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Windsor preview 27/08/16

Ron RobinsonAbsolutely delighted for Tony Davidson whose football punditry is outstanding. I hope you all got on.

I’m looking to cover all races at a meeting no longer considered to be profitable enough for rating and will try to make it as interesting for you as possible, even if no advice is offered for betting.

You will hopefully have enough data to enable you to make your own decision whether bet or not.

I have in mind a format and this will be tinkered with between now and the beginning of October.

4-15 – BATHWICK TYRES SUPPORTS HEROS MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo) Winner £2,911 16 runners 6f Good To Firm

A 15 runner juvenile event, seven of which make debut. History suggests a high draw is required over middle, low least likely to succeed, so I’ll work with that.

That therefore excludes those trading shortest in the current betting, SEA SHACK and SAKURAJIMA.

I’m therefore looking to one of GRACIOUS TOM or GRAPHITE STORM for a play. The trainers of both have cracking good records with their juveniles at Windsor, Cox 17% and Evans 21% over the last five seasons.

Adam Kirby has ridden 26 winners from 194 rides on 2-y-o’s for Cox, whilst Tom Marquand is 2-7 for David Evans.

Both have racecourse experience but I’m mindful that GRACIOUS TOM needs just one more run for a mark and if I were to play here, it would be a 20/80 GRAPHITE STORM.

4-50 – GENTING CASINOS SOUTHERN FILLIES´ HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-75) Winner £2,911 8 runners 1m67y Good To Firm

Seven now go to post and with six of them 3-yo’s, most hard to evaluate, and the only real way in is statistically.

Roger Varian trains the favourite, OWASEYF and his 20% strike rate with such horses here is 20%, as is that of henry Candy, who trains NICARRA.

Varian though targets races here and his superb level stake profit of +19.21 is superb.

I expect OWASEYF to provide him with another winner here today.

5-25 – TORI “BIG 4 ALTERNATIVE” SUPPORTS HEROS HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) Winner £4,690 8 runners 1m67y Good To Firm

I have been waiting for WIND IN MY SAILS to race again since he bolted up in first time head gear last time out at Newbury.

Ed de Giles has a +10.00 level stake profit here with 4+ year olds but I felt he needed to be aiming at a strong pace last time up. I don’t see that here?

I cannot get a handle on the three times raced handicap debutante JUSTICE SMART, trained by Sir Michael store and ridden by Ryan Moore. For that reason I will leave this alone.

6-00 – WINTER HILL STAKES (GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £34,026 6 runners 1m2f7y Good To Firm

Just the six runners but you can only rule out two of them. Two of them stand out statistically

CHAIN OF DAISIES is 3-4 on the ground, 5-8 over the trip whilst ULYSSES is 1-1 ground, 1-2 trip.

All of the filly’s winning has been done in lower grade and I fully expect Sir Michael and Ryan Moore going home with first prize.

6-35 – SRI LANKA AUGUST STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £20,983 8 runners 1m3f135y Good To Firm

They have a good class card on here tonight and this is a decent little Listed event.

Profiling this is interesting. Six of the last 10 winners were four year olds and the winner generally trades no bigger than 9/2.

Only one favourite has managed to win this in the last 10 years and it’s generally the 2nd or 3rd favourite that takes it.

That makes TASHAAR very interesting and with no other way in here, I’ll suggest the Hannon horse 20/80.

7-05 – IRISH THOROUGHBRED MARKETING SUPPORTS HEROS HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-70) Winner £2,911 6 runners 1m3f135y Good To Firm

only five going to post now and of no interest at all to me from a punting perspective. If the “norm” produces the winner then I’d be hoping to see Hannon celebrating another winner as his NOT TOUCH is the best way to go from the limited evidence that four previous provides.

Three year olds have won three of the four renewals of this, the last three in fact and Hannon has saddled the winner and a placed horse from the two he has entered for it.

7-35 – NORTH FARM STUD HOME OF HEROS CHARITY HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-80) Winner £4,690 10 runners 6f Good To Firm

Half the field are 3-y-o’s and I’m already reaching for the Crucifix and garlic.

SECRET LOOK loves this place….2-3 here and FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN is 1-2. Between them though they are 0-3 on the ground.

The one horse with three ticks is ICE AGE but it’s not a convincing profile….1-4 ground, 1-8 trip and 1-3 here.

INCLINATION would be the horse on trip….3-7 and he’s also 1-2 ground. He has raced here once before….second last time up….I’d not hold that against the horse and if pushed, would suggest a 20/80 the Cox runner.

MY BETS

OWAYSEYF (4-50) – STRAIGHT WIN
ULYSSES (6-00) – STRAIGHT WIN
TASHAAR (6-35) – 20/80

Best of luck

Ron

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