Breaking News
Home / Today's Newsletter / Today’s Ratings and Advice 12/08/16

Today’s Ratings and Advice 12/08/16

Ron RobinsonIt would appear Site Members received their Newsletter a little later than usual this morning. I have asked the good people in charge of the facility we use to look into this for me.

Our records page indicates it went out bang on time. As I was typing that I received two e-mails from 500 Club members advising they had not received theirs, either.

The internet can sometimes be a pain, no? E-mail delivery does sometimes match the speeds shown by Royal Snail in recent years!

Speaking of Royal Snail, I have received an envelope returned to me (Ernie, it’s yours), that had been damaged and the raffle tickets missing. I also heard of another member who had suffered this too and, less than an hour ago, another member messaged me to say they had to pay an additional postage charge to collect it…this after I had them all weighed at my local post office.

I’m just going to put large letter stamps on everything that goes out from here on in and I’ll make good those charges….news on how shortly.

The evening figures are below and I’m happy with them. Let’s see how Newmarket performs tonight. Proof was offered up last week it’s a “neither here nor there” meeting in terms of the Ratings. Over the last fews years we’ve more or less broken even there now so a winer or two tonight will hopefully put that meeting in profit!

THE 2016-2017 NH SEASON

Never felt more positive about anything in my life and after speaking to Highclere at 10-30am this morning I’m so “up” I cannot put it into words.

MEET THE LEGEND and TOWER OF ALLEN are now back in training and the first named very much being aimed at the Greatwood Hurdle in November.

He could be absolutely anything this season and those going racing with him are in for one heck of a time.

TOWER OF ALLEN has a big reputation to live up to and from previous messages received Nicky Henderson will be looking to avoid winter ground with him and get cracking early.

I cannot wait to see him over hurdles as I’m certain he will prove much more of a racehorse than he did last season when anything that could go wrong for him, did go wrong.

Bring it on!

PODCAST

Had a lengthy chat to Sean yesterday and he’s up for it. My idea is to reintroduce this in time for the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham in November.

I spoke of several ideas I have that I’d like to have in place by 2020 and that includes Fantasy Horse Racing.

We really do have some very exciting times ahead.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Nottingham / Fri 12 Aug
First Race: 2:10 pm Going/Track Good to Firm, Good in Places (GoingStick: 8.2 on Tuesday at 08:30)
Updated @ 7:52am, Wed 10 Aug

Rails: Outer track.
Updated @ 8:33am, Fri 05 Aug

Stalls: 5f, 6f and 1m – centre; Remainder – inside
Updated @ 7:52am, Wed 10 Aug

Watering: Selective watering to maintain through Thursday afternoon.
Updated @ 10:47am, Thu 11 Aug

Weather 2.5mm rain overnight. Largely dry and overcast forecast for the remainder of Thursday. Friday looks dry with sunny spells and temperatures rising to around 22C.
Updated @ 10:47am, Thu 11 Aug

Newbury / Fri 12 Aug
First Race: 2:20 pm Going/Track Good to firm / Good in places Watering as necessary (GoingStick: 7.2 on Thursday at 16:00)
Updated @ 6:06am, Fri 12 Aug

Rails: Rail has been moved in the round course from the 8f to the 5f, to give fresh ground. 1m 5f plus 7yds 1m 2f plus 7yds 1m 1f plus 7yds
Updated @ 4:12pm, Thu 11 Aug

Stalls: Centre of course straight course Centre of the course round course
Updated @ 6:15pm, Thu 04 Aug

Watering: Water applied Mon 8mm on the whole course Tues 8mm on the whole course. Wed 8mm on the whole course Thurs 8 mm on all bends
Updated @ 4:04pm, Thu 11 Aug

Weather Last 24hrs Dry Forecast: Fri Dry sunny spells Max 23 Sat Cloudy with a risk of light showers am, sunny later Max 21
Updated @ 6:06am, Fri 12 Aug

Newmarket / Fri 12 Aug
First Race: 5:30 pm Going/Track Good to Firm (Good in places)(Watered) (GoingStick: 7.3 on Thursday at 07:30)
Updated @ 7:38am, Thu 11 Aug

Rails: The re-positioning of the running rail on the Beacon Course and the bend into the home straight has increased the distance of the 10f race by 15yds.
Updated @ 12:35pm, Thu 11 Aug

Stalls: Far Side Course 10f Centre Remainder Far Side
Updated @ 11:16am, Tue 09 Aug

