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Today’s Ratings and Advice 13/05/16

Ron RobinsonWe came close to achieving some superb profits yesterday as THESME (14/1 > 12/1), ran a blinder in the opener to finish 3rd and the dutch was nearly landed and my 20/80, which i punted at 32 the win, was only beaten four lengths.

The winner of that race, DUKE OF FIRENZE, is one I’d punted so often when trained by Sir Michael Stoute and lost, won so easily I was tempted to write it a letter asking where that performance had been all these years!

ALWAYS SMILE was highly rated and very much open to the improvement he showed to win that 3-45. That was only his fifth run and he’s overcome everything I felt might be against him….ground…draw…and won like a Group horse.

We enjoyed success though when the dante provided us with a lovely 9/1 winner.

I didn’t fancy that pair of races at Newmarket last night but we came unbelievably close to landing a cracker in the second of them.
The Post Racing figures have been performing seriously well since I kicked off the new season a week ago and we so very nearly nailed a brilliant Trifecta….it would have paid a fortune!

NEWMARKET 6-45

* – DOLPHIN VILLAGE….+2 – 3RD 20/1
KNIGHT MUSIC….-1 – 2ND 12/1
T* – RHYTHMICAL….-10 – 4TH 4/1
* – JACOB CATS….-13
* – SAOI….-16
* – AGENT GIBBS….-24
* – DEEP BLUE DIAMOND….-30
* – INDIRA….-35
GOODWOOD MIRAGE….-40
HIGHER POWER….-40

NOTES: Marginally better and stronger statistically. Just. Again very much an October rules race if you dare punt it.

My top rated has never raced here before but 3-10 ground and 6-17 trip….and a plus figure…has to be competitive, surely?

JACOB CATS has his ground right enough (4-11) and is 1-4 here but, 0-8 at the trip? 2, 5, 6, 4…they are his form figures at this trip….he looks a miler, 10 furlong horse and with the likes of my top rated, KNIGHT MUSIC 4-8, INDIRA 5-16 and AGENT GIBBS 2-4 at 12 furlongs, if you got on this one you’d be hoping for several to run below their best.

KNIGHT MUSIC has his first try on good to firm so I’ll trust my figure is right and have him in my dutch. I’m also going to make it my 20/80 because DOLPHIN VILLAGE has not won on turf since 2014….his last two wins in December last year coming on the Lingfield sands.

Mark Johnston has sent RHYTHMICAL on a long journey for this Class 4 and she’s 1-2 on the ground. Since running three good races on quicker ground she has run three poorest races on good to soft. On seasonal debut she got thumped a distance at Ripon over two miles on that slower ground but she’s surely better than that and back in trip, on quicker ground, I’d be looking for her to produce more tonight.

DUTCH – DOLPHIN VILLAGE, KNIGHT MUSIC, RHYTHMICAL
20/80 – KNIGHT MUSIC
EXOTICS – DOLPHIN VILLAGE, KNIGHT MUSIC, RHYTHMICAL

We will nail one or two of those during the summer, if normal service is resumed.

TONIGHTS FIGURES

I love Hamilton. It was a very happy hunting ground last year and we have four races added to the daytime figures below.

Even small figure fields offer up a draw bias if I can read the race properly and we’ll see whether or not I am right tonight.

I’m puppy sitting this afternoon whilst trying to prep tomorrow’s racing…this should be interesting!

ASSUMPTIONS:

Hamilton Park / Fri 13 May
Going/Track Good, Good to Firm in places (GoingStick: 7.5 on Thursday at 07:45)
Updated @ 7:49am, Thu 12 May

Rails: Rail on loop out 6yds adding approximated 24yds to races 2, 3 & 4.
Updated @ 7:48am, Wed 11 May

Stalls: 5f & 1m4f – Stands Side; 6f – Centre; 1m & 1m1f – Inside
Updated @ 7:48am, Wed 11 May

Watering: 3mm irrigation applied to the straight on Wed.
Updated @ 7:49am, Thu 12 May

