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Today’s Ratings and Advice 15/08/16

Ron RobinsonToday I’ll be obtaining the IBAN and BIC numbers required for our Ireland based members to use for BACS transfers, and they’ll be able to purchase their raffle tickets!

Please make sure you transfer in sterling though!

I was looking back over results recently before the Liverpool match kicked off to see what, if anything, might be causing the issue of top rated horses stalling right now and for sure, it’s the 3-y-o factor.

In races where 3-y-o’s are numerous we are struggling. Look at how well the figures performed in those big field handicaps on Saturday….in the three from ripon, not a single 3-y-o and the figures were superb.

At Doncaster, the 2-05 aside (which actually produced a superb result for me personally), the 3-45 and 4-20 had just one representative from the the younger brigade between them.

In those smaller field races (Newbury 4-45, Newmarket 5-35, Ripon 2-20), we had 21 runners in total, of which 13 were 3-y-o’s. All three races were won by horses from that age group, none of which I could rate higher than third on my numbers.

It’s not rocket science working out that perhaps races of that kind should be left to the needy and greedy because they are impacting badly on our profitability.

I’m having my annual diabetic eye test today so won’t be doing much of anything for a couple of hours after that and tomorrow I’m taking my grandkids to Tatton Park but, on Wednesday I’m going to look back at all rated races from August 1st to see what impact those pesky youngsters have had and if it’s obvious they’ve caused us an issue then I’ll be looking to stop working with such races.

Sometimes it’s glaringly obvious a 3-y-o is going to win a rated race, as was the case yesterday with REGAL MONARCH, who rated second best, beating the other 3-y-o in that seven runner race, clear daylight back to the older horses.

In the 5-20 race we originally had seven of the 13 runner race aged three. We then saw three taken out, two of them 3-y-o’s which negated the draw bias for a start.

The race was won by one of those youngsters that had now sneaked into my top six, GIN IN THE INN. This horse had not even placed since it’s juvenile days, not won since he did so on debut, on good to soft, was badly drawn in the first instance and impossible to rate any higher.

Three of the first four home were 3-y-o’s, including the 20/1 shot MON BEAU VISAGE, another that had not won since debut, and that had been beaten a total of 28 lengths in it’s last two runs going into yesterday’s race.

These horses are absolutely impossible to rate accurately.

TODAY

Today we have some really good racing at Thirsk. The first of the three races is the only one I’m going to play myself and, therefore, the only one that has text added.

In the 4-45 and 5-15 we have three year olds and I’m experimenting.

A preview of Windsor will go up on the website this morning and news of the plethora of new packages that will be available from the end of next month will be going out to you all today.

There will be something for absolutely everyone, a mix of racing, football and lay advice, both racing and football, with other sports to follow.

I’ll also be explaining what we’ll be doing with your subscription fees, too. As you know, this has never been about anyone at my end getting rich off my work and the money will be working on your behalf, as always.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Thirsk / Mon 15 Aug
First Race: 2:15 pm Going/Track Good, Good to Soft in places (GoingStick: 7.6 on Friday at 09:30)
Updated @ 7:40am, Sat 13 Aug

Rails: Home Bend dolled-out by circa 8 yards, which adds approximately 25 yards to the standard distances for all races of 7f and upwards. Additionally, circa half of the Away Bend is dolled out from the Winning Line onwards adding an additional circa 5 yards to the standard distance for the 1M4F Start, therefore making this distance circa 30 yards longer than standard overall.
Updated @ 10:40am, Sat 06 Aug

Stalls: Straight Course & 1M4F Start: Stands’Side Round Course: Inside
Updated @ 10:40am, Sat 06 Aug

Weather Fair weekend and fair forecast for Monday.
Updated @ 11:36am, Sun 14 Aug

Windsor / Mon 15 Aug
First Race: 5:30 pm Going/Track Good to Firm, Good in Places.(Watered) (GoingStick: 8.2 on Sunday at 08:30)
Updated @ 8:55am, Sun 14 Aug