Watering: 12mm applied to the course on Monday. A further 8mm applied to the course on Wednesday. Further irrigation to be undertaken after racing on Friday.
Updated @ 7:39am, Thu 11 Aug

Weather 2mm of rain so far this morning. Thursday; Morning rain clearing to leave a dry remainder to the day. Friday & Saturday; Dry, warm and with sunny spells.
Updated @ 7:38am, Thu 11 Aug

Catterick Bridge / Fri 12 Aug
First Race: 5:40 pm Going/TrackGood
Updated @ 9:10am, Thu 11 Aug

Rails: Rail moved out on bend into home straight and straight by 3yds increasing distance of races of 6f and over by 9yds
Updated @ 12:01pm, Tue 09 Aug

Stalls: 1m4f – Centre Remainder – Inside
Updated @ 2:33pm, Thu 04 Aug

Watering: Watered
Updated @ 9:10am, Thu 11 Aug

Weather 10mm rain overnight 7mm rain Tuesday night Forecast: Thursday – Overcast morning clearing to leave a dry, breezy afternoon Friday – Dry, breezy day, sunny spells
Updated @ 9:10am, Thu 11 Aug

ICONS

§ – Indicates ideally drawn
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)
3 – 3-y-o running in all aged handicap

FINAL FIGURES

NEWBURY 2-50 (4)

* – LULANI….+15
* – MISTER MUSICMASTER….+9
CORDITE….-8
* – STEAL THE SCENE….-23
MONSIEUR CHEVALIER….-23
* – MARCANO….-25
* – EXCEEDING POWER….-40
H – WIND IN MY SAILS….-40
CORPORAL MADDOX….-40

NOTES: My top pair are both 1-1 here, boast three ticks and I’m personally not looking outside them for my winner. Those below them have stats that require plastic surgery and, for instance, if my bottom rated were to win he’d buck the 0-12 ground and 0-6 trip stats.

That one sitting third best is 01 ground and a whopping great 0-11 trip….and that’s third best on my numbers!

STEAL THE SCENE is 0-5 trip, MONSIEUR CHEVALIER 0-6 ground, 0-17 trip….

Tip pair dutch, straight win LULANI, exotic.

NEWBURY 4-30 (4)

* – NEWTON’S LAW….-11
3* – LITTLE VOICE….-16
T* – SECRET ASSET….-18
* – KING CRIMSON….-40
* – SANDFRANKSKIPSGO….-40
* – MAJESTIC HERO….-40
T – RED STRIPES….-40

NOTES: The figures indicate it’s a weak race, stats back that up. Not a race I’m trusting with my shekels.

NOTTINGHAM 2-40 (M-H-L) (6)

§* – PRIGSNOV DANCER….+7
* – ZEBELLINI….-11
* – BILASH….-17
3 – EDITH WESTON….-31
§3 – WHISPERING SOUL….-32
3 – EMERALD BAY….-38
3 – TALLY’S SONG….-38
§ – CAPTAIN DEVIOUS….-40
§3 – HASHTAG FRENZY….-40
GO CHARLIE….-40

NOTES: A Class 6 with an 11 year old topping my figures. Oh joy!

I’ll not waste time explaining how bad this is, that says it all bit in my top three I have a pair that do boast three ticks….rated horses 1 & 3 but you would have to think that if none of the 3-y-o’s are good enough to win this, they are in serious trouble.

Not a race I’ll be betting myself.

NOTTINGHAM 3-10 (4)

3 – PINK MARTINI….+14
3* – GALE SONG….-11
H* – HONEYSUCKLE LIL….-18
* – AUGUSTA ADA….-20
* – MEANDMYSHADOW….-26
3* – BELLEDESERT….-31
3 – SWIRRAL EDGE….-33
INVADE….-40

NOTES: It has the feeling of a competitive race but my figures suggest not. Stats will not help us make a decision here but for sure, it’s an October Rules or nowt kind of race. My top rated has never raced on good to firm before and is 0-3 at the trip. Those that have raced here before have done diddly.

I’ll just wait until the evening figures are boxed off.

