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A lovely 9/1 winner to get the season started!

Ron RobinsonI’d been looking forward to getting back into the swing of things following a two week break and we’ve started the new season with a bang.

I only had a couple of races to “rate” and the figures for those are below. In addition two OF INTEREST selections were provided:

IAN FLEMING – WON 9/1
(Chester 3-45) – 20/80
PERCY TOPLISS
(Chester 5-25) – 20/80

The rated races came out like this:

CHESTER 2-10 (DRAW BIAS L-M-H)

T§* – WHAT ABOUT CARLO….+12
* – MASTER OF FINANCE….+11
* – PERRAULT….+10
* – ENGLISH SUMMER….+10
* – SENNOCKIAN STAR….+10
T* – AMERICAN ARTIST….+9
T – DARSHANI….+2
§ – NOVELTY SEEKER….-5
§ – FELIX DE VEGA….-13 – 2ND 13/2
T§* – PERFECT CRACKER….-15 – 3RD 10/1
T – DARK RED….-30 – WON 11/2

NOTES: That’s a good start….I hope! Sitting top is a horse boasting all three icons and I already know where my first 20/80 of the new season is going. I like a horse racing at chester to have done so before and unfortunately, WHAT ABOUT CARLO hasn’t done so but, with just three in here having won at the Roodee before (ENGLISH SUMMER, SENNOCKIAN STAR, MASTER OF FINANCE), and FELIX DE VEGA the only other runner having tried to do so (0-2), I’ll not let that put me off as two of those previous winners will be in my dutch.

The pair joining WHAT ABOUT CARLO will be those drawn lowest of that trip of previous winners, MASTER OF FINANCE and ENGLISH SUMMER. The three are actually drawn 6, 7 and 8 but with Mark Johnston having two of them and with him also having booked Franny Norton to ride MASTER OF FINANCE, I’m happy enough with my play.

PERRAULT really caught my eye. Owned by Marwan Koukash (who will not be happy with that coffin draw), and trained by Richard Fahey, he is open to improvement, having raced just five times in his life. Had he been better drawn he would have been in my dutch but racing from 11 he’ll need a lot to go wrong with better drawn runners….which, of course, can happen here.

DARK RED….won or placed in six of his eight career races to date and on a roll but you would be thinking that he might need it slower….and he’s not well drawn.

DARSHANI….currently market leader 5.8 and a winner of three of his eight career starts so far. If it were to dry out to good to firm…the sun is already up and blazing through my office window….clear blue sky….he’ll be tough to beat but I’m not a fan of “SIR PERCY’S” and he’s upped in grade after winning on the Chelmsford sand on the 16th of April.

The lighter weighted unexposed horses could scupper things but, as I always say, until they’ve done it, they haven’t and I’ll play as suggested

DUTCH – WHAT ABOUT CARLO, MASTER OF FINANCE, ENGLISH SUMMER
20/80 – WHAT ABOUT CARLO
EXOTICS – WHAT ABOUT CARLO, MASTER OF FINANCE, ENGLISH SUMMER

RESULT

I’d been so looking forward to this one, my first bet of the new season but my cash was done the second the gates opened. WHAT ABOUT CARLO missed the break completely and that, was that.

I’d read the draw bias right….who couldn’t!….with two of the first three drawn right were you would want them. The winner though, my bottom rated, was unexposed and clearly still improving following his gelding operation.

That was the best figure I could provide for him though on the evidence I had in front of me and to beat that 10 draw he’s decent.

I was right about the bad favourite though and when Tippedtolose kicks off on Monday, I’m thinking we’ll have some fun with that.

CHESTER 5-25 (DRAW BIAS L-M-H)

T – SOLO HUNTER….+13
* – MODERNISM….+11
T§* – DANCE OF FIRE….+11 – 3RD 10/1
§* – LORD FRANKLIN….+9 – 4TH 20/1

* – ENERGIA FLAVIO….+9
T§ – EMIRATES AIRLINE….+8
§ – NEWERA….+6 – WON 5/1
* – BURANO….-8
* – TOP OF THE GLAS….-11
T* – MOONDAY SUN….-14
T – SARSTED….-18
§ – THE CHARACTER….-21
T – SPA’S DANCER….-35
MUSTAQQIL….-40

NOTES: I’m not getting the same feeling about this trace, that I have for that opener. This feels weaker and not just because it is a Class lower.

My top rated is 0-8 on the ground, 0-8 at the trip and 0-3 here. Drawn worst of all if he wins this, I’ll be stunned.

TOP OF THE GLAS is 1-1 here but just 1-10 on the ground and 0-5 at the trip and that’s the tale os this race wherever you look for stats to back up those figures….for instance, MODERNISM is 0-7 here and has poor going/trip stats, too.

All I can do here is trust to figures/icons. DANCE OF FIRE is sitting there with that trio of icons, third spot on my numbers behind a pair currently 0-11 at Chester and being one of those yet to race here (half the field qualify on that score), I’ll go 20/80.

For my dutch I’ll have LORD FRANKLIN, who has ground/draw right. He is a veteran of 50 races now though and seems to need a handful of runs before he finds winning form. I’ll also bring in MODERNISM, who really does look best of the rest despite poor track stats. I’ll take on board the fact he’s owned by Koukash and has actually placed here but my emphasis will be on that 20/80 and staking will be low.

DUTCH – MODERNISM, DANCE OF FIRE, LORD FRANKLIN
20/80 – DANCE OF FIRE
EXOTICS – MODERNISM, DANCE OF FIRE, LORD FRANKLIN

RESULT

Close but a gamble was well and truly landed. The winner was available at double figure prices in the morning.

Again the draw was read correctly (it really does pay to go low, regardless of trip), as three of the first four home, two of which were in my dutch, were drawn 1-2-3.

The OF INTEREST selections provided me with a decent enough profit on my first day of the season and I’m thankful for that.

Tomorrow we have seven races rated, from the four meetings taking place at Chester, Ascot, Nottingham and Ripon.

Fingers crossed additional profits follow.

About Ron Robinson

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