Below are the names of 20 horses for the new 2016 Flat Racing season I hope do exactly that.
Get them in your trackers now and over the course of the next five months we’ll see whether the graft put in finding them was worthwhile.
Trained very much in the style of Sir Mark Prescott by Mark Johnston this horse had those three very quick runs between October 7th and November 9th last year and was then put away.
He has been beaten a total of 51 lengths in that time and gone off 33/1, 33/1 and 25/1.
On debut he was raced over 8.5 furlongs and finished 10th of 12 behind MENGLI KHAN, the 4/6 favourite. That winner was then sent to contest the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy and whilst he was thumped, the fact he took that race in indicates how much Hugo Palmer thinks about it.
The runner up that day ACROSS THE STARS, ran twice more, winning the third of his races @ 1/5.
Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, this one holds entries in the Dante and both the English and Irish Derby’s.
On his second run he dropped to the mile at Chelmsford and whilst again finishing no nearer than 7th place, another Stoute runner, THIKRIYAAT, winning that one, he was only just over three lengths off that winner and ran with plenty of promise.
Stoute also saddled the third that day, GALVANIZE, who won on seasonal debut last Thursday and if THIKRIYAAT wins at Newmarket on Tuesday it’ll be fair to say the form is solid.
(3)….SENNOCKIAN SONG ran his final race of the season at Kempton and was allowed to come home a near 18 length last of 12 to MARYLEBONE.
In fourth that day was yet another Stoute runner, SKY SHIP, who ran once more, winning by nearly four lengths at Wolverhampton.
This 20 to follow horse got his handicap mark that day, 71 being allotted by the official handicapper.
He is a half brother to SENNOCKIAN STAR, who went from 67 to 106 and this is obviously a family that gets better with each coming birthday.
When getting 10 furlongs or more, we’ll see a better horse and I’d not be in the least bit surprised to see him winning on handicap debut this year, just as his half-brother did.
Get him in your trackers.
Another to get the trio of quick runs to obtain a mark when he went racing on 07/10/2015, 23/10/15 and 07/11/15.
He actually ran in the same Nottingham race as that one above, finishing one place better in 9th behind MENGLI KHAN.
Just over two week later this Roger Varian trained colt took in a division of what might turn out to be a decent Newbury maiden and is the only one of the front six that day to race again last season.
He went up to Nottingham on the 4th of November and obtained his handicap mark when runner up to GOOD TRIP, who followed up at Southwell three weeks later.
PLANETARIA, who finished a 16 length third at Southwell ran HARLEQUIN ROCK to a nose next time out and whilst the form of those races is suspect, the intention of getting that handicap mark for this season had been established in the case of WEST DRIVE.
All three runs to date have been on slow ground over an inadequate trip and a derby entry suggests he’s better than a handicapper, if not quite that standard.
A “must” for the trackers.
The fifth in my list of 20 to follow for the coming flat season is:
He went off favourite on debut at Pontefract in August last year and beat SHAKA ZULU from the Haggas yard by a comfortable length, staying on well close home. That runner up bolted in by three lengths next time out.
The fact they’d allowed him to run there on his debut suggested to me he’ll be staying further at three and next time out they ran him in a red hot Doncaster juvenile race worth £147,540 to the winner and in a field of 22 runners he was clearly drawn on the wrong side in five. Four of the first six home were drawn 16, 19, 20 and 21 – 20 and 21 being the first two past the post.
APPLETON finished ninth but was only beaten about six lengths and having been held up stayed on really well and was never nearer than at the finish.
The form has a rock solid look to it and the winner of that Doncaster race then ran a half length second to LOG OUT ISLAND in the lister juvenile race at Redcar. That winner had been done just 1/2 a length in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot and ended the season rated 110.
The second at Doncaster, HUMPHREY BOGART then ran fourth to FOUNDATION, in the Royal Lodge. FOUNDATION is the great hope of Highclere on the flat this season and currently occupies fourth spot in the Derby betting.
The fact that Doncaster race was over a trip just shy of seven furlongs and that he was staying on really well, having made debut at Pontefract, a seriously stiff track, tells me he’ll most definitely be looking for a mile minimum this season and he comes into the new season with an official mark of 79. That’s 21b lower than the horse that beat him 5+ lengths, racing from a better draw, ended the season on and I think he’ll be absolutely lobbed in if Fahey let’s him take in a handicap off that mark.
Fahey also trains MR LUPTON, the winner of that Doncaster race so he’ll know exactly where to place this one to best effect.
