY CADET FORCE HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo 0-65) Winner £2,556 10 runners 5f11y Good To Soft

A now nine runner race in the absence of KIRINGA. I would have had that one down as a contender here and her absence in this Class 6 only really strengthens the hand of DAVID’S BEAUTY.

Right now she is the only previous winner in this field, on good to soft. She is one of just four of the nine to have won over the trip and that they’ve seen fit to get the same guy to ride this time as did when they teamed up to win at Beverley recently, suggests they fancy doubling up.

It’s a Class 6 for 3-y-o’s and who really knows if they arrive fancying it or not but with this filly in form I’ll go 20/80.

De Sousa rides a longstanding Channon maiden in this SHINE LIKEADIAMOND, and whilst constant enough, you’d definitely be concerned about the fact she’s finished second eight times from 17 starts on both turf and sand. That would make her one for forecast punters though!

POST RACING PLAY – DAVID’S BEAUTY – 20/80

2-40 – SOMERSET SOLDIERS´ CHARITY HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-80) Winner £5,175 12 runners 2m1f34y Good To Soft

A marathon over two miles and a furlong, on good to soft, ground on which only two of this lot have succeeded previously….SEE AND BE SEEN/FITZWILLY.

That pair also boast “three ticks” relating to ground/trip/track and the first named is actually 2-7 here.

TEAK and WORDINESS are both 1-1 trip, 1-1 track but how will either handle today’s ground? Neither has previously raced on it.

De Sousa rides the favourite here, KLEITOMACHOS, whose recent win on the flat was it’s first since 2012.

Not a race I’m interested in myself and we’ll move on.

3-15 – CONTROL DEVELOPMENTS HANDICAP (SUMMER SPRINT SERIES FINAL) (CLASS 3) (3yo+) Winner £12,938 17 runners 5f161y Good To Soft

I was half tempted to rate this but resisted….it’s a big field, Class 3, offering a near £13k prize and all will be “off”.

The norm here is to look to middle drawn runners. I prefer them to low drawn, high looking to be pulling an anchor.

Those drawn 6-12 inclusive are on my radar:

VINCENTTI
BABYFACT
DREAMS OF GLORY
DUSTY BLUE
ESSAKA
GO AMBER GO
TOPSOIL

I’m going to pluck from this lot only those having winning form on good to soft. It may well dry out to good in which case you either walk away or look to see which are best suited to that slightly quicker ground.

VINCENTTI – 3/8
DREAMS OF GLORY – 1/3
DUSTY BLUE – 1/3
TOPSOIL – 1-2

VINCENTTI is 0-4 here and just 3-39 trip. DREAMS OF GLORY is just 1-20 trip and only 2-18 track. DUSTY BLUE has three good looking ticks….2-9 trip and a glowing 2-5 track, whilst TOPSOIL is 0-1 trip and 1-2 track.

Given the ‘facts” I’ll suggest a 20/80 DUSTY BLUE.

POST RACING PLAY – DUSTY BLUE – 20/80

3-45 – BOEING DEFENCE UK CONDITIONS STAKES (CLASS 3) (3yo+) Winner £7,763 5 runners 1m5y Good To Soft

Down to just four runners and no use to me.

4-20 – MBDA HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-75) Winner £3,235 15 runners 1m2f46y Good To Soft

I’ll look at this race in exactly the same way I did the 3-15.

Draw again looks set to influence the result. Here though I’m inclined to think low might just have a tight advantage over middle…high don’t look to suffer as much here but it’s still not looking rosy.

Rated horses 1-6 then:

HUNGERFORD
MISTER MUSICMASTER
MOLTEN LAVA
CHANTECLER
PANKO
RIDE THE LIGHTNING

None has won on good to soft but then only BEREKELY VALE OF ALL RUNNERS HAS! He’s 1-1 on it and drawn middle.

Stats here are about as useful as a one armed man in a juggling competition to be honest and therefore it’s not one that’s now telling me to get the shekels out.

However, one of interest from that group is RIDE THE LIGHTNING.

He was purchased for £30k from Brian Meehan’s yard and gelded. He’s racing for a trainer we’ll know nothing about but that might be about to change.

A 3-y-o having his first run against his elders and the jockey having a superb record around this track. I’ve watched his Ripon race back and he ran well that day, beaten just over two lengths.

He’s just doing an awful lot of winking and I’m going in 20/80.

PANKO is most definitely a “live one”. This race is only four years old but Ed de Giles has won it twice from just three runners….another for dutch/exotic players!

POST RACING PLAY – DUTCH PANKO/RIDE THE LIGHTNING – 20/80 RIDE THE LIGHTNING – EXOTIC SAME TWO

4-55 – SERCO ARMED FORCES GOLD COVENANT CUP NURSERY HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (2yo 0-75) Winner £3,235 7 runners 1m2f46y Good To Soft

A six runner Nursery. This race has a little history having been run three times to date. The favourite has been successful on the last two occasions and with Silvestre having been booked to ride the Cole “shortie” COUNT CALABASH, I’m thinking it’ll be three from four.

POST RACING PLAY – COUNT CALABASH – STRAIGHT WIN

5-30 – PRESIDENTS´ RACE HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo 0-65) Winner £2,727 11 runners 1m5f22y Good To Soft

The last race on the card. A Class 6 3-y-o handicap…you can tell they were thinking about me, can’t you!

The only good thing I can find to say about this is that when Roger Charlton put Twiston-Davies p on one of his here, they have a more than decent 27% strike rate.

The trainer has a brilliant record with his runners here, too….15-56 over the last five seasons and a 24% record with 3-y-o’s.

I see no point in opposing those stats and will suggest a small 20/80 PURE VANITY.

POST RACING PLAY – PURE VANITY – 20/80

The meeting at Ffos Las is falling apart due to soft ground and I’m inclined to suggest we don’t even look at punting there.

Have a great day

Ron

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