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Today’s Ratings and Advice 09/08/16

Ron RobinsonFor such a poor day of racing the results produced were seriously good yesterday.

Nothing from the first but with JAY KAY taken out of the 3-00pm I simply played my top three to October Rules, landed my dutch, the “80”, a £43.80 exacta and the £38.27 CSF.

Much gnashing of teeth at 3-30pm as the 20/1 shot in my dutch came home second and a 3-y-o with the draw spot on came and scuppered me.

I left the 4-00pm alone but was not overly surprised to see BUNCE go in @ 9/1….third best on my figures and as mentioned in the text on the website, in it’s rightful place based on stats.

ROBINNEILY landed me a few quid profit in the 4-30 but again, only by virtue of my top rated being pulled out and my applying “natural progression”.

Never spent a penny on either of the last two races and missed the 12/1 winner of the 5-00pm race….two winners 12/1 & 9/1 missed that should have produced me a couple of £’s profit but that’s life.

TODAY

Today is like a Saturday with a host of rated races to finalise and get in your inboxes before 7-15am so, again, I’ll just provide the figures in this Newsletter, add the text on the website but, as we have two races from Nottingham this evening, I’ll make sure that text is also included in the second Newsletter, which go out around noon.

ASSUMPTIONS

Thirsk / Tue 09 Aug
First Race: 2:00 pm Going/Track Good to Firm, Good in places
Updated @ 6:43am, Tue 09 Aug

Rails: Home Bend dolled-out by circa 8 yards, which adds approximately 25 yards to the standard distances for all races of 7f and upwards. Additionally, circa half of the Away Bend is dolled out from the Winning Line onwards adding an additional circa 5 yards to the standard distance for the 1M4F Start, therefore making this distance circa 30 yards longer than standard overall.
Updated @ 12:00pm, Mon 01 Aug

Stalls: Straight Course & 1M4F Start: Stands’Side Round Course: Inside
Updated @ 6:39am, Sat 30 Jul

Watering: Wateredas Applied 3-5mm Saturday night Applied 2-4mm Monday night
Updated @ 6:43am, Tue 09 Aug

Weather Dry overnight Forecast: Tuesday – Mainly dry although possible chance of light shower in the afternoon
Updated @ 6:43am, Tue 09 Aug

Chepstow / Tue 09 Aug
First Race: 2:15 pm Going/Track Good to Firm Dry on Monday and overnight (GoingStick: 9.1 on Tuesday at 06:00)
Updated @ 6:30am, Tue 09 Aug

Stalls: 6f, 7f & 1m Centre 1m2f & 1m4f Inside
Updated @ 10:37am, Mon 01 Aug

Weather Forecast: A sunny morning, becoming cloudy later, max temp 18C.
Updated @ 6:30am, Tue 09 Aug

Lingfield Park / Tue 09 Aug
First Race: 5:10 pm Going/Track Turf: Good to Firm, Good in places – watering AWT: Standard (GoingStick: 8.0 on Tuesday at 06:15)
Updated @ 6:23am, Tue 09 Aug

Stalls: Turf: Centre AWT: Inside
Updated @ 7:09am, Thu 04 Aug

Weather Dry Yesterday F’cast; Remaining dry with sunny spells.
Updated @ 6:23am, Tue 09 Aug

Nottingham / Tue 09 Aug
First Race: 5:30 pm Going/Track Good to Firm, Good in places (GoingStick: 8.3 on Sunday at 07:00)
Updated @ 7:39am, Sun 07 Aug

Rails: Outer track. Standard distances.
Updated @ 7:39am, Sun 07 Aug

Stalls: 5f, 6f & 1m – centre; Remainder – inside
Updated @ 7:39am, Sun 07 Aug

Watering: Watering to maintain Good to Firm. 10mm applied Sunday. Further selective watering of quicker areas through Monday.
Updated @ 8:12am, Mon 08 Aug

Weather 6mm rain Thursday. Dry and warm since. Monday and Tuesday: Remaining largely dry and breezy with sunny spells and fresher temperatures of around 19C.
Updated @ 8:12am, Mon 08 Aug

ICONS

§ – Indicates ideally drawn
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)
3 – 3-y-o running in all aged handicap

CHEPSTOW 3-15 (6)

PRIM AND PROPER….+11
* – DIAMONDS A DANCING….+10
CASTLE TALBOT….-12
NEVER TO BE….-34
STANLOW….-40
T3 – HIDDEN GEM….-40
3 – OCEAN GALE….-40
AVON SCENT….-40

NOTES: The ground has changed since I prepped my figures for this meeting, now reading good to firm. It was genuinely good at prep time and only that one sitting second best had winning form on it….now, on good to firm, we have several more and these races would have to be re-rated. I’d not have time to do this.

In truth it would not be classed as a significant change and with PRIM AND PROPER now also entitled to carry the * icon, I’m happy the winner is in my top pair….given his 2-2 track record, most likely DIAMONDS A DANCING.

CHEPSTOW 3-45 (4)

* – GILMER….+16
H3 – OPERATIVE….+11
T – ALIZOOM….-7
* – MIDNIGHT RIDER….-10
* – MONARCH MAID….-25
FREE ZONE….-31
H3 – ANDAR….-31
GOLD HUNTER….-40
TH3 – WOWCHA….-40

NOTES: Unfortunately the drying ground has seriously compromised the chances of my top rated….currently 0-6 on it. That 3-5 track record now loses a bit go it’s shine.

