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Today’s Ratings and Advice 20/08/16

Ron RobinsonI found it totally bizarre this morning that all tracks had updated the weather reports for their tracks but until 6-55am, none had updated their going stick readings.

Sandown posted up first, at that time but York advised, despite their weather guide being updated before 6-30am, that they would not be doing the same for their going reading until 8-00am….7-57am, they did so.

As I type….9-40am….Chester still advise they are good to firm, that reading having been taken at 6-00am yesterday but, believe me, we’ve had some seriously heavy rain in this area and their is no way they are still good to firm.

Below you have my figures for York and Sandown but I’ve been unable to finalise the figures for Chester. If they do provide me with a going description I trust, and I have time to finalise them, you will also have my ratings for the 3-50pm and 4-25pm races.

I will now post them up on the website and add text to them, updating as I go so you can read them as they are finalised.

You also have the Ebor Profiling that went up on the website last night.

It’s wholly unsatisfactory for a Saturday but unfortunately completely out of my control.

JUST RECEIVED….

E-mails are coming through from members asking what time this will be going out but, I also just received this and I’m now buzzing….and will put the kettle on to celebrate once this goes out.

Have a read…it’s brilliant….thank you very much to the sender, it is very much appreciated!

“Hi Ron.

Hope all is good with you. As usual, your ratings and advice are knocking the “pros” out of the water.

I signed up for the Ebor special because I thought I had a few quiet days at work (I didn’t as it turned out) and I just wish I had the time to follow you every day. Maybe one of these days I’ll quit and turn “pro” myself 🙂

On the first day I rushed to get the bets on during my breakfast break. Didn’t have time to check them all day but when I checked the acc that evening I had 2k on it. I put everything you said into an e/w accumulator and some tidy bets on your main advice. It was the biggest day I had since you gave me that big 4fold 2 years ago.

Stuck 500 on Meccas Angel when you said that about the ground and also told my brother (starting his own business this week) to get on. Now he doesn’t have to take wages for a couple of weeks 😉

Work will be getting a little quieter in the next month or so, so I’ll have more time on my hands and I’ll sign back up with you full time.

It’s a real pleasure to get this kind of information from an absolute gentleman. Normally the guys with the info and the smarts are, excuse my language, self indulgent assholes.”

ASSUMPTIONS:
York / Sat 20 Aug
First Race: 1:45 pm Going/Track Good (GoingStick: overall 6.8. Homestraight readings – farside 6.9; centre 6.9; standside 6.8. Wind direction and speed S 20mph with gusts on Saturday at 08:00)
Updated @ 7:57am, Sat 20 Aug

Rails: Rail alignment for Ebor Saturday – rail realigned onto inner track on home bend from 9f to entrance to home straight reducing official race distances. Race 1 – 10f reduced by 32 yards; Race 2 – 9f reduced by 31 yards; Race 3 – 14f reduced by 32 yards; Race 4 – 6f no change; Race 5 – 14f reduced by 32 yards; Race 6 and race 7 – 5f no change.
Updated @ 5:23am, Sat 20 Aug

Stalls: Stalls positions for Ebor Festival: 5f and 6f two year old only races – farside; 5f and 6f for three year olds and up – centre; remainder – inside rail.
Updated @ 5:23am, Sat 20 Aug

Weather 4mms rain to 6pm Friday 19th plus a further 3mm Friday night making 7mm in last 24 hours. Saturday has dawned dry, clear skies and fresh. Met office forecast: Saturday – clouding over, wind picking up and brighter spells and chance of a passing shower. Afternoon – mixture of sunshine and showers, 18 degrees.
Updated @ 7:57am, Sat 20 Aug

Sandown Park / Sat 20 Aug
First Race: 1:55 pm Going/Track Round Course – Good, Good to Firm in places Sprint Course – Good to Firm, Good in places (GoingStick: Round 7.4 Sprint 7.5 on Friday at 11:00)
Updated @ 6:55am, Sat 20 Aug

Rails: Sprint Course at full width. Round Course on innermost configuration around home bend then 3 yards out up home straight. Adds 3 yards to Round distances.
Updated @ 6:55am, Sat 20 Aug

Stalls: Sprint Course – Far side (full width) Round Course – Inside
Updated @ 4:44pm, Mon 15 Aug

Weather 2mm rain Friday. Dry overnight into Saturday. Blustery day on Saturday with chance of isolated showers.
Updated @ 6:55am, Sat 20 Aug

Chester / Sat 20 Aug
First Race: 2:05 pm Going/Track Good, Good to Firm in Places (GoingStick: 7.8 on Friday at 06:00)
Updated @ 9:43am, Sat 20 Aug

Rails: The running rail is on the very inside meaning all race distances will be as advertised.
Updated @ 9:48am, Wed 17 Aug

