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Today’s Ratings and Advice 11/05/16

Ron RobinsonTwo meetings….York and Bath. I have three wonderfully competitive races at York for you to look at and a pair from Bath tonight that you might like to set fire to. I’m not a fan of Bath.

This evening figures, as usual, will be sent out to you this afternoon and will allow me to take advantage of going changes and non-runners altering the look of a race. It could well be, given the forecast, that I simply e-mail you to tell you not to bother….thunder storms and the potential for 10mm of rain….that’ll make it as impossible as Chepstow last night.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Bath / Wed 11 May
Going/Track Good, Good to Firm in Places
Updated @ 3:13pm, Tue 10 May

Rails: Rail is moved out around the bottom bend up to the 3 furlong marker, 10 yds should be added to all race distances that travel around the bottom bend.
Updated @ 7:57am, Sun 01 May

Stalls: 1m, 1m2f & 1m3f -Inside 5f & 2m1f – Centre 1m 5f – Outside
Updated @ 7:51am, Mon 09 May

Weather 8mm overnight 8mm through today, to date. (16mm in last 24 hrs) Forecast: Tues – Starting dry, with thundery showers moving in and lasting throughout the day. Poss 2-10mm Weds: Starts Dry, with possibility of further thundery showers, poss up to 12mm Max temps 17C
Updated @ 3:13pm, Tue 10 May

York / Wed 11 May
Going/Track Good, Good to Firm in Places
Updated @ 5:42am, Wed 11 May

Rails: Wednesday rail alignment around home bend has the following impact on race distance: Race 1 and 4 over 1m2f:- reduced by 42 yards; Race 7 over 1m4f:- reduced by by 42 yards; All other race distances as advertised.
Updated @ 6:13am, Mon 09 May

Stalls: Wednesday stalls: 5f – standside; 6f and 1m4f – centre; remainder – inside rail.
Updated @ 6:13am, Mon 09 May

Weather A total of 4.5mm from 1pm Tuesday to 3am Wednesday. Conditions at 5am Wednesday: dry since 3am, cloudy, mild. Met Office forecast: Wednesday – lingering shower risk through morning clearing through morning giving way to cloudy, largely dry afternoon with the occasional sunny spell, 16 degrees. Thursday – dry, prolonged sunny periods, 18 degrees. Friday – dry, cloudy, 11 degrees.
Updated @ 5:15am, Wed 11 May

ICONS

§ – Indicates ideally drawn
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

YORK 2-10 (L-M-H)

* – HIT THE JACKPOT….+9
T* – PACIFY….+9
* – AWAKE MY SOUL….+9
LORD BEN STACK….+8
§ – EMPRESS ALI….+4
§* – OFF ART….-8
* – SILVERY MOON….-16
§ – MASTER OF FINANCE….-18
T§* – NAYEL….-25
T – SPANISH SQUEEZE….-28
§ – ERIK THE RED….-36
REVOLUTIONIST….-36
H – HERNANDOSHIDEAWAY….-36
BUONARROTI….-40

NOTES: Stats here are very thin on the ground.Only one previous course winner in the field, EMPRESS ALI, only six previous winners on what is slowly easing ground (still fine for ratings purposes as it’s just gone good, good to firm in places), and only seven of them have won previously at the trip so, it’s simply down to my numbers/icons and the top six being “right”.

No surprise to see a couple of David O’Meara horses in my top six. He trains his to be right for this meeting but, he’s at least a month behind where he should be right now as his horses came in late because they were setting up the new training establishment.

I’m thinking I’ll work as follows. Rated horses 1, 2 and 6 will be dutched.

HIT THE JACKPOT has ground trip right but is 0-6 here and David’s other runner, AWAKE MY SOUL, is 0-5. I’m happy my figures have them sorted out with regards which will be the better of the pair.

OFF ART has his ground but trip/track might be an issue….0-6 and 0-4 respectively.

