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Today’s Ratings and Advice 12/05/16

Ron RobinsonWe have the afternoon meeting at York and an evening meeting at Newmarket to work with today. Only two races from each and things start getting busier from tomorrow. I believe it’s 11 races across three meetings on Friday and Hamilton was a track that was kind to us last season.

The meeting at Salisbury offers up nothing for me to work with today and that’s actually quite typical of that place. Plenty of unexposed 3-y-o’s and juveniles going racing and my pencil and notebook are at the ready. I’m sure I’ll be able to spot us a future winner or two.

I have had to re-write my figures as the original prepped were done so on it being genuine good ground but it has dried out to good to firm in places and it actually made a heck of a difference, especially to that second race.

Unusual system today…afternoon figures below, evening figures coming out this afternoon in a separate Newsletter.

ASSUMPTIONS:

York / Thu 12 May
Going/Track Good, Good to Firm in Places (GoingStick: 7.8 overall. Home Straight; Far Side – 7.8 Centre – 7.9 Stands Side – 7.7 on Wednesday at 08:00)
Updated @ 8:05am, Wed 11 May

Rails: Thursday rail alignment around home bend has the following impact on race distance: Races 2 and 3 (1m2f),4 (1m)& 7(2m) :- reduced by 31 yards; All other race distances as advertised.
Updated @ 9:01am, Tue 10 May

Stalls: Thursday stalls: 5f and 1m4f – centre; 6f – stands side; remainder – inside rail.
Updated @ 9:01am, Tue 10 May

Weather 5.5mm rain from 1pm Tuesday to 11am Wednesday. Dry since. Met Office forecast: Thursday – dry, prolonged sunny periods, 19 degrees. Friday – dry, cloudy, 12 degrees.
Updated @ 5:59am, Thu 12 May

Newmarket / Thu 12 May
Going/Track Good to Firm (Good in Places) (GoingStick: 7.9 on Wednesday at 07:30)
Updated @ 7:47am, Wed 11 May

Rails: The re-positioning of the bend into the home straight has increased the distance of the 12f race by 9yds.
Updated @ 11:54am, Mon 09 May

Stalls: Stand Side Course 12f Centre Remainder Far Side
Updated @ 11:50am, Mon 09 May

Weather 7.5mm of rain in the last 36 hours. Wednesday; Sunny spells and showers. Thursday-Saturday; Largely dry.
Updated @ 7:47am, Wed 11 May

ICONS

§ – Indicates ideally drawn
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

YORK 2-10 (L-M-H)

* – THESME….+11
§* – ARCTIC FEELING….+9
* – MEADWAY….+8
* – SHAMSON….+6
§* – NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM….+1
* – FAST TRACK….-3
§* – DESERT LAW….-5
§ – DUKE OF FIRENZE….-5
* – DISTANT PAST….-11
* – LUCKY BEGGAR….-13
§* – RED BARON….-15
* – SON OF AFRICA….-19
DOCTOR SARDONICUS….-22
* – ADAM’S ALE….-23
BRANDO….-29
TOOFI….-33
§ – ROYAL BIRTH….-40

NOTES: If Rating and stats are to be believed 100% then my top rated has an outstanding chance here. She is unbeaten in two previous visits, 2-3 on the ground and 3-8 at the trip. Nigel Tinkler is in fine form right now and drawn slap bang middle Tom Eaves should be able to get her in the right place. She was given a pipe opener at bath in a Listed race on soft ground a few weeks ago and should be cherry ripe today.

SHAMSON is also unbeaten here so far but just 1-1. Unbeaten on the ground, 2-2 and 3-4 at the trip, he is in my dutch. Drawn one stall lower than THESME he too should be able to take up a decent position and nobody rode this place better yesterday than Frankie!

The third horse in my dutch will be ARCTIC FEELING. He too has three ticks regarding ground/trip/track and has returned in fine form this term. Draw is spot on and he must be competitive here.

For my 20/80 I’ll go with the last named. He is obviously much more exposed than the other pair but being “battle hardened” can be an advantage in such races. If I’m wrong and one of that other pair wins I’ll still pocket a profit from my dutch and hopefully those exotics, too.

MEADWAY is not without a chance either but the 17 draw looks akin to a ball and chain after what we saw yesterday.

YORK 3-45 (L-M-H)

§* – BIRDMAN….+12
* – LORD OF THE LAND….+9
§* – THIRD TIME LUCKY….+9
ALWAYS SMILE….+5
§* – LORD OF THE ROCK….+3
§* – ONE WORD MORE….-23
* – ALFRED HUTCHINSON….+2
* – GLORY AWAITS….+2
CONVEY….+1
BALTY BOYS….+1
§* – DONNCHA….+/-0
* – MASTER OF THE WORLD….-3
§* – MOTHERS FINEST….-7
HORS DE COMBAT….-10
§* – INGLEBY ANGEL….-15
ORACOLO….-17
* – TWO FOR TWO….-25
BARAWEEZ….-34
EXPRESS HIMSELF….-38

NOTES: The O’Meara horse just seem a tad short right now but they are running well and my top rated is one of only three previous course winners in here, the other pair being ALFRED HUTCHINSON and MASTER OF THE WORLD. BIRDMAN in a prime box to break from in 1, I have to include him in my dutch.

Danny Tudhope rides his other one, LORD OF THE LAND but he has a shocker of a draw in 19 and despite his high rating, I’ll omit him from my own play…..”old school” punters will be on though, I guess?

I’m going to bring in both THIRD TIME LUCKY and LORD OF THE ROCK into my dutch as they are well drawn, in my top six, have no issues with the ground (THIRD TIME LUCKY is actually 2-2 on it).

Given my feeling regarding the O’Meara horse the 20/80 goes to the Fahey horse.

DUTCH – BIRDMAN, THIRD TIME LUCKY , LORD OF THE ROCK
20/80 – THIRD TIME LUCKY
EXOTICS – BIRDMAN, THIRD TIME LUCKY, LORD OF THE ROCK

Have a brilliant day,

Ron

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