Weather Forecast: Dry, warm and breezy Thurs with temps up to 18c. Cooler (12c max) on Fri with some cloud cover.
Updated @ 7:49am, Thu 12 May

Newbury / Fri 13 May
Going/Track Soft (GoingStick: 5.0 on Thursday at 16:00)
Updated @ 4:16pm, Thu 12 May

Rails: Rail is currently set up on the inside line All race distances as described Rail from the 8f to the 5f on the round course will be moved out after racing on Friday; exact distances for races on the round course on Saturday will be confirmed in due course
Updated @ 4:19pm, Wed 11 May

Stalls: Centre of the course straight course Centre of the course round course
Updated @ 8:48am, Fri 06 May

Weather Since 8am Thursday it has been dry Forecast:Friday: Mainly dry and cloudy sunny spells later Max 18 Saturday: Mainly dry sunny spells later Max 15
Updated @ 5:52am, Fri 13 May

Newmarket / Fri 13 May
Going/Track Good to Firm (Good in Places)(Watered) (GoingStick: 7.7 on Thursday at 09:30)
Updated @ 9:51am, Thu 12 May

Rails: The re-positioning of the bend into the home straight has increased the distance of the 12f race by 9yds.
Updated @ 11:54am, Mon 09 May

Stalls: Stand Side Course 12f Centre Remainder Stand Side
Updated @ 6:37am, Thu 12 May

Watering: 6mm applied to the course Wednesday evening.
Updated @ 6:36am, Thu 12 May

Weather 7.5mm of rain on Tuesday. Dry overnight. Thursday-Saturday; Largely dry and with sunny spells.
Updated @ 6:39am, Thu 12 May

York / Fri 13 May
Going/Track Good to Firm (GoingStick: tba on Friday at 08:00)
Updated @ 5:59am, Fri 13 May

Rails: Friday rail alignment around home bend as for Thursday and has the following impact on race distances: Race 3 (1m), race 4 (1m6f) and race 5 & 7 (1m4f) reduced by 31 yards. All other race distances as advertised.
Updated @ 5:59am, Fri 13 May

Stalls: Friday stalls: Race 1 (5f) and race 5 & 7 (1m4f) – centre; Race 2 (5f 2yo) – standside; and Race 3 (1m), Race 4 (1m6f), Race 6 (7f) – inside rail.
Updated @ 3:10pm, Tue 10 May

Watering: Irrigated Thursday night with 2mms to replace moisture lost.
Updated @ 5:59am, Fri 13 May

Weather 5.5mm from 1pm Tuesday to 11am Wednesday. Dry since. Met Office forecast:Friday – dry with sunny intervals during the morning, clouding over in afternoon – 13 degrees.
Updated @ 5:59am, Fri 13 May

ICONS

§ – Indicates ideally drawn
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

NEWBURY 2-35 (H/L-M)

§* – CHORAL FESTIVAL….+10
MONCARNO….+9
§* – ROLY TRICKS….-5
§ – CAROLINAE….-11
§ – LOVING YOUR WORK….-18
* – BEAUSANT….-33
§ – GOODBY INHERITANCE….-37
§ – MY MO….-40
§ – MAVERIK….-40
§H – OFFICER DRIVEL….-40
§ – PRINCE OF CARDAMOM….-40
HEAD COACH….-40
GRACESOME….-40

NOTES: Soft ground renders this very weak from a stats angle so it’s all about the figures. The draw is also opened up because of the ground and the only place I’m thinking I do not want to be is middle but it’s very tight.

I’ll just work with my top three as I have two in there having won on soft and both (hopefully!), well drawn.

NEWBURY 3-10 (L-H/M)

* – KICKBOXER….+12
§ – MULLIONHEIR….+11
* – ENGLISHMAN….+10
* – CLEAR SPRING….+8
§ – DOUGAN….-2
§* – CHARLES MOLSON….-2
§ – DESERT FORCE….-3
LITTLE PALAVER….-5
§ – GOLDEN STEPS….-17
B FIFTY TWO….-33
FRANCESCO….-36
FIELD GAME….-40
HARRY HURRICANE….-40

NOTES: DESERT FORCE loves this place….2-3….but soft ground and this trip on it will not help improve that stat.