PACIFY is still quite lightly raced, will go on the ground, is drawn “second best” and will be my 20/80. I’ll set up my dutch and exotics and see if I cannot add to my profits.

NAYEL is the interesting one. Very lightly raced I cannot get him any higher up the table than he is but, he has that trio of icons and is open to plenty of improvement.

DUTCH – HIT THE JACKPOT, PACIFY, OFF ART
20/80 – PACIFY
EXOTICS – HIT THE JACKPOT, PACIFY, OFF ART

YORK 2-40 (L-M-H)

§* – CANYARI….+9
* – GEORGE DRYDEN….+8
§* – SEE THE SUN….+2
§* – GLEN MOSS….+2
§* – ZANETTO….+2
* – FLAMING SPEAR….+2
* – TATLISU….+1
HIGHLAND ACCLAIM….+/-0
GAMESOME….-1
§* – LOVE ISLAND….-4
* – GEORGE BOWEN….-8
* – BOGART….-13
* – MYTHMAKER….-16
* – YEEOOW….-17
T – HAWKEYETHENOO….-18
HOOF IT….-26
§ – INTENSE STYLE….-34
§ – RED PIKE….-38
GOD WILLING….-40

NOTES: What a cracking good race this is. FLAMING SPEAR was the horse that first caught my eye as I fancied him to run big races in much better grade than handicaps last season. He didn’t come up to snuff but with stats that read 1-2 ground, 1-1 trip and 1-1 here, you have to give that one a second look. However, if I’m reading the draw correctly then he’s boxed worst.

I’m going to work with my top three. CANYARI has a good draw to work with, is 2-6 on the ground and 3-14 at the trip. The fact we have a 0-2 stat regarding track is a worry but he’s trained by someone that loves a winner here and I’m happy.

GEORGE DRYDEN is really catching my eye, too. Ticks in all three boxes….1-3 ground, 2-10 trip and 1-2 here. Drawn not far off where I would want to be he’s in my dutch with CANYARI and SEE THE SUN.

The last named also has three ticks and whilst more exposed than some I’m quite sure Tim Easterby has him ready to run a big race.

DUTCH – CANYARI, GEORGE DRYDEN, SEE THE SUN
20/80 – GEORGE DRYDEN
EXOTICS – CANYARI, GEORGE DRYDEN, SEE THE SUN

YORK 5-20 (L/H-M)

§* – SELLINGALLTHETIME….+22
§* – CARTHAGE….+12
§* – YORKIDDING….+9
§ – BUSY STREET….+9
T§ – FAST PICK….+8
* – TWO JABS….+8
T§* – LIFE LESS ORDINARY….-2
§* – TAPIS LIBRE….-4
T – APPEARED….-7
§* – ENDLESS CREDIT….-14
§* – JOLLIEVITTESSE….-17
* – CLOUD MONKEY….-20
§ – MULTELLIE….-23
T§ – PRENDERGAST HILL….-25
§ – CRAGGANOCK….-30
* – ODEON….-33
DOMINADA….-40
MUHAAFIZ….-40
§ – WARFARE….-40
T§ – SABRE ROCK….-40

NOTES: Another extremely competitive heat but I’m happy with my figures when allied to stats.

Rated horses 1 & 3 have ticks in the boxes relating to ground/trip/track and I’ll simply work with the numbers as they have fallen.

I could wax lyrical about the chances of several outside my top six, like TAPIS LIBRE, who is 4-8 on the ground and 4-14 at the trip….but making his first trip to York.

LIFE LESS ORDINARY….1-3 ground, 1-2 trip. All three icons, only six races on turf to date and obviously open to improvement.

Nope, I’ll keep it simple and see if the figures etc can secure me a profit from it.

DUTCH – SELLINGALLTHETIME, CARTHAGE, YORKIDDING
20/80 – SELLINGALLTHETIME
EXOTICS – SELLINGALLTHETIME, CARTHAGE, YORKIDDING

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