CATTERICK 7-50 (M-L-H) (6)

§* – BOXING SHADOWS….+11
H§* – INNOCENTLY….+10
§* – COMPTON RIVER….+9
* – GROUNDWORKER….+9
* – JACOB’S PIILLOW….+8
§* – PERFECT WORDS….+8
T* – SALVATORE FURY….+8
* – PAVER’S STAR….-4
* – WINDFORPOWER….-4
* – BOLD SPIRIT….-11
§ – HARPERS RUBY….-31
YPRES….-34
H3 – WILSONS RUBY….-36
3 – ANOTHER DESPERADO….-40
* – THORNABY PRINCESS….NR

NOTES: It’s only a Class 6 but I’m really looking forward to it.

It is purely and simply down to my numbers and my reading of the draw that I can work with because stats would put you off the lot….I really like the look of INNOCENTLY….5-33 trip, 1-1 track….but 1-12 ground?

That is how most of these stack up though so, with three drawn right, all good to go on the ground and carrying a decent plus figure into the race, in my top six…they get the gig

Dutch rated horses 1-2-3, exotics and a 20/80 BOXING SHADOWS, who has an even worse strike rate on the ground (1-15), than INNOCENTLY but is rated a point better so, I’ll run with it.

CATTERICK 8-25 (M-L-H) (6)

§* – JUST PAUL….+18
3 – BEADLAM….+13
3* – DEBEN….+11
* – COOLCALMCOLLECTED….+8
§ – EMBLAZE….±0
§ – SALTERELLO….-1
* – ADIATOR….-22
§ – TOM’S ANNA….-32
§3 – MR POTTER….-34
H3 – CANFORD KILBEY….-36
T3 – MAGICAL LASSO….-38
NELSON’S BAY….-39
T3 – SUUKI….-40
LORD ROB….-40
3 – CANFORD BELLE….-40

NOTES: DEBEN caught my eye before I’d put pen to paper here and had he been drawn where I would ideally want him, he’d have been a solo play right enough. In my dutch for sure.

JUST PAUL has a stunningly good rating. He also boasts three ticks…1-10 ground, 6-29 trip and 1-8 track but, for a Class 6 horse, that’s pretty damn fine!

That one and COOLCALMCOLLECTED join DEBEN in my dutch and I’m oh so tempted to give that 20/80 to the Ryan horse. I’ll resist the urge and go with JUST PAUL….wait for the screams!

NEWMARKET 6-00 (4)

3* – DAVID’S DUCHESS….+15
3* – HIGHLY SPRUNG….+8
3 – KESTREL CALL….-12
* – COSMIC CHATTER….-20
* – BAHAMIAN HEIGHTS….-24
3 – QUICK NOTE….-40
UNTIL MIDNIGHT….-40
* – DIAMOND LADY….NR

NOTES: Stats give us no way in here, which is not surprising given the number of unexposed 3-y-o’s involved. I have a pair of them sitting top of my numbers with the ground right and I’ll simply work with that pairing…dutch, 20/80 my top one and exotics.

NEWMARKET 7-10 (5)

3* – BLUE GERANIUM….+9
* – GANNICUS….-7
* – TELLOVOI….-17
* – LUNAR DEITY….-17
* – GULLAND ROCK….-24
* – ELLAAL….-25
H3 – CLEVERCONVERSATION….-40
H3 – REBEL LIGHTNING….-40

NOTES: This looks done and dusted if my figures and the markets are right. With stats also showing a 50%strike rate on the ground and over the trip, what is not to like?

Straight win my top one and an exotic my top pair….Brendan Powell was firing winners in yesterday and GANNICUS will hopefully just find my top one to good tonight.

NEWMARKET 8-15 (3)

3* – EASTER MATE….+9
3* – PALMERSTON….+9
* – DUTCH LAW….+8
3 – PREDELICTION….-1
* – DUBAI DYMANO….-25
H* – BRIARDALE….-25
SECRET ART….NR
* – CINQUENTA PASOS….NR

NOTES: Already down to six runners but yet again the younger horses look dominant. Very much aware of the love affair my third best has with this track as he did me proud six days ago (3-4 here now!), but that pair sitting top look set to give him plenty to think about. if stats mean anything in this contest then PALMERSTON is the “most likely to succeed” as he’s 2-3 ground, 2-4 trip and 1-1 at Newmarket.

I couldn’t split the top two even using my criteria for doing so and it’s purely alphabetical….I’m working with the pair so whichever wins, I’ll hopefully drag a profit from it.

Have a great day

Ron

About Ron Robinson

Check Also

Today’s Ratings and OF INTEREST selections 09/11/17

One of the horses we were involved in runs for his new yard today. TOWER …

Leave a Reply