(6)….CITY OF IDEAS
Trained by John Gosden he might eventually turn out a little better than a handicapper.
To be winning over close to 10 furlongs as a juvenile suggests a minimum of 12 will be needed this term. This one’s mum, GERTRUDE BELL, won over that kind of trip and I’ll be surprised if he’s not campaigned at around that trip this season.
He made debut on July 10th, a decent enough 13 runner maiden in which he finished 12th. That was over seven furlongs and was never going to be suitable.
The winner that day subsequently ran home a ½ length second in the Group 3 Solario before wrapping up it’s season with a 4 length third to FOUNDATION.
The runner up that day went on to run FOUNDATION to three lengths in the Royal Lodge and this is rock solid juvenile form.
The third placed horse, FOLKSWOOD, ran once more that season, winning a 17 runner Goodwood maiden by over a length.
It was a decent maiden.
Next time up he ran just over four lengths off the horse I believe is a cracking e.w. bet in the Derby….MIDTERM. That horse is the only Stoute/Abdulla horse to win on juvenile debut since WORKFORCE….winner of a Derby and an Arc.
They think a heck of a lot of it and the way in which he won that day was seriously impressive…hence his position as second favourite for the big one in June.
Anyway, back to our horse to follow.
CITY OF IDEAS was just given a nice quiet time out the back before being shaken up to finish nicely in 7th and was then upped in trip to the near 10 furlongs on the sand at Wolverhampton.
He won very nicely and, having achieved his handicap mark for this season (75), he was put away.
A “must” for the trackers.
The next in my 20 to Follow is another Sir Mark Prescott trained beast.
Usual way of going about things with a 2-y-o in that it was given three quick runs, this time within the space of 21 days between 31ST August and 22nd September and, again as would be usual, the Dansili colt went off 25/1, 200/1 and 66/1.
The layers know they are as safe as house putting such horses up at such prices and in running 8th of eight, 13th of 14 and 9th of 10, the colt achieved a rating of just 53.
All three runs came over seven furlongs and a mile and having cost over £100,000k you’d be thinking they left him an entire because they think that as he matures, he’ll be much better than that rating suggests.
On debut he finished a long way last behind a horse called BEAST MODE, who had run previously in the race at Newmarket the latest horse to follow, CITY OF IDEAS, ran 12th in.
BEAST MODE also provides form tied up with FOUNDTATION, having next time out ran just under five length fifth in the Royal Lodge and for sure, I’m relying a lot on that formline being bombproof.
BEAST MODE then ran THANKSFORTELLING ME, who was unbeaten at two, to less than a length in a listed race at Pontefract.
Second time up TYRANNICAL took on 14 runners at Leicester and I can only begin to imagine Sir Mark’s instructions to his jockey that day….“finish within a mile of those horses belonging to Godolphin, Hamdan Al Maktoum and Michael Tabor and I will have you killed”.
They duly finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd , the runner up producing a cracking good run behind CASTLE HARBOUR on seasonal debut at Newmarket last week.
Luke Morris finished 24 lengths back in 13th and lives.
On it’s final outing, on the 22nd of September, they went to Lingfield for a mile race on the sand. No doubt jockey again given the same or similar instructions as the Hannon shortie, ALTARSHEED, went in by six lengths.
That one made seasonal debut at Chelmsford on April 7th and was less than a length third to Sir Michael Stoute’s GALVANIZE.
The horse that finished just under two lengths 8th in that last run of the season, went to Lingfield on the 16th of January and bolted in by five lengths, and the horse that finished 3rd that day went in two weeks later by just over three lengths.
When looking for winning form from horses providing collateral form, which I do for these 20 horses we’ll be following, I’m finding plenty. That horse that finished third, BYRES ROAD, is now rated 80.
I’m happy to have this one in my tracker because if he’s not at least a stone better than we’ve seen when put over the proper trip, I’m a Dutchman.
This horse actually raced whilst I was on holiday but I’m looking for it to go handicapping over at least 10 furlongs and will not remove it because of that defeat.
(9)….LOAVES AND FISHES
(12)….OUT AND ABOUT
Also ran whilst I was away but I’m sticking with it as I think a handicap or two will be won, at the very least.
Another that has already raced once this season but I have in my notebook that she’ll be better over middle distance trips and having raced over a mile at two I didn’t expect to see it over that trip this season. She is entered for a decent race over further on May 12th.
One or two of these may well prove to be better than handicappers….their trainers will certainly hope so….and if we can find a few good priced winners in there, it’ll have been worth the efforts.