Rails: All inner running rail has been moved for this race meeting, to produce fresh racing ground. Inner of straight is at normal inner configuration, making the straight maximum width. Top bend is dolled out 6yds from normal inner configuration, adding 20yds to race distances of 1m+
Updated @ 10:36am, Fri 12 Aug

Stalls: 1m 2f 7yds & 1m 3f 135yds:- Centre. Remainder:- Inside.
Updated @ 8:34am, Tue 09 Aug

Watering: Watered to maintain. 5mm applied on Wednesday. 5mm applied on Thursday. 5mm applied on Friday. 5mm applied Saturday. No further plans to water.
Updated @ 8:55am, Sun 14 Aug

Weather Dry overnight. Sunday: dry and mainly cloudy with a few bright intervals later 21c. Monday:- dry and cloudy start, brightening through the day with a sunny afternoon and evening forecast 22c.
Updated @ 8:55am, Sun 14 Aug

ICONS

§ – Indicates ideally drawn
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)
3 – 3-y-o running in all aged handicap

FINAL FIGURES

THIRSK 3-45 (M/H-L) (4)

§ – KOMMANDER KIRKUP….+17
§* – SEAMSTER….+16
* – BONDI BEACH BOY….+11
* – SINGEUR….+8
§ – FREDRICKA….+8
* – SOUL BROTHER….+8
§* – FLASH CITY….+8
§* – SAVANNAH BEAU….+8
§* – APRICOT SKY….+5
§* – SILVANUS….+3
§* – STANGHOW….-8
T – STAR CRACKER….-23

NOTES: Not a 3-y-o in sight! Loving it already!

My top rated, whilst 2-5 here and 1-2 at the trip, is 0-7 on genuine good ground. Just two career wins from 18 runs to date, he’s won on soft and good to firm. His second win here came in April of this year when he won over six furlongs on soft ground @ 40/1.

Statistically BONDI BEACH BOY is the mutts! His 3-7 track stat and 12-38 trip allied to his 20% strike rate on genuine good ground, added to his third spot on my figures mean he’s in my dutch, minimum!

SEAMSTER is in rare form right now, has three ticks, second spot on my figures and I’d be a few bricks short of a wall not to have him onside, too.

SINGEUR is 0-4 track since winning here in 2011 and just 1-16 ground. Add 3-39 trip and you have to think no, not him for my third in the dutch/exotics, despite him being in decent form.

FREDRICKA….0-8 ground, 5-36 trip suggest he’s one to leave despite his 1-3 track stat.

SOUL BROTHER is the third I’m working with. The 2-7 ground, 1-1 track and 3-14 trip stats are superb and looking to work with the trio I am, I have three x CD winners onside and I’m happy with my figures, how I’ve read it so, that’s how I’ll play it…dutch rated horses 2, 3, 6…exotics…20/80 SEAMSTER.

THIRSK 4-45 (6)

* – MOON OVER RIO….+9
* – MCVICAR….+8
3* – HIGH ON LIGHT….+8
* – LEAN ON PETE….-14
* – GRACEFUL ACT….-26
* – CAVALIERI….-27
3 – L’APOGEE….-31
WHITCHURCH….-40
BEST BOY….-40
BRIDEY’S LETTUCE….-40
3 – ADHERENCE….-40
CALLIOPE….-40
T – TAMUJIN….-40

THIRSK 5-15 (H-M-L) (4)

§* – TRINITY STAR….+10
§* – NONNO GUILIO….+9
3* – FIREDANSER….+4
* – MYSTIC MIRAAJ….+3
DUTCH ARTIST….+1
* – WOODY BAY….-8
FAVOURITE TREAT…-12
SHOURANOUR….-13
§* – SOVEREIGN BOUNTY….-17
* – RALPHY BOY….-18
3* – LE ROI DU TEMPS….-19
§ – DARRINGTON….-20
H – HANSEATIC….-32
§ – THORNABY NASH….-34
TERHAAL….-34
T§ – WESTERN WAY….-40

Have a great day!

Ron

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