If I were to play this race now the 2-10 ground, 3-32 trip and 2-7 track record of MIDNIGHT RIDER looks enough to make him a 20/80 play.

Horses are now obviously being pulled out because go the going change and it’s probably best to walk away.

CHEPSTOW 5-20 (5)

* – BILIDN….+5 – NR
3 – BIGGER AND BETTER….+1
* – THE QUARTERBACK….-4
* – ROSIE ROYALE….-21
3* – FILE OF FACTS….-30
SUNDAY ROYAL….-40
DANCE WITH KATE….-40

NOTES: My top rated has already gone, we are down to six and if one more came out, it’s in the bin.

The 3-y-o sitting second best now has the ground he has won his only race on and is the most likely winner.

THIRSK 3-00 (H-M-L) (5)

* – MERCURY….+4
T§3* – SHE’S ELECTRIC….+2
* – ROCKET RONNIE….-3
§ – RONYA….-10
§ – MIDLIGHT….-28
3 – WHITKIRK….-29
3 – BEVERLEY BULLET….-29
3 – HIJRAN….-29
DARK WARRIOR….-30
§ – AFKAR….-38
3 – YOUNG CHRISTIAN….-40
FERDY….-40

NOTES: Same scenario here I’m afraid. Drying ground hasn’t so much compromised those already having won on the ground as previously described but brought into the picture a fair few others and it’s simply not going to be possible for me to re-rate these races.

The non-runners will start to trundle in now and as frustrating as it is, you now need to make a decision…play, or walk away.

I’m leaving it alone this afternoon and now looking to see what those Nottingham races can bring us.

THIRSK 3-30 (H-L-M) (4)

§* – SAVANNAH BEAU….+9
3* – LYDIA’S PLACE….+8
§ – MONEY TEAM….+4
§3 – RICHTER SCALE….+4
3* – TIKTHEBOX….+3
§* – SEAMSTER….+2
* – ADAM’S ALE….±0
CAPTAIN DUNNE….-1
CASTERBRIDGE….-10
ORIENTAL RELATION….-10
* – RUSTY ROCKET….-13
* – SPACE ARTIST….-17
§3 – KRYSTALLITE….-21
MUSHARRIF….-25
§ – ZIGGY LEE….-35
H3 – TICKING AWAY….-37

NOTES:

THIRSK 4-00 (4)

* – TAMAYUZ MAGIC….+9
* – CARTHAGE….+8
T* – WALPOLE….-4
ODEON….-20
* – ONLY ORSENFOOLSIES….-26
MIN ALEMARAT….-32

NOTES:

THIRSK 5-00 (H-L-M) (6)

§* – SUNRISE DANCE….+10
§* – GAELIC WIZARD….+9
* – BOGSNOG….+9
3 – BEADLAM….-3
3 – TRIBESMAN….-18
* – THORNABY PRINCESS….-18
SIR GEOFFREY….-32
3 – KING’S CURRENCY….-32
§3 – SOMEONE EXCITING….-33
3 – COSMIC DUST….-36
T – SEA OF GREEN….-40
§ – GEORGE BAILEY….-40

NOTES:

THIRSK 5-35 (H-L-M) (6)

§* – TEETOTAL….+1
3* – ANUSHKA NOO NOO….-3
§* – DARK CASTLE….-6
* – SECRET CITY….-11
* – A J COOK….-12
§ – AMIS REUNIS….-20
H – POOLSTOCK….-26
3 – BAZUKA….-32
SPOKEN WORDS….-38
3 – BOMBER ETCHES….-40
GOOD MOVE….-40
§3 – MOLIVIA’S GEM….-40

NOTES:

NOTTINGHAM 8-00 (5)

* – ROYAL BAJAN….+8
* – TAVENER….-2
* – CLASSIC PURSUIT….-7
ORIENT CLASS….-25
YOU’RE COOL….-40
3 – DOMINANCE….-40
FRANK THE BARBER….-40

NOTES: No issues with going changes here….yet! Hopefully that remains the case as i’d be confident the winner is in my top three. Despite being the only previous course winner (1-9), I’ll be surprised if it’s my top rated. He has not won on turf since October 2014 although, that was here, on good to firm!

I’m going to run up a dutch rated horses 2 & 3 with a 20/80 TAVENER….small exotic, too.

He is still relatively lightly raced, just 10 runs on turf to date and I only see CLASSIC PURSUIT as a danger.

He is more exposed, 23 runs on turf and three wins to show for it.

NOTTINGHAM 8-30 (M-H-L) (6)

* – LOUMARIN….+11
§3 – TAHITI ONE….+10
* – TRIPLE DREAM….+3
§ – CAMDORA….-26
§ – FIRST EXCEL….-30
H§3 – KODIMOOR….-33
JACKSONFIRE….-36
3 – CARLOVIAN….-36
3 – MEN UNITED….-40
§3 – KYLLA….-40
KAABER….-40

NOTES: Wonderful….a Class 6 to finish and it’s choc full of moose. Stats would only point you in the direction of one horse….TRIPLE DREAM…but he’s now an 11 year old who has not won on turf since 2013!

I could only really suggest working with my top two…dutch, 20/80 my top rated and an exotic but to your absolute minimal staking.

Have a great day

Ron

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