Stalls: All races – Inside
Updated @ 9:48am, Wed 17 Aug

Weather 6mm of rain on Friday and a further 2mm since 6am. Forecast: Light rain between 6am and 8am followed by a few hours of dry weather till the threat of showers returns for the afternoon. Daytime high of 18c with strong winds.
Updated @ 9:43am, Sat 20 Aug

Bath / Sat 20 Aug
First Race: 5:10 pm Going/Track Firm (GoingStick: 10.3 on Saturday at 06:30)
Updated @ 7:13am, Sat 20 Aug

Rails: 10 yds need to be added to races that travel around the bottom bend into the homestraight.
Updated @ 6:37am, Wed 10 Aug

Stalls: 5f, 5.5f & 2m1f – Centre 1m2f, 1m3f & 1m – Inside 1m 5f- outside
Updated @ 6:39am, Sat 20 Aug

Weather 7mm Friday 3mm overnight Forecast: Forecast – Generally unsettled and very blustery with outbreaks of showers Poss up to 10mm through the day Max temps 15c
Updated @ 6:39am, Sat 20 Aug

ICONS

§ – Indicates ideally drawn
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)
3 – 3-y-o running in all aged handicap

FINAL FIGURES

YORK 1-45 (L-M-H) (2)

3* – MOHAB….+14
§ – CHANCERY….+6
* – STIPULATE….-3
* – IMSHIVALLA….-4
T – MASTER OF IRONY….-5
* – POLAR FOREST….-7
T* – DARK RED….-8
§* – SENNOCKIAN STAR….-10
* – AFONSO DE SOUSA….-10
§3* – MONTSARRAT….-14
* – ERIK THE RED….-16
§3* – BATHOS….-19
T§ – BATTALION….-20
§3 – ODE TO EVENING….-21
T – FALLEN FOR A STAR….-21
SNOANO….-25
* – AWAKE MY SOUL….-25
T§* – SCARLET DRAGON….-40

NOTES: SNOANO is 1-1 at York but 0-3 ground, 0-4 trip….if is good to soft though, he’d be climbing my ratings and a winner twice on it. The problem is, we’ll only truly know after this event.

My top rated represents Kevin Ryan, whose horses are in decent nick. Only seven races to date he’s come out top on my figures and for a 3-y-o that’s significant.

He is 1-2 on good ground but 0-2 here, although I do not hold juvenile runs against any horse. He ran TASHWEEQ a run for his money in a listed race at doncaster on his last run of his 2-y-o career and following two trips down south to take in a couple of hot ones, he’ll find this easier.

CHANCERY is 0-10 on good ground and another that will appreciate some ease. I honestly wish I knew what they were genuinely racing on but I’m honestly thinking the rain must have done something…7mm doesn’t do nothing.

The O’Meara horse is the best drawn in my top six and in my dutch with MOHAB.

The third horse coming in is IMSHIVALLA. He’s the only runner in here with three ticks and whilst hard to win with, he’s capable of doing so.

Dutch, 20/80 MOHAB and exotics.

YORK 4-00 (M-L-H) (2)

T – TOP TUG….+17
TH* – BATTERSEA….+13
T* – SHE’S NO LADY….+8
T* – KINEMA….+8
§* – SHREWD….+6
T* – ANTIQUARIUM….+3
T§* – VENT DE FORCE….+3
T* – THE TWISLER….-5
* – SEAMOUR….-8
§* – SIR CHAUVELIN….-9
T* – FUN MAC….-10
T* – HEARTBREAK CITY….-10
T§* – QUICK JACK….-12
T* – TAWDEEA….-14
§* – ORIENTAL FOX….-15
T* – OCEANOGRAPHER….-23
T§ – ELIDOR….-30
T* – SEISMOS….-30
T§ – HAVANA BEAT….-33
T – BALLYNANTY….-40

NOTES: The Profile horse and my top rated are one and the same…scary!

As you know, I do not “rate” this kind of race normally and would much rather trust to my profiling.

I have dutched that trio suggested down below and placed 2 x 20/80’s now, including SHREWD to that earlier one on TOP TUG.

PROFILING:

I stopped rating races in excess of 12 furlongs a little while ago now but tomorrow I’ll provide figures for this one so we can compare and contrast figure/ratings.

A great shame they’ve pulled out IVAN GROZNY as hopes were high hew would enhance the page of SAM I by winning this. Unfortunately he pulled out lame so, we wait for another day with that one.

Age grouping first….seven of the last 10 winners were aged 5+ so it’s not a shortlist as such we kick off with but, it’s a list!

ELIDOR
BATTERSEA
KINEMA
VENT DE FORCE
ORIENTAL FOX
SEISMOS
HEARTBREAK CITY
SEAMOUR
QUICK JACK
FUN MAC
SHREWD
TOP TUG
HAVANA BEAT

Down to 14 of the 20 currently going to post.

From the point of view of wight being carried the best stat will be continued whatever wins because nothing is carrying less than 9st….only three of the last 10 winners have carried less than that.

