Plenty of big field races and we kick off with an impossible to de-cipher Nursery, 14 x 2-y-o’s all weighted to dead heat….yeah, right.
Stats will tell you nothing at all, as you might imagine. Ground, trip and track, for those that have tried one or all three, have meant nothing.
I mentioned recently that the rule of thumb with this kind of race was, “punt the top weighted”….ALTIKO TOMMY would have been an easy call following his recent run but he’s been given a complete pig of a draw in 3, high preferred to middle, with low looking out with the washing.
In that case I’ll put forward WAKENED as a “possible”….drawn 13…perfect, only a lb off top weight, but then you have the poor record of trainer and jockey here.
It’s quite simply a race you look at, check out each in turn and find more reasons not to bet, than to bet…so, no bet.
The 2-10 is equally as challenging, even if we do now have just eight runners to work with (two have been pulled out this morning).
The one I’m most interested in is MISS FAY. Trainer Michael Bell sends his here to win, as evidenced by his 3-11 strike rate with 2-y-o’s here over the last five seasons. She’s an 80,000E fourth foal who was relatively early and Bell is reported to have described as being “a 2-y-o for sure”….Atzeni has been booked and I’ll keep an eye on the market before making a decision whether or not to get involved but the 6.2 win very much appeals right now.
The second division of that race comes next and that too is now down to eight. The best form is held by the current favourite, CONQUERESS, but that trainer/jockey record here is really poor and I believe better is expected of ROBIN’S PURSE this afternoon. Reported by Charlie Hills to have run very green on debut and also caught out wide, he’s hoping for better.
The one I am playing here though is LIFE ON MARS.
Haggas has an outstanding record here and when he puts Cosgrave up, they have a brilliant 50% strike rate (4-8).
I’ll have a 20/80.
Who’s up for a Class 6 Seller at 3-10pm? Me neither….the record of Adam kirby when he teams up with David Evans here is awesome (3-7) and ANONYMOUS JOHN runs for the pair here but he’s won just one since 2014….that came in October last year….onwards to the 3-40, me thinks!
Plenty of non-runners already coming through here today and yet again we’ve already lost two and are down to nine runners.
The only way in from a stats angle is NOCTURN, but he’s not won for over a year now. Adam Kirby rides this one, too and who knows, he might just coax the old boy back to form….the market suggests not as he’s the 25/1 rag.
KING OF SPIN, a 3-y-o, is on a roll and clear favourite. I cannot build a case for it though and so, it’s another I’m swerving.
The Claimer at 4-10pm is now down to five and we don’t go near such races so the Class 6 Handicap at 4-40pm is next. Already down to six runners this goes exactly the same way as that Claimer, should one more come out.
The only runner I could even consider punting would be HIGHLIFE DANCER and if he fails to hit the frame here I would be a little surprised…not a lot.
I’m again not betting this one though as it’s a bit of a shocker.
The “lucky last” at 5-10pm and they go 6 the field right now….shock, horror!
Yet another Class 6 Handicap and we’ve now 13 going to post. I’m thinking middle drawn will hold the key here so boxes 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 might be the ones to look at more closely but with so many 3-y-o’s being let loose and several of them wholly unexposed it’s a bit like standing there with wire clippers, wondering which of the red or green to snip to stop it exploding in your face.
I’ve just passed those snippers to someone with less to lose and will leave it at that!
MISS FAY (2-10) – 20/80
LIFE ON MARS (2-40) – 20/80
Best of luck!