MULLIONHEIR is in my top two, is well drawn if I’m reading it correctly, is 1-1 here, 4-9 at the trip and has never encountered soft before. In my dutch but my 20/80 goes to the revitalised ENGLISHMAN. He loves soft ground (3-6), has a 25% strike rate at the trip (3-12) and is 1-2 here. Drawn second best I’ll punt him to complete his hat-trick.

The third horse I’m looking to work into a dutch if I can is KICKBOXER. Not the most reliable but the stable is performing and the horse has won previously on soft, 3-17 at the trip.

NEWMARKET 3-20 (L-M-H)

§* – SMOKETHATTHUNDERS….+13
STREET FORCE….+9
EXCEEDING POWER….+5
* – FROZEN LAKE….-15
* – ROUGE NUAGE….-18
§ – SONG OF NORWAY….-20
MY TARGET….-22
§ – HARLEQUIN STRIKER….-23
RIPINTO….-39
§ – WAROFINDEPENDENCE….-40
ANASTAZIA….-40
WORLD RECORD….-40

NOTES: Not a great race and weak statistically. Nothing has won here previously and only three have won previously on good to firm. I’ll just play those in my top six holding that * icon to October Rules.

NEWMARKET 3-55

VIEWPOINT….+5
BUCKLAND BEAU….-4
* – SHELL BAY….-13
* – GOLD PRINCE….-21
* – INTERCONNECTION….-21
* – PLYMOUTH SOUND….-25
SHAKOPEE….-40
ZAMPERINI….-40
U S NAVY SEAL….-40
CLOUD SEVEN….-40
BASTILLE DAY….-40
ALCATRAZ….-40

NOTES: SHELL BAY has that trio of ticks regarding ground/trip/track and his figures of 3-5, 1-2 and 1-1 respectively set him head and shoulders above these.

He is my 20/80 but it’s again….him apart…extremely weak from a stats angle and it’s rated horses 3, 4 and 5 to October Rules levels of punting again.

My top rated is 0-4 on good to firm, 2-22 at the trip and 0-3 here so whilst he has that + figure, he looks a very vulnerable top rated horse.

NEWMARKET 5-00

SECRET ART….+14
T* – SIMPLY SHINING….+5
T* – YOURARTISONFIRE….-8
* – GEORGE CINQ….-11
EMERALD….-29
ROTHERWICK….-40
JACK’S REVENGE….-40
AROWZONE….-40

NOTES: we have three on here that are 3-4 collectively at the track. however, between them, that trio are 0-15 on good to firm. They are rated horses 1, 5 and 6.

My top rated is actually -11 on good to firm and for that reason alone, I couldn’t be punting him.

I’m just going to dutch that pair below him to again, October Rules. Newmarket has not exactly been providing us with quality last night or this afternoon.

YORK 4-40

* – FATTSOTA….+6
* – CHANCERY….-3
PEARL CASTLE….-5
* – FIRE FIGHTING….-13
T* – OASIS FANTASY….-22
* – INNOCENT TOUCH….-24
* – BLUE HUSSAR….-26
T* – CROQUEMBOUCHE….-28
T – BARSANTI….-40
T – TOP TUG….-40

NOTES: My 20/80 here is CHANCERY, this despite my thinking the O’Meara horses are still a gallop or two short. He is 2-12 on the ground, 2-22 at the trip and 3-12 here, the only horse having three ticks.

I’m going to dutch with FIRE FIGHTING as he’s 3-10 on good to firm and 2-15 at the trip. I’d have been loathe to touch a Mark Johnston horse racing at York previously but last season he seemed to have found the key to the place….previously you could lay his York runners blind.