So, next port of call is tissue. Much here is going to depend on the ground. The shortest priced winner in the last five years was TIGER CLIFF….5/1….(the youngest horse to win in that five year period, too), but that came on soft.

The “norm” is a horse winning at a price that makes this impossible for form students to fathom!

The last two winners came home 33/1 and 20/1….the other side of TIGER CLIFF….12/1, 25/1, 14/1, 25/1 and in 2006 a 100/1 shot took it.

Before I go any further, when checking SP’s of the last gazillion winners I also noted that since 1994, only one winner has actually carried more than 9st 4lb so we’ll prune a few more from that initial list:

SHREWD (16)
TOP TUG (18.5)
HAVANA BEAT (40)

Crikey, down to just three on that basis!

In brackets there I have indicated their respective price on betfair as I type. I would certainly be happy to set up a dutch based on age, weight and price but looking for a solo play then it would have to be TOP TUG.

Five year olds are the dominant age group with seven wins in the last 14 years and hopefully Alan King has him fit and firing tomorrow.

His only win on the flat, on turf, came on good to soft so the rain shouldn’t bother him

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE

TOP TUG – 20/80

SANDOWN 3-40 (2)

* – BERMONDSEY….+8
* – SHELL BAY….+8
* – BLUE SURF….-6
3* – BAYDAR….-13
* – MASTER OF THE WORLD….-14
* – MUFFRI’ HA….-15
* – GOODWOOD MIRAGE….-18
T* – REVOLUTIONIST….-18
T* – FIRE FITHING….-26
WHAT ABOUT CARLO….-40
SCRUTINISE….-40
OASIS FANTASY….-40

NOTES: That lone 3-y-o is currently trading favourite and you can totally understand why. He is unbeaten at the trip (202) but has never raced on this ground, nor at this track.

He has only raced four times on turf so his rating is very high for such a horse and he’s won on good to firm, good to soft and sand. Will he take to Sandown?

My top rated is 1-2 here….big plus. He is 1-1 on good ground….loving it and, he’s 1-3 trip. That has to be my 20/80.

SHELL BAY is 1-3 ground and 1-4 trip and if this favourite falls down I’ll hopefully pick up a profit off my dutch, top two. He too has never raced here so my top rated is my main play.

SANDOWN 4-15 (L-M-H) (3)

§* – STEPPER POINT….+11
T* – SECRET ASSET….+10
* – FOXY FOREVER….+10
§* – SHAMSON….+10
T§* – ZIGGY LEE….±0
EXCELLENT GEORGE….-3
T§* – SOIE D’LEAU….-9
* – SON OF AFRICA….-13
* – SHIPYARD….-18
T – CARTMELL CLEAVE….-39
T – GAMESOME….-40
ELYSIAN FLYER….-40

NOTES: Stats are pretty weak here and my top rated is 0-2 here. However, only two of these have winning form at Sandown….SHAMSON 1-1, SECRET ASSET 1-2….the first named of that pair is 4-8 trip and 1-4 ground and having had just 10 runs on turf to date and being unexposed by comparison to my top one, he’s my 20/80.

I’m going to place a dutch rated horses 1, 4 and 5 if possible because ZIGGY LEE has a 2-6 ground, 2-12 trip record. His on e run here resulted in 12th placing of 16 runners but, he was only beaten around six lengths on soft ground….his last few wins have come on good to firm and this will suit better today.

Exotics, same three.

SANDOWN 4-50 (L-M-H) (4)

T§ – UNISON….+15
§* – WIND IN MY SAILS….+8 – NR
OUTBACK RULER….-9
* – CRICKLEWOOD GREEN….-11 – NR
T§3 – ABAREEQ….-14
* – BIOTIC….-15
HUNGERFORD….-15
3 – BERNIE’S BOY….-17
§3 – HENSHAW….-37 – NR
3 – BAG OF DIAMONDS….-40
3 – PHILADELPHIA….-40
3 – JUSTICE LASS….-40

NOTES: Three of these have been pulled and it renders my draw bias null and void. My figures now suggest on UNISON can win this so, I’ll just have a 20/80.

He certainly has the stats to back up that Rating….2-8 ground, 3-14 trip and 1-2 here.

SANDOWN 5-25 (4)

* – CROQUEMBOUCHE….+10 – NR
* – INNISCASTLE LAD….+4
* – LAURENCE….-6
3* – FROZEN FORCE….-13 – NR
T* – ICEBUSTER….-19
* – PINK RIBBON….-21
MAN LOOK….-25
* – FRANCO’S SECRET….-29
3 – PURE ART….-40
RYDAN….-40
PERCEIVED….-40

NOTES: Frustratingly I’ve lost two of my top four. It’s far to late to be doing anything else with this race so I’ll just work with my “top two”…dutch, 20/80 INNISCASTLE LAD and an exotic.

The biggest issue is the change of going and for that reason staking will be to my minimum here.

Have a great day!

Ron

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