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Lingfield and Bath Previews 31/08/16

Ron RobinsonLingfield puts on a right old dog of a meeting today, with four Maidens and a Claimer on the seven race card.

Stuff dreams are made of, eh!

2-10 – AABC MATERIALS CLAIMING STAKES (CLASS 6) (3-4yo) Winner £2,588 5 runners 1m3f106y Good To Firm

The meeting kicks off with that five runner Claimer and if you are going, might I suggest you arrive late?

The only people that will be making 100% sure they are their in time for that 2-10pm will be connections of those five runners….and I imagine one or two of those will throw a sickie.

2-40 – HANSON REGAN 10TH BIRTHDAY MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 6) (3-4yo) Winner £2,588 5 runners 1m3f106y Good To Firm

Another five runner event at 2-40pm….it is free to get in today, isn’t it?

3-10 – OILFIELD OFFSHORE UNDERWRITING HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo 0-85) Winner £5,175 9 runners 1m2f Good To Firm

3-10pm….like a breathe of fresh leafy Lingfield air. A nine runner all 3-y-o Handicap….you can imagine my sheer delight.

Oh wait…it was nine runners but three have been pulled! Now down to six it takes just one more to come out before it to descends into farce and I’d be off.

From a stats point of view the only runner I could consider punting is WAPPING. The Baker/Lanigan Project have a superb level stake profit (£29) produced from their runners in handicaps over the last couple of years, and whilst the horse has yet to race here the 1-3 ground and 1-2 trip stats are healthy enough for a 3-y-o.

CALIFORNIA LAD is the only previous course winner in the depleted field and is 1-2 trip, too but the 0-3 ground might be a cause for concern?

FROZEN FORCE is 1-2 ground and a decent enough 2-5 trip but he too has yet to race at this track.

right now I’m with WAPPING but if it drops to five runners, all bets are off.

POST RACING PICK – WAPPING – STRAIGHT WIN

3-40 – INJURED JOCKEYS FUND NURSERY HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (2yo 0-70) Winner £3,235 11 runners 6f Good To Firm

A Class 5 Nursery. If they are charging to get in here today, they’ve a right old cheek!

This race is only three years old but a pattern is already developing. The winner has come from the first five on the tissue, the three favourites have finished 1, 3, 3 and all three winners to date have carried more than 9st but two have carried less than 9st 7lb.

That means, if the pattern continues, the winner is one of ONE TO MANY and ROYS DREAM.

The first named adheres to the “top weight in a nursery” philosophy but with ROYS DREAM arguably better drawn (two of the three winners had a double figure draw), and carrying the lighter weight, I’ll suggest that one as a 20/80.

POST RACING PICK – ROYS DREAM – 20/80

4-10 – HARLEYFORD AGGREGATES MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo) Winner £3,235 11 runners 6f Good To Firm

Cheeks puffed, here goes nothing.

This race is a little older….they’ve seen five runnings.

Until the last running the market very much pointed you in the right direction here, three favourites and a second favourite winning the first four.

however, what is clear is that whatever the market offers up as favourite will run a big race….1, 1, 1, 2, 2 are the five placings achieved in the races five year history.

Two of the five winners had placed last time out and the horse fitting like a glove right now is SFUMATO.

POST RACING PICK – SFUMATO – STRAIGHT WIN

4-40 – OILFIELD INSURANCE AGENCIES MAIDEN AUCTION FILLIES´ STAKES (PLUS 10 RACE) (CLASS 5) (2yo) Winner £3,881 11 runners 7f Good To Firm

No history to this one….it’s a Maiden Maiden

The two trainers in here that have strike rates with juveniles in excess of 20% over the last five years are David Evans (JENJI) and Jonathan Portman (IMPLAUSIBLE).

the latter makes her debut today and when bought cheaply from Book 3 at Tatts for just 14,000Gs it was found she had weak knees and they’ve given her time to get hard act together. The yard has done well with juveniles this season and she’s interesting.

JENJI has raced twice and ned one more run for her mark.

Not a race I’d want to play to cash, to be honest.