YORK 5-10

* – BREAKABLE….-12
T* – INVOKE….-14
* – MAMBO PARADISE….-15
* – AZAGAL….-16
* – MAUREB….-21
* – LIL SOPHELLA….-24
DUSKY DAWN….-24
APACHE STORM….-25
LAVETTA….-32
T – THREE GRACEZ….-40
T – SECRET HINT….-40

NOTES: If BREAKABLE wasn’t 0-2 here I would be more confident about my small 20/80 as he’s 4-8 on the ground, 3-12 at the trip.

It is a weak looking race from a Ratings point of view but he’s just the best of them and I’ll have him as my solo play.

MAUREB is 2-8 on the ground and at the trip and races here for the first time. That makes him one of the strongest statistically and he, along with INVOKE, who also races here for the first time but will find ground (2-7) and trip (4-12), perfect, are in my dutch/exotics.

HAMILTON 6-50 (L-H/M)

T§* – JACBEQUICK….+11
§* – TECTONIC….+10
T§* – TANAWAR….+9
§* – PUSH ME….+9
T – LIGHTNING SPREE….+7
T§* – GAMBINO….+4
T – KNOW YOUR NAME….+1
T* – NORMANDY KNIGHT….-3
SO IT’S WAR….-8
T – LARA CARBONARA….-10
T – ROMAN HOLIDAY….-15
ORIENTAL TIGER….-15
ARANTES….-16

NOTES: TECTONIC is a complete monkey. I could only punt him under specific circumstances…..Carlise, ridden by Phil Makin. He has talent but rarely chooses to use it. I’ll be ignoring him tonight, despite that figure. If he chooses to put it all in, good luck to those playing old school.

I have three in here, in my top six, all having those three icons….they are in my dutch. None of the three looks “banker” material and it’s seriously competitive so staking won’t be having alarm bells ringing in trading rooms but I’m happy with my figures and with knocking rocking the world statistically, I’ll dutch that trio, go 20/80 JACBEQUICK and set up exotics if I feel they’ll provide a dividend worth taking.

HAMILTON 7-25

* – CORTON LAD….+8
T* – BE PERFECT….+1
T* – SIKANDER….-11
T – FAISURE DE MIRACLE….-22
T* – FABRICATE….-23
T – MAID OF THE GLENS….-25
SIR CHAUVELIN….-35
T – MISTIROC….-40

NOTES: Two non-runners but no draw bias to worry about and so we’ll work with what we have.

Very conscious that FABRICATE is making a decent journey to race here but is so lightly raced he’s impossible to get a handle on. He’s going to be hard to beat.

With that in mind I’m just going to have a top two dutch to minimal staking….perhaps a cheeky little 20/80 my top one, too….he does like this track! (2-9).

HAMILTON 8-30 (H-L-M)

* – A LOVABLE ROGUE….+8
T* – KEENE’S POINTE….+6
NEW LEASE OF LIFE….+5
T – WOTNOT….-3
T§ – CHAPLIN BAY….-14
T* – DAYLIGHT….-15
T§ – IT’S ONLY MOSSY….-37
T§ – MAJOR VALENTINE….-40

NOTES: This has been rated in error as I do not get involved in a race when three year olds take on their elders until after Royal Ascot.

IT’S ONLY MOSSY is on a roll, is an “unrateable” horse right now and to win this class 6 it’s possible he’ll just need a leg in each corner.

Take him out and I’d just have been looking at a minute 20/80 KEENE’S POINTE.

HAMILTON 9-00 (M-H-L)

§* – SALVATORE FURY….+11
T* – BRONZE BEAU….+9
T§ – DANISH DUKE….-14
H – LITTLE BELTER….-19
T* – SWENDAB….-20
T – FINAL VENTURE….-22

NOTE: The ground is quickening up and they’ve pulled CLASSY ANNE. She’s a standing dish here….3-9 and would have been a serious challenger.

My top pair are now the only previous course winners in the field and I’ll dutch them, go straight win SALVATORE FURY and set up an exotic.

Have a brilliant day,

Ron

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