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Ebor Profiling 19/08/16

Ron RobinsonI stopped rating races in excess of 12 furlongs a little while ago now but tomorrow I’ll provide figures for this one so we can compare and contrast figure/ratings.

A great shame they’ve pulled out IVAN GROZNY as hopes were high hew would enhance the page of SAM I by winning this. Unfortunately he pulled out lame so, we wait for another day with that one.

Age grouping first….seven of the last 10 winners were aged 5+ so it’s not a shortlist as such we kick off with but, it’s a list!

ELIDOR
BATTERSEA
KINEMA
VENT DE FORCE
ORIENTAL FOX
SEISMOS
HEARTBREAK CITY
SEAMOUR
QUICK JACK
FUN MAC
SHREWD
TOP TUG
HAVANA BEAT

Down to 14 of the 20 currently going to post.

From the point of view of wight being carried the best stat will be continued whatever wins because nothing is carrying less than 9st….only three of the last 10 winners have carried less than that.

So, next port of call is tissue. Much here is going to depend on the ground. The shortest priced winner in the last five years was TIGER CLIFF….5/1….(the youngest horse to win in that five year period, too), but that came on soft.

The “norm” is a horse winning at a price that makes this impossible for form students to fathom!

The last two winners came home 33/1 and 20/1….the other side of TIGER CLIFF….12/1, 25/1, 14/1, 25/1 and in 2006 a 100/1 shot took it.

Before I go any further, when checking SP’s of the last gazillion winners I also noted that since 1994, only one winner has actually carried more than 9st 4lb so we’ll prune a few more from that initial list:

SHREWD (16)
TOP TUG (18.5)
HAVANA BEAT (40)

Crikey, down to just three on that basis!

In brackets there I have indicated their respective price on betfair as I type. I would certainly be happy to set up a dutch based on age, weight and price but looking for a solo play then it would have to be TOP TUG.

Five year olds are the dominant age group with seven wins in the last 14 years and hopefully Alan King has him fit and firing tomorrow.

His only win on the flat, on turf, came on good to soft so the rain shouldn’t bother him

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE

TOP TUG – 20/80

Best of luck

Ron

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