5-15 – RETRAINING OF RACEHORSES MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 6) (3-5yo) Winner £3,235 9 runners 7f Good To Firm

What a way to finish. Three runnings so far and none has been priced bigger than 4/1, in the first three on the tissue on each occasion.

The favourite has again finished in the first three on each occasion and so if you really must punt this, SCIARRA is the most likely winner but I’ll not be betting myself.

BATH

2-00 – BATH FOOD FESTIVAL EUROPEAN BREEDERS´ FUND NOVICE STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo) Winner £3,235 9 runners 5f161y Firm

One previous running of this and trainer William Muir took it last season with WILLYTHECONQUEROR. That winner has gone on to great things and only a few days ago it ran ALPHA DEFINI to a neck in the Beverley Bullet.

I don’t believe for a second that before the season kicked off he’d told his owners, “we’ll target that Bath Class 5” but he’s here with one again and it’s around 8/11 to provide him with his second winner in it.

NUCLEAR POWER is the form horse but anyone thinking about taking odds on in a juvenile Novice is on something!

A no bet race for me.

2-30 – DRIBUILD GROUP APPRENTICE TRAINING SERIES HANDICAP (BATH SUMMER SPRINT SERIES QUALIFIER) (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-75) Winner £3,558 8 runners 5f161y Firm

An apprentice handicap…never bet them myself.

3-00 – MARKEL HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo 0-75) Winner £3,235 6 runners 5f11y Firm

A Class 5 3-y-o handicap, six runners, and it’s 8/1 bar the Haggas trained LAPILI.

Not much by way of betting going on here this far!

3-30 – EBF STALLIONS BREEDING WINNERS FILLIES´ HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-80) Winner £6,469 6 runners 1m2f46y Firm

A six runner race that the market will tell you is actually just a two runner race….and probably right, too.

One of CANONBURY or ZAAKHIR wins unless something funky goes on. Their relative trainers are 25% and 22% with their 3-y-o’s at this track over the last five seasons, the rest have saddled just one winner from 29 runners between them of that age group, at this track.

The two older horse have a chance…none….and with Ted Durcan having a superb 21% strike rate on the Stoute 3-y-o’s here, as opposed to decent 15% Dane O’Neill has for Charles Hills, i’ll plump for the first named of the pair discussed.

POST RACING PICK – CANONBURY – STRAIGHT WIN

4-00 – ENVIRONMENTAL ESSENTIALS HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-55) Winner £2,264 12 runners 1m2f46y Firm

Down to nine following three defections. Not sure it makes finding the winner of a Bath Class 6 Handicap any easier but, here goes:

The previous five runnings of this indicate the favourite will run well but not win. ELLE REBELLE therefore currently looks a good place only bet @ 2.08

Looking for the winner though, the limited data might suggest we want something trading 6/1 or bigger….four of the five winners have gone in 16/1, 12/1, 10/1 and 13/2.

You look at those runners though and the only one you might consider trusting is the 13 year old, CAPTAIN OATS!

I’ll just post up that place play, I think.

POST RACING PICK – ELLE REBELLE TO PLACE

4-30 – SIMON “THE DADDY” AT 60 HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-75) Winner £3,235 10 runners 1m5y Firm

Just one previous running of this and the favourite took it.

Straight away the horse winking at me is the Amanda Perrett trained ENTRENCH. the trainer/jockey combo of Dodds and Perrett have superb 31% strike rate here and that’s about the only way into this all aged handicap.

It’s not really enough to suck me in though I’m afraid and I’ll just watch with interest.

5-00 – CB PROTECTION LTD HANDICAP (BATH SUMMER STAYERS´ SERIES QUALIFIER) (CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-60) Winner £2,264 11 runners 1m5f22y Firm

Down to nine runners again.

A Class 6 stayers event and about as appealing as an ingrowing toe-nail.

The market will most certainly be your best guide….all five previous winners came from the front four on the tissue, and only one o those five winners started bigger than 7/2.

On that basis only BALLYFARSOON has any chance at all.

Not a lot else to say about it to be honest and that would have to be the play.

POST RACING PICK – BALLYFARSOON – STRAIGHT WIN

Have a great day

Ron

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